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| 00:13 | hello Stephen can you hear me all right very well yes yeah I wanted to say uh that uh we could very quickly because people will join um I was I've been reading through your papers Stephen they're very helpful um the one there's actually yeah so there's one the question I'll wait till um people are there um about the insulation I didn't understand why Antarctica but but I'll ask that later um though the calculations from I think you're saying Julia Slingo perhaps one or two others |
| 00:49 | um calculating the Albedo from the number of drop the call the cloud droplet number or something like that in the optical depth so I've been learning a lot about clouds in the last few weeks a lot of it's thanks to you uh reading reading those papers well I'm struggling to learn about them but uh yeah well I'm reading around as well the Julia Slinger thing was maybe a year or two ago so it's probably a bit harder that's where the 1. |
| 01:23 | 7 came from so one what what what's 1.7 enforcing is 1.7 per meter ready suppose ah hi um uh I was only I only saw one person hi uh Sev yes good to see you too yeah uh 1.7 radius of 40 okay because I took from it the number of uh there's a huge you know it's a power of 24 or something a number of droplets that's needed uh I think in the air at any one time it'll be 10 to the 20 something yeah it's I'm getting 10 to the 17 a second at full power from the spray vessels right yeah um okay yeah and I watched last week's uh uh |
| 02:15 | meeting which I couldn't couldn't be there because I was trying to get something finished and um watch that again this morning and it's that criminal really that Your solution is so well the Marine Cloud brightening solution is is so powerful um and so ignored and so ignored yeah the the key really is the energy you need to make a new condensation nucleus is its surface area uh times the surface tension of water Yeah you mentioned that I saw that and then the energy that's reflected by the enormously being that tropical cruise on |
| 02:57 | and a final talk on ecosystems um they're going to be short so we're gonna have quick turnover all of you so we'll start up with David um David do you want to introduce yourself what's that noise and cross interference or something here at the University can anyone hear another noise but who do I mute because you haven't got the radio one of you John three points super quick |
| 04:10 | but I think are important when um to the conference that's going on in Colorado right ah I suppose I wonder if I should log out and log in again yeah it was Stephen um Stephen I've muted you and this and the sound went away can you hear me Stephen uh you can't I could we can't we can't sorry we can't hear you now because I've muted you have to click to unmute sort of uh yeah I've asked you to unmute you so you should be able to unmute now and and if you say if you try and say something we'll know |
| 05:08 | that noise is back again that before you don't have a radio on or some noise going on we can hear another conference Stephen if you don't mind just disconnect and reconnect no no he just has to mute oh well but we'd like to hear him speak though yeah uh it means he can't speak today but it's not I think it's not your fault but somehow rather there's there's some across interference if Stephen would log on lock off I'm not gone again that's right Stephen do you mind just just uh |
| 05:53 | and sort of leave and then come back again hmm hi Brew okay hello Joseph hi everybody friends and good to see you all absolutely start but it wasn't uh it wasn't real it was an overlap what's that John that's I just told you we got off to quite a vocal stuff yes that's right yeah some some sort of overlap with someone else's conference yeah um well it's time to begin uh and hi Brian it was good to see you Brian uh and friends and uh okay and I watched the last weeks and uh thanks for uh |
| 06:52 | hosting it Robert I'm in awe basically uh so anyway there we go we these conversations and Chris said he won't be coming today uh so let's get on with it there isn't time to think really as a to think to think about sort of significance of things you just have to get on with it okay agenda uh so so yeah what do we want to talk about today so I was actually hoping that Chris would be available again today to continue the debate that uh I think it was mainly Brian and him and others Roberts was was hurry over the question |
| 07:39 | about um about the level of production of the in the in the ocean deserts or the low productive areas of the ocean as he calls them yeah and with that weather the question is whether abundance is good I mean he I think he said that it should be fine to bring it back to the status quo the level of the the production it was originally but but boosting it beyond that is an interesting interesting debate and what would be the consequences of that yeah that seems counter-intuitive doesn't it generally the more life the the the |
| 08:17 | better the the more Rich it is the more biodiverse the more it absorbs the other two the more it the acidifies all those things yeah yeah it's completely matter where it is does it really matter if we if the ocean did become highly productive is there a downside to that it's a question of baselines yes keep keep calling on bass lines which are way too recent um you know reading up some stuff that that Dave King was talking about and you know bringing bringing whale numbers back to uh um 1900 levels well actually of course |
| 08:55 | we've got that map of the whaling grounds which is uh 1888 days or something like that which shows vast areas of abandoned whaling grounds so it's huge Damage Done um you know over the preceding Century hmm um yeah so so we can talk about sorry yeah that's right yes we can have a discussion without Christmas maybe we can raise some questions to put to him next time so uh ocean abundance ah welcome back Stephen all right and and there's no noise so I think we did the right thing there so I had been listening to the conference in |
