| (Click on a 'Start Time' to view the video) |
| 00:28 | hi hi Seth morning Club morning it's a little bit early for me but uh yes I think it is at 6am isn't it yep and it's uh 9am for us yeah when do you change uh to summertime we're just changed but I think they go in different directions as gets later it was makes you earlier so am I gonna have to keep getting up early so I mean this this is what we this is what we did last year this is exactly the same as we did last year evening Chris evening yeah there's no way around it I'm afraid that's an |
| 01:14 | Australia it pulls apart in time and there's no way around it yeah other than to do it in the for us in the morning and them in in their evening but that's a huge change for everybody yeah I mean I I've done Zoom calls with someone in Tasmania like uh from like seven in the morning in the UK and sort of early evening for them that's the other option yeah yeah my chat's not working is everyone else's um haven't looked at it yet looks alright to me it's opening there's nothing there but it's opened |
| 01:49 | hmm I haven't turned it off or anything I haven't done well actually that I've just clicked something to say do I did I accept the new terms of service yeah I'd do that as well so I I haven't got time to read those now so that's exactly yes how many people read them anyway I can't put in the the URL to the uh consensus document which Chris is added to overnight I noticed so you may have to find it for yourself if we get to that right I I'm not I don't know I've got mixed feelings about spending too long |
| 02:30 | on it with everybody so I think it should be done by a small a smaller group of people then it's great that uh so I'm just just getting the thing ready uh I mean Chris it's great that Chris is that you know spent obviously some time on it and got back to you well I I can I can put in most of Chris's uh amendments I think when I've when I've read them right um yeah it's not not something we should rush into I think it needs a little bit of a little bit of time and for people to look at it offline first perhaps |
| 03:03 | yeah yep yep yeah makes sense uh yeah right so yeah all right so well good evening everybody uh hi John evening hey Doug nice to see you again Doug you've got all that ice in your background [Laughter] yeah we need more ice more ice more ice yeah and John Nissen uh yeah [Music] um I feel for you John I mean you're fighting all the way that's uh we we let's see what the consensus I don't know we I don't think we're gonna get consensus but anyway let's see what happens um welcome everybody uh let's uh set our |
| 03:52 | agenda shall we uh okay so what do we want to talk about today thank you John John Nissen I'm sure there's something you'd like to talk about isn't there no yeah I said I sent a letter to uh James Hansen uh Jim Hansen yeah well I don't think I copied it to everybody um I was just keeping it to to brag for the moment do you want to discuss it or not uh well yeah why not all right this is Jim Henson should we friends should we talk about the meta Spence I think we've just been on yeah the ideas of metal Spencer are |
| 04:52 | totally in they cannot be realized as she thinks anyway but she's giving us some oxygen isn't she she's giving us some air time with her show which goes out is quite popular in in Canada I believe so uh uh let's hope there's some scientists there uh matter Spencer pug wash show we can talk about it too much she she wants yeah um I just you're saying hogwash we could say that but I think we should try and be polite wash the one to do with um sort of nuclear things that's been around for a |
| 05:39 | long time now or something different I think it has been around a long time and she's been talking the one I'm thinking of started the 1950s when scientists were concerned about nuclear bombs and things like that and they were looking to ways to uh sort of get countries to talk to each other and perhaps limit these things I think it would start I think it might have been started by sakurovan in the in Russia and one or two American well-known guys from that time okay uh yeah so she may have kept the same |
| 06:10 | kept the same name yep I don't want to say anything about [Laughter] she's she's not a young lady should we say so uh 1950s and so on um I've Just Seen uh that uh China has issued permits or uh a new 106 gigawatts of coal-fired power stations um that's a lot uh so I don't know I mean that's um and the UK has permitted um some oil field in the North Sea as well yeah yeah I mean it's something we could discuss um hustle fuel extraction I mean the thing on franz's mind very much and and mine I'm |
| 07:07 | looking forward to his he's doing a paper for me to you know go through is on black carbon and how we think we can color it white as it soon after it comes out the chimney uh and make it hydrophilic so it doesn't go up into the stratosphere and round into the Arctic where during the winter it prevents the heat from escaping and then it colors the Iceman eventually comes down and makes the eyes melt faster we think we can uh do something about that with our oxidative um aerosols but I think we said that |
| 07:39 | last time I don't want to keep repeating the same thing every time we could have a nice short meeting given that it's late for us in the UK in here in Europe is sewage discharged in the deep ocean um and I know it's been the news here the damage to Sydney beaches with the discharge to coastal areas of sewage and yeah makes you wonder whether you're better to do it further out and get some other benefits apart from damaging the local coastal areas yeah so it's just uh is it a better option than than a coastal where it |
| 08:21 | happens in many cases just a question there do you mean sewage or sewage sludge for two different things sewage sludge is much more concentrated and smaller in volume sewage per se there's vast volumes of liquid it's just too huge I mean I don't know how absolutely I mean Sydney alone would probably have I don't know 10 million liters a day or something yeah yeah Messier messy I think I think Sydney is in fact discharging raw sewage are they not John yeah they built some long stick outfalls some |
| 08:59 | years ago I know a little bit about that um a couple of Miles offshore yeah three three kilometers offshore yeah but they're treated it's not raw sewage it's not raw no it is partly treated and it's not they're taking a lot of the sludge but it's still it's still partly treated not fully treated so that's is it a better option to uh to take it and put it further out but you know I know this this there's various contaminants in there and but on balance is it a better option it's a |
| 09:33 | question okay so let's discuss that uh that sounds like a very good thing to discuss something we have yeah we could began talking about and we can develop that further yeah uh anything for you Sev uh not that I can think of at the moment yeah I've been talking with uh herb Simmons of hpac quite a bit in putting out some ideas for how we should properly assess a lot of these Technologies most of them are uh assessed very cursory or badly and you need to have very many separate criteria to do a proper evaluation |
| 10:21 | right okay uh criteria better evaluation yep okay yeah the only thing I was going to mention was that my forwarded to the noac list report that mentioned that basically they weren't worried about tipping points all the things that mattered were social issues have a look at that but I'm sort of somewhat outraged by how they dismissed all the Tipping issues of essentially no consequence in the next sort of 30 or 40 years or something like that yeah um what was the name of that report um it was from the Hamburg something or |
| 11:06 | other let me ask yourself a second to have a look yeah uh [Music] social Tipping Point yeah it was um the report Hamburg climate Futures Outlook was the name of the report the plausibility of 1.5 degrees limit to global warming social drivers and physical processes was a title okay they just call it Hamburg report no yeah yeah uh yeah yeah I think that's you forget time yeah yeah I'll come back to you sir yep I don't know if we'll need much discussion but I just came off of a zoom with a bunch of |
| 11:59 | kids and Michael Mann and it's it's it was done by Penn State it was called beginning to end the climate crisis a discussion with climate activists and the one thing that caught my attention was he he made a comment about CDR and then it's going to be something we'll do in the future therefore we shouldn't even talk about it so the point is Michael Mann is is a force yeah he's a negative force and he's got me riled up so anyway maybe we can spend a few minutes on that I don't know yeah |
| 12:36 | okay all right there's quite a bit there but lots okay can I test uh I'd add something to the better assessment of Technologies yeah uh we just put the need research uh for both stratospheric aerosol and uh and Marine Cloud brightening on optimizing deployment so where where do you place your ships at what times and you know what effects can you have and how do you avoid unwanted things it applies to uh where injecting any kind of aerosol at any height uh you've got you've got to know what the the air circulation is and |