| 09:38 | Colorado during the day they should have switched off but I hadn't so it's I'm so it's my fault okay and whole day they mentioned for about two minutes foreign you were just saying the uh increase in uh in or decrease in radiated forcing caused by Bubble so you didn't finish your comment uh well I was talking about the ratio of the energy that you need to make the initial condensation nucleus which is its surface area times its surface tension you compare that with the energy that's reflect the solar energy that's |
| 10:25 | reflected by the drop that grows on that nucleus okay and uh the manufacturer of the initial drop is only eight percent efficient and the um the the uh reflectivity is also quite low but the the the the even when you put those in you're talking about a ratio of a billion to one so you've got this enormous leverage because of the of the reflectivity of the big cloud drops and that's what makes it good the energy that we're using to make this phrase tiny 300 kilowatts for a few hundred vessels it's an amazing energy gain I don't know |
| 11:07 | anything as big as that yeah we could say some more about that I wanted to I was saying before people came uh uh there's uh this picture here in one of Stephen's papers I was just saying to Stephen before we began that uh I've been learning a bit more about clouds and droplets and things and calculations this uh picture here of which is in one of your sort of short papers Stephen it shows the insulation uh at the top of the atmosphere uh at different times of the year in different parts of the world so this is |
| 11:46 | you know 90 North and you know and the Antarctic and uh interesting that there's more so I'd quite like to I don't know for you to explain a bit more about that not now Stephen not now if that's okay I'll just put it on the agenda okay uh I'd I'd love to do it straight away but let's put it on the agenda so um yeah so uh uh insulation diagram uh explain all right uh it's just saying just to explain yep that's that's my own request perhaps I'll put anyway that's right that's for Steven to |
| 12:31 | talk about that'll do anything else for anyone else do we know who versus going to cop 27 and whether they can say it whether they can push any of ideas on on SRM we can talk about that I thought Brian might be going but I don't know Ryan is muted yeah I'm not crying I'm actually um just helping to host uh the climate benefit concert that starts this weekend uh with uh sumitra Das at the healthy climate uh initiative right ACI I went to Copenhagen and Glasgow and I thought they were a complete waste of |
| 13:20 | time uh and it's quite expensive to go to Egypt for a couple of weeks so uh I've got some hopes about this one actually whereas it didn't have much of the ones beforehand okay let me put down hopes then uh and uh and then let's discuss then you can yeah that'd be good and we think we'll need a lift um any anything anyone else that's if we could also discuss the atmospheric River over Australia at the moment oh yeah okay Australia we also talk about extraordinary heat in Europe and the UK at the moment yeah |
| 14:15 | it's it's ridiculous yeah it's far too mild um yeah okay you can swing in both directions of course so maybe we'll get a terrible January in February everything seems to be changing more slowly and the the if you have uh a model of instability and tipping points uh you can get a prediction for them how close you are to them if things go more slowly if you if your model is a ball rolling in a shallow dish uh and another shallow dish next door which it could flip over into the rolling period uh of the ball uh gets |
| 15:14 | longer if the curvature of the the the the dishes changes so it's it's a predictor of something being near a Tipping Point yeah I could I think I see what you mean I could imagine uh something something like that Stephen um well um or any Publications or anything else maybe there's enough to talk about here um the conference in Colorado is being recorded and you can download it and listen to everything right it's um very much concentrating on uh stratospheric aerosol okay I'll dig out the the the the uh the |
| 16:03 | links to it you can look where you can record it it goes on for two and a half days we've had come to the halfway through the first day right uh okay uh but it might be good to you've been listening to it is over sorry Brian about the conference when it's over wondering if it's immediately downloadable day by day or something that you just wait until the whole conference is over okay can it be downloaded day by day Stephen uh yes and the links are to it you can listen you can tune into it and they |
| 16:46 | publish the um the agenda so you can choose which bits of it you want to go to and you can slide up and down the time scale so that's being organized very very well indeed yes yeah yeah I'm surprised not to see John Nissen perhaps he's uh listening to that conference because that would be up history yeah yeah um I didn't notice him there was a picture of the whole Gathering I didn't see him there but I may have been not paying enough attention okay anything else or should we start talking so what about the ordering here |
| 17:29 | you just start from the top yeah okay then yeah I mean it's I I find uh it hard to to uh yes I suppose um Brew just said what what about bass lines I I suppose my understanding what Chris uh uh Vivian says is uh yes if you that there's there's certain ecosystems certain sort of biodiversity and if you go and swamp it with something else then you you might lose some things maybe that's what he's saying where there is almost no no life and no biodiversity where it's virtually a clean slate like the the deep dark blue |
| 18:12 | ocean I can see no reason why growing kelp there growing phytoplankton there increasing Krill and fish stocks there couldn't be just about entirely beneficial yep it's for the because the starting point a lot of the purists they were you've got to you've got to introduce species which are an endemic to the area if there's nothing there then there's nothing to be endemic oh there's there's something there it just doesn't have the nutrients to to to to to to flourish that everything gets everywhere |