| 13:33 | what's below um in the case of the stratosphere you're cooling below and the in the case of cloud brightening you are manipulating a weather system uh you've got to be able to anticipate what that effect is uh and anticipate the uh even the long-term effect so to make sure you're not doing anything wrong or to kind of improve it you know put a bit more in or put a bit less in or yeah okay got it yeah okay so we'll talk about that we'll talk about that um welcome herb are you there Hub yes howdy hi |
| 14:22 | uh anything for you to it we've got a long list of little things to discuss here well they might know I have nothing to add okay that's good um yeah something that goes through my mind every time I'm always invited to these other meetings but I'm so time restricted the fact that I don't turn up please don't take that I wouldn't like to be there if I had if I had well I could make time but then it means something else that you know I'm friends is expecting me to do or something anyway so let's start with |
| 14:55 | letter to Jim Hansen so uh John we may okay um Jim Hanson has written a paper called um uh global warming in the pipeline and it's a pre-print and uh he's invited responses but the latest response to some questions from uh Robert Chris uh was that he's uh if he wants announce it's going to delay delay the final paper so please uh so please not um so rather important impertinently uh I ignored that last thing and because I've been wanting to send something off to Jim Hanson ever since he wrote the paper |
| 15:52 | um to to suggest that the diagram that Doug and I um produced on behalf of Prague uh this is a dog hair um well I might might actually be helpful in pointing out the implications of what he said now the implications are that our temperatures going to carry on Rising uh the equilibrium temperature for a doubling of CO2 um was about three degrees I think according to ipcc and Jim Hansen says it could be up as much as 10 degrees but anyhow uh event points out that actually we are at Coq doubling if you take into account the CO2 equivalent |
| 16:54 | um so so it's it's doubled from 282 yeah 560. 560. so we're in for 10 degrees Yeah I make a typo but 360 but I think if you double 280 you get five yeah and yeah that's roughly where we are um and he's right about that um about what the 10 degrees or the don't they're about the doubling yeah yeah anyhow it's close enough to doubling now so even if we stopped emitting uh today the equilibrium temperature which yeah he rise rise um and he's also pointed out uh not so much in this paper but previous |
| 17:44 | pointed out that uh we can expect a doubling and the rate of um warming because we've taken SO2 we're taking out of the atmosphere yeah um that's something we put on our diagram uh we I I believe for a long time that the equivalent temperature was was way above where we are now and essentially the the rate of warming is proportional to the amount of greenhouse gas pulsing less SO2 forcing and then you have the long-term feedbacks positive feedbacks from more CO2 from warmed soil and more methane yeah there's some some |
| 18:34 | feedbacks but just neglecting that the the basic thing is is proportional um and you can you can point out to uh that the Keeling curve has been rising uh ever so much that that might flatten out a bit due to huge efforts to try and reduce fossil fuel emissions but they're still going to get a a growth it'll be it'll be a flatter than it was so not curved up so much and the forecast from I didn't mention this in the paper it's a handsome but the forecast for uh emissions from the official body |
| 19:30 | of the NS energy industry it's a slight decline in the missions between now 2050 from 370 um well no sorry 37 billion tons and CO2 down to 32. um so but in the paper but what I was saying in my uh letter to Anson is that he uh I I started off um pointing out that I followed him on the email I stopped the degree written about storms from my grandchildren that kind of thing one of those papers uh and I'd submitted some comments for that so I was like that's how I kind of introduced myself in case he actually |
| 20:25 | remembered me it's just possible um uh then I talked about the the um weather extremes and how so physics suggests that if you uh have rapid warming in the Arctic you uh you disturbed the jet stream behavior in the behaves more like yeah he knows about all this I mean did you say anything about Strasberg aerosol injection to him uh yes um and then the implication of that is that you uh you need to and to apply recruiting rapidly and particularly to the Arctic yeah and then I go on to say well I've we've |
| 21:20 | tried to put this uh in simple terms or in the diagram so the things that I've already talked about and then uh it's a question for him to adopt your diagram or as an infinite that's right so I'd say you know hopefully this helped this diagram can help you yeah show the implications of what you're saying about right yeah what's going to happen it can't be very interesting that would be very lovely thing if he adopts that diagram yeah yes okay well um anyhow that's what I've |
| 21:59 | done right thank you thank you John uh yeah I I can I can send you um a HVAC around there a letter as well but I I wanted Justice to keep it to Prague as far as that's why I mean that diagram um if that's the same one that was going around about a week or so ago I thought it would look pretty good yeah yes um Doug I just wanted to uh hitchhike what John said the diagram is in the lower left in my background that orange area is the critical area of it the point I want to make about this is that Hanson has that diagram from you |
| 22:41 | know one or two iterations about a year ago we sent it to him and he said he was too busy just wait so we just have to wait but the point I want to show here is that the uh the trend to 10 degrees if I can get that with my hand I don't know is it's going asymptotic to the red line at the top which is 10 degrees and as a as a non-scientist you know trying to make sense out of this and basically I I've concluded that it's just a mathematical concept that that's the trajectory we're on right now but not necessarily where |
| 23:16 | we're going to end up so really what what matters is right over if I could show this or my shoulders this area right here and uh it it lines up Jim Hansen's curve lines up with our curve so we shouldn't have a problem with him accepting the curve that's all I want to say yeah okay all right fair enough um okay let's uh thank you both let's let's just wanted to make a comment Sean um have you thought about writing to one of the other authors of of the uh pipeline paper there's about a dozen of |
| 23:54 | them and you may get more responsiveness um because it's clear that I mean uh wait Mike McCracken uh wrote on behalf of hpac to to Hanson to ask him to come to our meeting about three months ago and he you know he had the same response you know talk to me after I finished the paper and after I finish the book um so anyway I just suggest that you may want and also as some of you may remember the brief interchange that I had with Hanson on Twitter um where he basically acknowledged that um some of the other co-authors may not |
| 24:28 | be quite as uh uh you know be in the same place as he is in terms of uh advocating for uh uh Geo engineering or whatever so anyway just throw that out that you may you may get some response or nudge them a little bit um because he's you know he's not he's only one co-author as important as he is and he clear he seemed to clearly trim his sales a little bit on this paper um uh yeah um yeah that's a very interesting idea isn't it um do you know any of them I mean I could do it just oh I mean I I looked the only |
| 25:09 | one I know of some of you may know him is is Leon Simons who's you know who's whose focus seems to be he's at the club of Rome or he's associated with it and his associate his research has been on the um uh the heating up that's occurring in the oceans as a result of the switch to low sulfur Fuel and he uh you know he writes about that on Twitter you know every day or so so I assume that that was his contribution to the paper but I I don't know anything about any of the other folks except what I |
| 25:41 | read about them in the you know in the author bios um well uh that's a very good tip so he he's um on board with the effect of reduced uh sa2 emissions yeah very much though he he makes it very clear in his writings that there's still an enormous uh uh uncertainty about what the magnitude of that is but um and and uh lately in fact this recently is an hour ago he posted on Twitter the average temperature I I remember is the North Pacific or the North Atlantic was like an all-time record for this this time of year |
| 26:26 | um 21.3 degrees C something like that and that you know the the graph of each year the temperature the average ocean temperature in that area for the last 20 years I mean this is like weight I mean it's nothing funny it's it's it's zooming way up there as early as you know April April 1st and he's quite alarmed and seems to at least suggest that that certainly could be related to the um reduction in the in Sulfur fuels for shipping no it's probably not the only Factor yeah there'll be loads of factors there |
| 27:00 | yeah and yeah you know you usually is this the Pacific specifically uh I think it was the Atlantic uh I'll I'll I'll check while we're on the call and let you know and this is a worry for ice melt isn't it because that warm water will go up in the Gulf Stream and end up in Greenland and melt the ice from underneath yep yep what's his name Simon what Leon Simons okay anyhow he's Dutch yeah uh if you could post a link or something or his email address in the chat that would be brilliant |
| 27:43 | uh yeah yeah yeah yeah he just earlier today his post where he showed that chart I'll see if I could figure out how to put it in the chat his his comment was this is starting to get ridiculous Global oceans have never been this warm 20.1 degrees C uh does this help people outside the aerosol and Earth Energy imbalanced Community understand the effects of reducing sulfur emissions over the oceans hmm yeah yeah uh probably not yeah uh but uh but we're aware of it yeah yes yeah one of the things that uh this is better than aside |
| 28:27 | but the uh there's a demonstration of how as I how much uh SO2 cooling there has been in the past because the global warming went up uh until the 40s uh and so did Arctic warming uh even faster and then uh and then it went down again to about uh 1970. can you set put a link I want to move on because this was yeah half an hour and still on the first thing John could you if you can find something about that that demonstration uh the effects it's amazing that would be quite good to see yeah yeah the implication is that uh |
| 29:22 | there was a heck of a lot of of um SO2 emitted um and it would be mainly omitted in in wall warplaces so in in the second world war yeah Northern Hemisphere us Europe yeah it actually had a cooling effect on the ocean yeah because of all the SO2 and and called the Arctic right gigantification uh in Reverse right so even though it's tropospheric uh clouds yeah yeah I guess because it called the called the water and so yeah so that cool water would have been flowing into the Arctic yeah but yes if you can find it John that'd |
| 30:08 | be good yeah okay thank you for that um Brian should we say let's just briefly say about this uh meeting we just had with meta which is yeah they want to criticize too hard but there was a sort of we were a bit perplexed at the end weren't we yeah do you want to say something about it um do you think of the uh uh she wants uh an ice a Frozen uh maybe I should say sorry friends maybe I should is it better if I say better yeah yes surely yeah as we we spent meant to be an hour and um she wants to hear about iron sold aerosol |
| 31:01 | and Stephen Salter was there as well yeah but uh how how can iron salt aerosol and meat and Marine Cloud brightening uh re-freeze Hudson Bay which is a huge um piece of air water uh in Canada within sort of Canada on the edge and um and uh she had a rather critical woman there who was very good she was she was she was a science scientist um asking good questions I thought um and then at the end uh meta said um well you need to actually refreeze the ice because it's you you say you can reduce the temperature but you actually need to |
| 31:43 | refreeze the ice you know you need to demonstrate ice getting re-frozen only that can demonstrate yeah uh your your process yeah otherwise the locals won't be impressed yeah they look they're they're losing their their you know um livelihoods and everything they can't go fishing they can't go on the ice anymore so so anyway several years ago I put a uh a nice Shield uh program up to the uh some of the scientists at uh at one of the the University of Manitoba and that that showed that you could |
| 32:22 | Breeze Hudson Bay using the ice shields but they they didn't take it up they didn't take it up yeah okay I I took up with the minister and the university folk in fact uh sir David King has set up a Au Wang's Institute but even then he wasn't interested in doing it yeah so I think this thing about Outreach and scientists explaining and you know reaching out to other scientists is so important because uh I mean matters in a way she's done us a favor because she's explained that this is what the locals expect and if we can't |
| 33:02 | deliver it then you know we can't rely on the locals so that there needs to be you know it's broad scientific support and consensus that you know and people that the government's trust but the governments to make a decision because the governments are not going to know either but but cheap one uh that's the The Ice should produce within the uh the first trials yes only that could uh yeah convince it but unfortunately her scientific woman agreed with us that uh that that's not practical and I said |
| 33:38 | it'd be scary if we could certainly be free Adele Buckley Buckley yeah yes yeah so let's see what that produces uh when that goes out uh no doubt she'll sort of have to edit it and then she'll um uh present you know she'll put it live okay oh yes so the advantage of Hudson Bay is it's completely controlled by candidates the largest bay in the world that's controlled by one jurisdiction so if Canada wants to do it that's it's probably a good place to to trial um yeah yeah so we'll we'll we sort of |
| 34:19 | we're um pursuing several uh threads should we say um yeah I mean I I feel like probably rushing through these um I mean I just mentioned at the start that I saw a year I've just seen I watched these videos that come out one a day about China and this one happened to say that um the Chinese government has just issued permits for 106 gigawatts 106 new gigawatts of coal-fired power um which I don't know quite how but that translates into two new coal-fired power power stations a week being built that |
| 35:00 | have done if that's over a year or what um so and it's been in my mind that all these batteries for electric vehicles try to turn this off again uh electric vehicles and uh people want batteries for grid scale battery which is not really practical oh even just EVS it needs a huge amount of lithium and that requires a huge amount of processing and what I've seen is that EVS are essentially carbon bombs you know they you emit huge amounts of CO2 to make them and then as long as they run on renewable energy once you get up to |
| 35:42 | about 60 000 miles you're um at break-even point and then from that point on you're actually emitting less uh greenhouse gases um but if the world is going to make you know I don't know how many billion a billion whatever electric vehicles so everyone can have an electric car by the end of the end of the decade that's going to put an awful of CO2 into the atmosphere to do the processing metal processing anyway um so these people that say oh yes emissions are going to come back down to 32. are they really looking at China and |
| 36:23 | the develop and the rest of the developing world as well I think we're we're in for problems we're in for that's my opinion anyway yeah I think Clive interestingly uh I came across a report from the Tyndall Institute of Manchester today called keeping 1.5 degrees alive and they said in that for a 50 50 chance of not exceeding 1. |
| 36:47 | 5 degrees the carbon budget equates to 10 years of current emissions for a 67 chance or better of 1.5 degrees this Falls to seven years and then they go on to say that for coal Coal production needs to Fall by 50 within five years and be effectively eliminated by 2030. well China's not going there is it no not far from it um yeah so it's it's it's it's difficult to connect with all parts of the world but that's necessary if a global view isn't taken then it's just not worth the paper it's written up |
| 37:21 | uh Hanson points out that uh he even with um uh if a message went to zero today that you're going to bust uh 1.5 uh within a decade yeah willy-nilly so it's really immaterial about you know China building these things yeah and so on this we're going to passed it well we may bust it much sooner John because if we get a good El Nino um we're probably going to do it in about two years exactly so you know yeah that's why I said within 10 years it might be like what happened two years yeah that's what worries me two years is |
| 38:12 | is it it's all a masculation of the Tipping Point processes When Things become critical though the kind of critical point for Greenland is is when the glaciers start uh tumbling into the water kind of avalanche is rather than just watching a bit faster each year yeah and the Tipping Point on the atmosphere is is when you get a re-re-distribution uh recirculation a total when the Arctic for example becomes a not normally a point of where the atmosphere us us ends instead of this ends so you could have a uh the Arctic |
| 39:08 | Central Ocean warming the atmosphere and keeping the atmosphere above the temperature of the surrounding complex so you get a complete wreath re-jig of the uh of the Earth's atmospheric circulation so there's a kind of Tipping Point but it but there's it's typically difficult to with the atmosphere to talk about uh a Tipping Point as a point or an event because [Music] um we are already getting uh periods whether when the Arctic Central Arctic is is warming and it leads to what's known as a sudden |
| 39:57 | stratospheric uh warming event so people who studied a Stratosphere noticed this but actually it starts from ground level and it's indicating that the you know the the Arctic is is warming astonishingly vast and the central Arctic because it's worn by the sea for much of the Year may warm to higher temperatures than the surrounding lot yeah because so friends do you have an idea or anyone that knows about Brewer Dobson circulation on the Arctic Hayes we're talking about you know recommending that people put |
| 40:39 | something uh you know above their chimney or in their chimney to turn this black carbon White uh and so the black carbon stops at least from though from the you know a lot of it from coal-fired Power stations stops going up and over on onto the Arctic but do you know how how long would would could we expect it to clear in the Arctic would it be three years five years ten years the the Brewer adoption uh circulation is not very fast it's rather slow yeah so several years takes for instance uh they're down |
| 41:18 | going um when it comes to the poles and goes down yeah yeah it's it's a millimeters per minute millimeters per minute right yeah good evening Ah that's Rebecca hello everybody Hello nice to meet you in person I've been seeing your emails would you like to introduce yourself could you introduce yourself very briefly please am I on mute or not no you can hear you loud and clear oh good well I live in Sydney Australia and I'm Economist and I came into this group through my friend Robbie tulip who |
| 42:02 | John was also there in like two jobs were there last night when he spoke to our Canberra Presbytery and I'm more of a generalist but I have an interest in understanding what's happening okay all right thank you very much thanks um okay uh anything else to say on on um on fossil fuel extraction General warming and um black carbon we've got a paper one one one remark to the black carbon it said that uh one paper says the black carbon in this on the snow is much more effective in warming than uh the CO2 warming much more effective than we're |
| 43:01 | watching the CO2 yeah do you have an idea existing the existing yeah did they give any indication of quantity like five times more effective or twice or ten times more they do they do but I I read this paper today so yeah I I haven't been so much yeah okay yeah so that would be a good thing to put in our paper but another on the south a poll in the Antarctic only in the Arctic because the the Brewer adoption brings all the northern hemisphere yeah there's not so many carbon into yeah yeah so there's a there'll be a little bit |
| 43:50 | from South Africa there'll be a little be a little bit from South America yeah some some uh in Africa you have more a wildfire smoke I think right yeah but nothing like the volume Australia for instance yeah I think they had a horrific parse in Canada and also in Moscow and and uh in in other parts of Russia at other times so that's going to go some of that's going to go into the Arctic yes yes really also there yeah yeah and black on the Himalayas presumably a bit Yeah but uh can I can I just ask uh ask Clive a point because |
| 44:44 | you started this agenda item saying that you could somehow you could whiten yes the carbon particles I I don't remember hearing how you did that Brands will explain um not in detail I can't do it now not in detail but uh it's it it can be made with the same ingredients we use for Misan depletion the ISA and uh etawah contains these um a graphene plate and they attract these precursors we use for Turbo and also yeah so and you don't need much |
| 45:53 | to color them a little bit whitish or you you you're only a need to uh reduces photo for raises effect which drives them up into the troposphere and into this Stratosphere yeah in which they get heated up by the sun which makes them rise and yeah because they're hydrophobic they don't get rained out or even frozen out they end up right up in the stratosphere and so they go all the way around so so if they if that effect can be removed so that and and they made a little bit more hydrophilic then they get rained out |
| 46:32 | like everything else and they they there's not enough heating to take them up and Isa are in the sunshine very strong oxidants and they oxidize they graphene the anomaly hydrophobic graphene water repelling and make them very hydrophilic so they can you be used as a cloud condensation nuclei yeah still even do a little bit of cooling with clouds go from warming to cooling yes yeah well that sounds brilliant yeah yeah it is it is you are right that's why you're working so hard on on your paper friends well yeah your paper |
| 47:34 | which I've been looking at and yeah so so I need to convince you France that the uh it stratospheric aerosol injection isn't going to ruin this huge opportunity yeah you know um yeah I don't think it is I think it's it's going to be quite a simple effect the the suit particles they attract uh all kind of inorganic and organic kind of uh chlorine and the bromine and urine and they shuttle them to the stratosphere and there they get off from this load and uh you know the the and makes their own |
| 48:23 | layer depleted and as you know the ozone hole hasn't been become closed it's it's nearly as open as in the baddest times now yeah but that's in this in the Antarctic isn't it despised despite uh the the Montreal protocol which uh reduced the uh hello again missing emissions so is there an ozone hole opening up over the Arctic a little bit now uh we we in former times we had no ozone hole over the uh Arctic yes but now we have yeah since two years or three years yeah yeah yes yeah yeah so uh it's there's this uh but so |
| 49:28 | friends if if they do a little bit of stratospheric aerosol injection over the is it 50 degrees north into the into the polar region yeah just a little bit I don't know if if it can be restricted yeah well that's exactly what um Doug Martin um who's who's my Guru on let us back aerosol injection uh co-author of the the paper about uh subpolar stratospheric aerosol injection uh he he says that he's restricting he can restrict but the lifetime of the of the aerosol to about uh five months so if you injecting |
| 50:17 | spring or early summer it's gone by the end of winter did the um ozone depletion reaction is a is rather remarkable because it's it's it temperature critical it's the temperature has to be lower than a certain amount and it only gets down to that temperature at the end of winter the coldest time of year yeah John do you have an idea about the velocity of the of the Brew adoption I was very interested in yours I I think it is something like that it's it's descending it's very slow because it um |
| 50:59 | if you inject at the equator it gets to the pole in the in the year and a half that's the figure I've read um so it's it's pretty slow now that's the uh north-south component the meridian Meridian uh component the East-West or the zonal component is maybe much much faster and uh so hopefully when you inject as a point it it smears out uh with a it'll be going uh Eastward I think or or sure but um a little bit it'll be smeared out yeah yeah because as it goes as it is this is the Coriolis thing isn't it because it goes |
| 52:00 | north it then it's skewed over to the side yeah it'll be skewed over to the to the east yeah yeah that makes sense yeah okay ah that sounded potentially rather useful conversation um sorry yeah it's right here I'm walking as usual but uh so there's the Montreal there's a report on uh from the Montreal uh Commission that I I maybe uh you know uh John and uh and uh France are familiar with but uh they also note that the um Sai would include increase the ozone you know it depends on the hemisphere and the time |
| 52:39 | of the year they know they had a slight effect you know I think in in uh I think it was October increasing the ozone in the Antarctic if it was this is for Polar uh Sai but then they had a increase in Ozone in the northern hemisphere over other months so it doesn't seem in the in the and the decline was not um it brought us back to 1990s levels and they you know if we if we ramp up the the um elimination against uh ozone depleting uh chemicals you know presumably uh that could be uh offset at least at least |
| 53:26 | somewhat so I'm just I'm just pointing this out because this ozone depletion thing is often raised it's a you know as one of the the risks of Sai and Aquarium Montreal protocol for solar for Polar deployment they just did Antarctica because they were they were concerned about the effects on the ozone there uh it the it's a very mixed a very mixed outcome is what they report from from modeling so I just wanted to throw that in there yeah okay thank you do you have a reference to the to that room uh it's |
| 54:03 | the if you go to the Montreal protocol and look at their report on Sai their most recent report an essay it's very short I I actually posted something on this and just uh you know posted the the relevant paragraphs the summary uh but yeah it's just you posted it on hpac did you right uh yeah each pack and and probably uh uh uh Prague Etc somewhere in there there's a post yeah thanks Ron that's useful okay yep all right let's move on uh we've got 20 35 minutes um so I think might not have time to do |
| 54:46 | all this what should we do uh sewage discharge um well you're next John let's let's do do uh this uh this is very interesting actually about the effect of uh yeah sewage uh coastal areas versus much further out in Abyssal Waters yeah well if you live near the coast the treated sewage has probably been discharged into the into the ocean and uh but the trouble is at times of high rainfall it's less treated and if you're swimming at Bondi that's not not fantastic uh I mean they put it they put |
| 55:23 | about uh like Olympic pools out there a day into about 80 meters of water about three kilometers offshore off Sydney and Rebecca probably knows more about this to me because I'm I'm in Melbourne but it's uh I mean I know in the states it's prohibited to do it within untreated sewage within three miles offshore but there's a lot of countries that put a lot of seeds into Coastal Waters uh treated sewage even and okay okay there's a cost but if that was taken out further if Paul carries or whatever then |
| 55:56 | maybe it would be a benefit for the deeper oceans the where the nutrients would be valuable I mean there's a there are issues with infectious diseases and contraceptives and badabotics and all those sorts of things which are difficult to filter out I understand that um that's that's the bit but it's a hell of a dilution factor obviously yeah is it a positive on balance or a negative uh is it worth looking at uh you know and would they wouldn't be cost effective obviously to do it is expensive |
| 56:27 | but um I know a little bit about it because I designed the first building in Melbourne with first black water treatment system and we and which we actually was was so good that we tried on a race course and the grass didn't grow because we treated too well we all had a bit of a drink of it too but we always survived but but they they are on earth did you do that well we have to prove that it was it was playing this oh I said about to explain something John does it okay that explains everything do you have something to say about that |
| 57:00 | then Chris yeah well sewage discharge is something I've had a lot of dealings with sewage sludge in my career um and a more limited amount with sewage discharges itself um but if you want to discharge put sewage a lot further offshore how are you going to do it you mean long pipes or do you mean ships I mean I think the sheer volume will make it impractical um unless you have a separate sewer system I. |
| 57:32 | E you keep the rain water out of your sewage system 100 yeah because then your volumes will be much less particularly when it rains obviously um that's a problem we have in UK currently as uh and the UK folks will know I will be well aware of it's quite a Hot Topic in the UK at the moment so it overflows in Rain um so I think practically it's probably not on um if you want to if you want to do it by search large then you've got to have a bit of a problem because in October last year the London convention London |
| 58:06 | protocol agreed to remove sewage sludge from the list of committed waste for disposal at Sea so that hasn't happened yet but it will do in the meeting later this year I imagine so that will be banned effectively then if you're a member of those instruments obviously um so yeah and I think the other problem though is there's a lot of stuff in sewage even if you could practically ship it or pipe it or whatever to make it acceptable I think would be extremely costly and also there's big issues with putting |
| 58:40 | a load of stuff like viruses and bacteria out there which are not natural to the environment there at all um besides the contaminants and um none of our sewage systems are free of contaminants uh at some level it's very difficult to treat out completely those nasties from it and that's that's expensive as well and you've got a white ocean the oxygenation uh obviously depletion of oxygen you've got to you you wouldn't want you want want healthy algal blooms if if it is going to cause the alcohol Bloom so |
| 59:14 | there's all those questions uh yeah I mean the other thing some folks have suggested we really we ought to be recovering the nutrients and stuff from it and using it on land to save the resources for nutrients to things like phosphate which are going to run out a few decades or something because the phosphates as good resources in the globe are limited well there's a there's a toilet in the middle of Mumbai where you get paid to leave a deposit because the Indians worked out that the the quantity of |
| 59:42 | human excrement is exactly equal to the amount of fertile fertilizer they need on their lands so as a as a principle they pay you to leave a deposit yeah goes back a bit to the um I think it was the Victorian or even older schemes that were around when the well the the Chinese in particular didn't they um put stuff back on the land regularly it was the Medieval China was polite to leave a deposit so if you went to dinner at someone's place the vegetable garden yeah there's value in that nutrient s yeah |
| 1:00:26 | yes yeah um I I do know some people who've um been clearing up her lakes that have got a lot of contaminants and they use diatoms that are very successfully um they've done work in China or one of the huge Lakes there where the fishing industry is more or less collapsed in the lake and there's kind of restoring getting it back to normal purchasing awesome yeah I mean in in the UK there used to be barges sailing barges that went from London they took all the horse manure from the streets apparently uh to the |
| 1:01:16 | fields in East Anglia yeah and then picked up hay from the fields and brought it back to London for the horses no no why they can't well I suppose to bring money horses anymore that's the reason okay um okay well we let we learn some sometimes there are opportunities and sometimes we just we save time when we know that okay not that then um yeah Sev better assessment of Technologies and criteria for evaluation yeah um most of the uh better known Technologies um haven't really had a proper assessment about uh how good and |
| 1:02:00 | effective they are and when they do they only use a typically a handful of of criteria I've put up on the chat a list of about 30 possible criteria which you might which we might want to use for assessing which of our direct cooling uh uh methods uh uh to be favored and if you just like to run down and just see whether anyone disagrees with the ones I've got can't see anything in the chat I can only see a couple of things from herb nothing from you serving the chat well my chat shows uh right at the top |
| 1:02:42 | uh shows a whole whole list of things no nothing in there nothing at all you sure you didn't send it to one person or something um so this is odd that's not so you're saying that uh you've got a load you've got a whole lot John can you see whether John McDonald can you see whether you I said adjust to you to everyone yeah I I can see a full list there okay I must have sent it to him to only to to John I'll I'll send it again to everyone right that okay okay right here we go there we go |
| 1:03:23 | I I haven't had anything from you Steph nothing's arrived see this goes to everyone oh oh maybe maybe we've got a sentence I'm sorry it's all in in caps it was in a in an email so it doesn't read really okay well I think I can copy into a document make it life easier yes yeah let's let's do that um yeah one of the main problems with with any uh intervention is actually establishing the dimensions of the problem to be solved I you know you need a good specification of the problem |
| 1:04:12 | in engineering terms uh I mean this is one of the problems about deciding between Marine Cloud brightening and statistic aerosol injection for the Arctic we don't know actually how how much the Arctic has been warmed and how much could mean you are going to need to reverse it so Stephen uh Stephen has calculated how much uh cooling power you need to re-freeze the ice that's melted [Music] could produce that cooking path but I've said that you know a worse case calculation now it says that you've got to counter |
| 1:05:04 | the the heat the Albedo loss eat the heating through Albedo loss which could be amount to one watt per square meter that's average globally so locally it's going to be 10 watts per square meter or wall um because it's over you know a tenth of the Earth's surface or all that oh I see what you mean yeah um so you're going to need uh perhaps half a Peter walk of cooling in the Arctic in the Arctic nice to have to overcome near Albedo loss and then you've got to add on to that okay A bit more cooling to get the |
| 1:05:51 | the okay and so the principle as regards excuse me what um service saying what's the principle that's related to what services you need the time dimensional on uh engineering Dimensions okay we need okay that's okay that needs to be you can't evaluate anything in this yes you need to size the thing yeah yeah fair enough so and the scale and things yeah yeah and also there's of course the topological uh or Geographic implications for different methods as well right yeah this is a great place so you can |
| 1:06:34 | only take a nice where there's ice to thicken uh so you can get you might get locally huge effects but it's difficult to scale on and you can only bright Marine clouds whether or Marines not flowers yes all that kind of thing all that kind of thing yeah yeah but I think that all that all goes into the calculation too which I did on Marine Cloud brightness making various estimates okay right and arrived at the Marine Cloud brightly could probably produce can we get onto the list rather than listening yeah let's look at this |
| 1:07:17 | um what do you want to go to say some things about the list um said we've got Chris with his hand up I've got a general Point yep um like these are all a lot of these seem very sensible things that you need to evaluate but of course to be able to evaluate these you actually need some basic information which in some cases is lacking I'm not saying it is in all cases by any means but you need that the information to be able to answer those questions and actually address those points and that's the first step you |
| 1:07:46 | need before you can evaluate you've got to have the data on some form or other even if it's fairly preliminary basic because in fact you'll probably have to evaluate the things at more than one stage when you've got very basic information you can do an evaluation when you've got better information you can do a better job yeah but quite a lot of it can be done from a theoretical point of view yes it does need to be checked out with it with real data well Frank theoretical on its own won't cut the ice very much |
| 1:08:13 | frankly not with not if you actually want to get out and and do a ask for a permit say to do something say theoretical things and I've done I've done no small scale trials but I want to go and do something yeah what I'm talking about Chris here is for for uh hpac and us and Prague if we wish to work out which of the very large number of methods we want to go for which which look look the best how can we we knock out some of the sillier ones like Dak and Becks well again it depends on your point of |
| 1:08:49 | view to some extent um uh I think also um what was it uh yeah I mean you do need some basic information but some of these techniques uh will probably [Music] um change with time as you've said in one of your noet consensus points don't just discard things because you don't you know you don't succeed at first further research can change the picture on things of course so be a bit careful about throwing things out completely but at the moment we're having about more than 10 billion dollars a year |
| 1:09:29 | spent on on just one of these and next to nothing spend hours on Albedo enhancement things oh agreed yeah yeah yeah yeah agree yeah I mean but at the moment I think it's it's still generally people think it's too early to do um to get down to focus on in general not just the cooling techniques but do engineering generally to focus on saying these are the winners here's one two three we should do those um people would say it's far too early to do that we need to have a broader spectrum of research to be able to |
| 1:10:01 | narrow down at some point you do need to narrow down I agree I think seb's idea brilliant um let let's compare the cooling by emissions reduction cooling by CDR including by methane removal and compare those with direct cooling methods time scale dimensions engineering considerations and so on and we could do it specifically for the optic or do it verbal warming yeah and do a comparison and produce a paper John if I could uh one of the one of the issues I keep harping on this again but but in some cases you can use you know a |
| 1:10:58 | waste heat for for a DAC and other cases you can you can generate energy and cool uh uh with otek I mean they're they're they're techniques that there's also the you know the specific environmental and economic possible economic benefits from some from techniques that have multiple outcomes so I think it's you know it makes so it's it's it then that has to be taken into account co-benefits yeah okay yeah I think the other point is I mean some techniques have been criticized because they need a |
| 1:11:32 | lot of energy but in fact some of them could probably use renewable energy which gets over some of those problems so it's not as simple as just saying something needs a lot of energy full stop that's not a sort of a valid argument in itself you need to break it down a bit more great I mean I've I've done a bit of that I said anyway um well who's going to do it John do you have time to do some some preliminary uh work on that and to say what do you what you've just said as regards these |
| 1:12:04 | different Technologies or have you already done it I think we've already come to conclusion yeah a bit better somebody who's not I'm so biased towards yeah I think I think I I think I mean I tend to think um strategory there is a soul injection yeah probably even but I have no reason to distrust the energy and the effectiveness and so forth it's just the concerns about about safety but I mean if if France is and you are sort of just generally just about seeing eye to eye that it they it would come |
| 1:12:41 | out of the atmosphere within sort of five or six months um at just the right time then I don't have a problem yeah so see the senses so the next point in the agenda can we move on to that sure um isn't this there's any anything else did you want to say any more about server or anyone no I I just put that up I'm saying that just there are a lot of things which you need to consider Ed most of the Venture capitalists and whatever who've been funding some of these other things haven't done that that comparison right |
| 1:13:21 | it's you know been a a very poorly conceived set of Investments That would be it's be quite a good paper in itself to do um your list your checklist is 20 minutes yeah yeah you know that that reminds me if I could Clive there I'm wondering what people feel about incorporating to some degree if not fully the approach that the ipcc uses when they talk about is it is it the confidence level um for a particular finding high confidence uh medium confidence low confidence and the confidence may not be the right word but and then there's also |
| 1:14:02 | I think the degree of of um uh I forgot again the term now but the degree of consensus around it so that as these papers are written or as these analysis analyzes are being done would be of helpful at least to me to be able to see you know an assertion that you know this has low confidence this is high you know so that you know everything is not I mean this that's a broader question I have in terms of of obviously that would take more work in terms of putting it together but I just wonder from those of you who have more |
| 1:14:36 | experience than I do with that kind of approach whether you feel that would be helpful in in regard to our work I I think as small for me I think a small amount of headline information that's easy to sort of consume cost and and uh sort of headline stuff what I'm reminded of here what was reminded when you're saying that is um I was around at the early days of of personal computers and uh what I remember was uh the big question you know what what um office you know what word processor should be used or what should be used to |
| 1:15:16 | do to run the office and I heard about this company that went to eminent group of Consultants they paid a lot of money for a big analysis to be done and they wanted to do this kind of you know database and this kind of whatever it was and they paid a lot of money and they were told this is what the system you should use and it was some expensive thing that no one had heard of everybody else didn't even think about it and they just went and bought Microsoft Windows and they did absolutely fine and all these other people were end up in a |
| 1:15:46 | blind alley so so much depends on the team you know and how well it's you know I mean in the case of Microsoft nothing to say about the company in particular but that's that's where we all went in the end because somehow or other he he managed to get get the market there's a lot of it's just the way a business operates and whether it can grab the market whether it can grab the funding yeah so I think that's a that's a big part of it so we those of us with these wonderful ideas we have to turn that |
| 1:16:18 | into some sort of business that's that attracts money I think that's my comment let's move on then uh like if I if I introduced to Herb's Point um uh and that this is this is following up on a lot of you know what Mike keeps saying that's a that's a statistical it's kind of like uh you know the five percent confidence interval for 95 confidence interval and fiber you know that so it it leads to a very cautious uh you know in some way and and it doesn't really evaluate risk so much as confidence levels I mean I I |
| 1:16:55 | don't know I I think it's it's modeled on statistical uh that that you know standard methodology which is a problem because it leads to the super cautious we won't do anything unless we you know we have a 95 you know uh or just a you know a very low risk of of error in our in our in our prediction so anyway but I I think you you I think the idea is good in terms of you know what uh what Clive was pointing out just some kind of headline in terms of you know what the broad Community thinks or something but |
| 1:17:27 | when you get into these super accurate statistical things it it's one of the problems with with you know scientists you know they they can't say anything unless they they have less than a five percent chance of of being wrong and that means that you know everything's happening much faster than the the the high confidence predictions of the ipcc a lot of the high high confidence is is a travesty because they what they're comparing is all the models that produce if the if their models all produce the |
| 1:18:01 | same answer they say that that indicates very high confidence and they discard the outliers now the outliers outline models are the ones that take into account positive feedback and of course once you try and do that your models get all sorts of different results so they're all treated as outliers and so the ipcc finishes up with high confidence but you know um with the uh yeah we'll get up much higher under certain emissions and scenarios and than another one yeah I mean if I could I I know you want to get on Just quickly yeah I |
| 1:18:44 | wasn't defending the IPC conclusions I was just saying that an approach like that so that if analysis that someone here does that the cost of Sai or something else is expected to be 5 billion does that have a lot of data behind it or not is it do you have a high confidence level it has nothing to do with the 95 because that that's your usually relates to you know a randomized controlled trial where you look at one arm versus the other uh this is really you know is this a something I pick out out of my ass or is this something based |
| 1:19:18 | on a lot of data that's out there that's all when you do the engineering calculations you usually get an estimate of some kind of value and then you put a plus or minus on it and that's that's quite uh satisfactory yeah but we're talking about I've just put a link in the chat to the you ipcc uncertainty guidance and figure one in there is interesting I think because it shows a um let me look at it in a minute it shows a little diagram where you have level of agreement on one axis against |
| 1:19:52 | evidence on the other so you can have things like high agreement limited evidence or low agreement mediums or whatever so that's a very simple way of doing it without putting any statistical sort of stuff in it it's it is a judgment of course but it still could be useful um yeah yeah one last thing if I could and that is that that more and more in the uh medical research Community I think there's a I don't know if anybody's seen it I think there's five levels of evidence so you know if your doctor |
| 1:20:24 | prescribes you with X antibiotic is that level of evidence two three four five is there you know five might be a randomized trial two might be anecdotes one might be you know researching curing an infection in hamsters or whatever but but at least you know there's some degree of of of of uh understanding of the basis for a particular recommendation that sounds very potentially very helpful to to go to another discipline where there's a huge uncertainty and see what they do and I'm sure this it sounds |
| 1:20:58 | like there could be a lot to be learned from there but once again they're very good at doing risk benefit and that losses at least there's supposedly do risk benefit yeah you know when you're doing chemotherapy you've got to consider the risk of killing the patient with the therapy adversity the cancer killing the patient without the therapy but they learn from their experience don't they and they I think we hope they do I'm as regards cost um you know five billion to do this or that you know to uh save the planet or |
| 1:21:35 | something um we can't even get the cost right of our of a railway line in in Britain yeah the the next high-speed Railway line I don't know if it's three times the price or the the London Olympics is the same thing was it double or three times anyway we've had so much of you um this is uh desperately need research well very quickly please because yeah um very quickly we desperately need research on on deployment and how to optimize it modeling of how photovations of the uh of the climate system |
| 1:22:37 | would affect the forecasts what's going to happen about that John because we we know we need um research and this we just came up in a previous meeting uh I've not I've never seen anything written in in public domain about this it's uh never mind asking for research yeah research to optimize the deployment right but there were those two those those two um letters that um Sean Fitzgerald pointed out to us about a month ago and he said you must read these and and that's what they were saying wasn't it it needs to |
| 1:23:12 | be research urgent research yeah but the kind of research they've talked about is Research into uh whether to do it okay so you're saying deployment scenarios yeah we need to look at you know if we're going to start deployment uh in in two years what do we need to get research okay they're crispy I think there is some because I'm just looking at my reference list and I've come across um next steps in geoengineering scenario research limited deployment scenarios and beyond for example um things like that so there are a few |
| 1:23:50 | at least a few around um it's not non-existent brilliant Point them out to me yeah okay I'll go through the list and let you have a have a uh I'll email them to you okay great thanks a lot Chris okay all right thank you John yeah we have to remember the fact that we don't know it doesn't mean it doesn't exist yeah I'm not in I'm not [Laughter] well Chris you're next about this hamburger report okay this uh was this report from the Hamburg Institute which uh I thought would probably make |
| 1:24:28 | Robert uh tulips blood boil because it basically said that um the only thing that was important with regard to dealing with the climate was uh social factors and it said for example um where was it yeah the physical three physical processes polar ice melts Arctic sea ice Decline and Regional Global Climate temperatures do not affect the plausibility of attaining the Paris agreement temperature cups these physical processes can moderately effect and then they talk about permafrost amok and the Amazon diabet can moderately |
| 1:25:06 | affect the global surface temperature and things like that they basically dismiss all of the Tipping points that we are familiar with and say basically social issues are far more important to deal with the climate than the any of these tipping points they basically say that those tipping points are probably not going to occur for many decades effectively so I just thought that was a rather astonishing um thing I did put that um that was a I emailed it to the noac um meeting list so you'll find it on there there's a link to it it's just |
| 1:25:39 | called tipping points the email subject right yeah I I saw that that email from you Chris yeah I would say more because you can go and look at it but I just yeah it was extraordinary yeah following that idea we may end up with a Margaret Thatcher's uh idea that there's no such thing as Society if there's no more humans left yeah yeah it's some of these groups they're not very good are they I mean there's lots of groups around not not very good but with were they are they sort of supposed to be eminent or |
| 1:26:12 | something um this is let's just go to this top um it's a University of Hamburg um at a cluster of Excellence climate change climatic change in society that's the sort of group that they have at the Hamburg University there so it's not a good group of you know nobody's there somewhere their presumably a load of academics so they're presumably give them what they've said I presume there's mainly social scientists I would guess I don't know but I guess they probably yes what can we do there's so much needs |
| 1:26:50 | to be done yeah uh okay thank you for that all right well this is we've got just time to uh to hear from Doug beginning to end the climate slightly this this meeting you're in with Michael Mann and and hi Brian and uh manager I guess it's very very early for you Brian and uh nice to see you manager uh better late than never Doug please all right just real quick um it occurred to me so so this curve up here is basically Jim Hansen's um interpretation of a different set of data different way of looking at it I'm |
| 1:27:29 | not sure exactly how but um it points toward a 10 degree equilibrium temperature uh totally in contradiction to Michael Mann who says it's going to level off and start declining and I'm not sure if it's CO2 or temperature or both but the point is uh of huge departure from mansion from um from Hanson and it occurred to me that okay so this is the new climate War right Michael Mann wrote a book about the new climate War and it occurs to me it doesn't really matter whether Hanson or man is right because |
| 1:28:08 | in in either case we're already right there thinking so does it really matter so I think we could argue and and the tact I'm taking I'm taking a very in herb might want to comment on this bill McKibben made a statement uh in his latest blog and um he's kind of opened the door like he's done before he says if we don't get serious about this we're going to end up doing this terrible terrible terrible geoengineering thing um so so I'm working on Bill McKibben from a different perspective I'm not I'm not |
| 1:28:46 | going head on with him I'm uh it's it's a long story how I'm anyway my point is if we could somehow get to man that he's wrong and that it's not a battle against of him versus Hansen because he's chastised Hanson already publicly um somehow we need to to somehow bring them to an equal point that they're they're both have to consider what we're talking about I don't know how we do that but her maybe has some thoughts well I I guess I I think I sent a note around uh I don't know a week or two ago |
| 1:29:27 | making I think the same point or what I think is the same point you're making which to some I hate to use the word distraction but I think you know arguing about what may happen in the future in a decade or two decades or five decades is not all that productive for us um it's it I mean I think what most of us if not all of us agree that uh you know even if we stop emissions now we've got we've got tipping points being activated and we've got a hundred reasons why we're not going to be able |
| 1:29:58 | to decarbonize quickly and even if we decarbonize quickly we're still going to lose the coral reefs etc etc that we're in an emergency situation already and that that's what we should focus on and not try to spend a lot of time I mean if individuals want to do that that's fine uh trying to you know adjudicate between the two of them or um you know put our you know if if in the final paper Hanson comes out and his colleagues come out with something very compelling I mean you know he doesn't |
| 1:30:31 | Hanson doesn't need our help you know he's he's the most respected or at least the most well-known climatologist in the world and has been for 25 years so I you know I I and as far as Michael Mann I mean the guy is so set in his ways I mean you may remember I was on a webinar with him I don't know nine months 12 months ago and I I brought up the issue or the paper you know that that Ron is very familiar with that I think we need to so I'm gonna have to uh Ryan there we go keep going please yeah I brought up I brought up |
| 1:31:05 | the paper that uh it was written by pistoni is that how it's pronounced Ron and a couple others about you know the loss of Summer sea ice will be equivalent to a couple decades worth of heat from emissions and you know he says oh well you know I don't he didn't know the paper which amazed me number one and then he just he didn't say geez let me read it and get back to you know he said oh that would have been taken into account by the ipcc and went on to the next question so I don't think there's |
| 1:31:37 | there's there I mean I I appreciate what you're doing Doug and you know you've got nothing to lose and I'll support you on it but I don't know that it's all that productive so what what actually triggered this thought was I was responding to an email and um something came up from from March 22nd and I thought I was responding to that and and I made a comment and I realized oh my God that's March 22nd that was a you know almost a month ago well it was an email from Mike McCracken responding |
| 1:32:13 | to a very similar question on a different thread and he when I read through it I'm thinking he's actually saying something different from Hanson and might even be suggesting that man is partly right so I got to think oh my God my world started falling apart yeah can I just respond to that because I it relates to what I was so I think I mean because I've I've also as you know been caught up in this whole debate and you know and uh you know it would take me a while to kind of I think achieve some kind of clarity here uh the um so |
| 1:32:53 | the and you and you guys may all know this I just you know just so the the um the Hanson report is on is a is a theory is a climate sensitivity you know it's it's it's if if carbon doubles or if carbon you know stays at the level uh wherever we you know right now if we stayed at this level and it didn't go down you know it just stayed there then you know eventually we would get seven to ten uh c c warming uh and uh and what and so the it's a little bit different from the the the current most recent |
| 1:33:27 | modeling that says it we we basically Plateau if we get to Net Zero because the the carbon and G you know they they it actually falls out gradually over time but it's offset by ocean warming from the ocean so the the temperature stays constant but the the ghg level declines and so it's a it's a it's and I think that's what Mike is getting at you know it's we've had to revise the the paper you know numerous times to just make this absolutely so we're not we're not you know misinterpreting anybody |
| 1:33:58 | here um and so but I do agree with both of you you know that it well in a sense I think what what herb was saying you know it it doesn't really matter in a sense you know it doesn't matter but it does does matter in the sense that this says that you know it's it's another argument for cooling I mean if we get to Net Zero we'll still be at the same damn temperature for at least another 50 years if not longer because of all the the heat stored up in the ocean that's coming out so uh you know in that sense |
| 1:34:24 | I think it is important because this whole idea you know we're just going to shave the peak and then we you know everything will will go back to kind of a stable climate it's just not true apparently based on the recent modeling which is a little different from what Hansel Hanson isn't really contradicting so he's talking about the theoretical climate sensitivity you know doubling carbon over the long term yeah it's my understanding but over time folks but uh Chris uh just very quickly I would say there is some |
| 1:34:52 | evidence from paleo climate data uh of what sort of levels of things like sea level rise sea level we would have at certain levels of temperature which would suggest things aren't going to stabilize that very quickly particularly sea level rise is going to go on for probably centuries um and that'll have very significant social economic effects as we know if Greenland melts you're going to have I don't know 15 meters of sea lies sea right or is it bit less maybe maybe seven or ten anyway right |
| 1:35:23 | I think Mike has talked about yeah some things maybe may have already irreversible but if we can call really quickly maybe we can you know we can we can slower reverse some of that stuff yeah I've got one one comment I know this is getting away none of my business because I don't attend the hpac meetings but I did see a comment from uh the gentleman Paul Anderson who said um your your thing is great but make it much shorter uh is anyone going to do anything about that what did I didn't see any response to |
| 1:35:53 | that uh the vision paper that that herb and you know yeah he said it's a great paper but make it one page if you want if you want to have an impact on politicians make it a one-pager and and then two pages at most yeah then we have the letters we have the one page letters right yeah and yeah my only other thought was that have you thought of crowdfunding I mean hpac hpac is is it has a sort of focus of making something happen um this this group is is a talking shop about science or anything really anything anybody wants to talk about |
| 1:36:25 | um but hpac has a has a focus of making something happen um so I but I don't that's in the meeting so I can just leave it at that folks and just leave it as a comment yeah yeah um well I I would just take your comment and use it as an opportunity to to welcome folks you all and your colleagues to um you know roll up your sleeves I know everybody's so busy and help with us because you know we have we're now up to what 120 people in our mailing list but in terms of active participation it's it's |
| 1:36:57 | about five percent of that uh that 120. um so you know what we can we have very large lofty aims um but we have very limited uh Human Resources so far and we need to find a way to bridge that disconnect and uh you know many of you in fact all of you have come to our meetings from time to time we appreciate that but beyond go I mean and I I'd like to think that you know there's a lot of value or else people wouldn't keep coming to our meetings and hear our speakers like we have David Keith coming next week and or this week |
| 1:37:29 | rather and so forth um but you know to go beyond simply hosting guests and having an interesting discussions we really need people to be willing to step up and um you know and work on whatever it is they feel is appropriate that's consistent with our mission have you thought of crowdfunding so you can have paid people well again I think it's all you know it's it's like um you know where do you get the energy who's going to take the time to organize the crowdfunding is yes we have to we have a you know very |
| 1:38:02 | limited amount of excess time after we arrange for our meetings and you know take care of the website and the mailing list and all that stuff to to do the more ambitious stuff um actually we we've been trying to get to establish a non-profit status that would be our first you know right now we we have you know I'm the treasurer so we have a little bit of money in the account but to do something you know more ambitious in terms of raising money we probably need a you know a more serious uh structure and the structure |
| 1:38:30 | has been a problem and anyway you get the you get the picture yeah actually I was going to say you asked for it Clive by raising that question yeah you asked for that I did okay yes fair enough I did I did anyway so this Thursday David Keith is speaking is that this Thursday yes this Thursday no it's uh yeah yeah no it's tomorrow I thought it was tomorrow 3 30. |
| 1:39:00 | uh 3 30 Central Time and 4 30. it's tomorrow yeah okay all right thank you for that okay everybody thank you very much just one point the next prag meeting will be again on a Tuesday UK time because it's easy because of Easter so but both move to Tuesdays okay we're both on Tuesdays well no hpac meeting is just because of David Keith we'll go back to Thursday uh yeah okay so the images David is to oh that's right Tuesday okay tomorrow that's right yeah so uh it'll be Wednesday for the Australians early morning for the next |
| 1:39:45 | Prague meeting uh I assume I assume I'm just hoping that Robert tulip is all right for that uh John do you have any idea anyone that wants to go goodbye uh that let them sort out I'll let them show themselves I'm not sure about Tuesday everyone see you in a couple of weeks oh it's tomorrow |