| 18:54 | no so it may not be there now but it will get everywhere as soon as you supplies the temperature or the nutrients or the option or whatever you want yes everything gets everywhere makes sense certainly right rather than predicting the what the Marine biodiversity could be if it's boosted the certainly the sensible thing is to turn the clock back and observe as Bruce is what it was like and if there's if there are if there is evidence that greater productivity in some of these like the mid-pacific areas they'd be |
| 19:25 | very interesting to to produce that and say well let's at least return it to that and and go further but uh but there would be a lot of information about what was like 100 years ago in those areas as well wouldn't it do you know much about that bro well yeah I I'm just thinking I'll let me dig out that um map and just pull it up for you all so that we can um see it and I've just posted it somewhere the Hawaiians have probably got very good oral history and that tahitians on how fish stocks were and what was caught |
| 19:59 | there you know three and four hundred years ago they're very any any society which doesn't have a a literature normally has a very strong oral history tradition yeah well if you let me share screen let me just yeah okay there's that share screen share that screen share right now can you see that Matt yep yep and let's full screen it look at the lights again um and blow it up right so in the legend down the bottom here the dark areas that this map was produced in 1884 the dark areas of the whaling grounds has exist then and the |
| 20:52 | lightly shady areas are the abandoned wailing grounds yeah can you see my the my mind yes look at this this is huge tracks of the Pacific which uh pretty much ocean deserts now and these justifiable whaling grounds with sailing ships there's four times as much area which has been abandoned versus what was near 1984. |
| 21:19 | exactly now for the whales have been there there had to be a massive phytoplankton and krill and other stuff um yeah um that's fascinating yeah it really is I mean and very probably given the dates of this you've got a sort of generation that you've got to think 50 years of a working generation at that time they've already been doing damage here probably even greater areas were full of whales so certainly because you look up up around the United Kingdom up here where this part of the North Atlantic where they've been fishing whales really hard |
| 22:00 | sort of 1500 um those were abandoned before the the knowledge of these abandoned whaling grounds yep so the whole uh the whole ocean was alive and this is the point that I make about um life constantly colonizes and stabilizes that's the nature of nature that's what it does and if you disrupt the nutrient cycles and it collapses and fall Falls away but if you nurse it back into life it will come as Stephen was saying it will build up what we're trying to do is build it back up quickly I know the Nantucket Whalers had a huge |
| 22:44 | industry and if you look at North America um the area around Nantucket is empty of of Wales and we we knew from that huge industry that it would have been really full of of Wales well at 1500 when they went they first got to the Newfoundland Cod Banks they were scooping Cod out of the water with baskets yeah and there were Tales of ships sailing into Shoals of fish that were so large that slowed them up yeah I actually uh grew up on Cape Cod and never and we're diving 100 times a year and never saw a cod fish to this |
| 23:20 | day yeah I mean the oil from Wales with supplying all the the oil for light yeah so so if you think about the production of the fossil fuel industry today that was actually being done the equipment it's been done by the oils yeah yeah well literally the the the whale blubber lit the lights that allowed the guys to sit in the drawing rooms and design the steam engines yeah and you'll also notice that the Southern Ocean that the southern part parts of it haven't got any any entries on it virtually and that's because with ice |
| 24:05 | flows and that it was hard for sailing vessels to navigate there yeah you couldn't get that as soon as steamships came round the waiters could go down there and and really make a a huge mess of it so micro says what's the sort of um meaning of well sort of significance of this I mean I think we're saying that uh well this this takes me back to my my biomass argument and that biomass that study of of the total amount of bias that document says we've reduced the total amount of life on the planet by at |
| 24:43 | least 50 percent and you you can look at those maps of uh the the how much of the planet was forested and how much we've taken out how much damage agriculture has done over the past four thousand years um you know you think of the whole North Africa and such like so with with all that additional life on the planet life was self-regulating because you had so much more going up there for cloud formation so much more movement and it's it's evidence that it's capable of doing it and bear in mind 550 gigatons of new life on the planet |
| 25:22 | or restored life on the planet that's enough to take your CO2 levels right back down to around 300 parts per million um making allowance for what we we put into the atmosphere now and an allowance for a significant off-gassing from the oceans hmm so like it's it people think of the the planetary mechanisms for temperature regulation and actually the um the the sweating of the planet the the transpiration of trees and what comes off it this is a primary mechanism um you know probably before the greenhouse gases greenhouse gases |
| 26:07 | obviously have control as well but there's a lot more to it than meets the eye has suspension Gaia is the main regulating uh thing for for for for Earth and we've basically knocked off four fifths of Gaia already so we've only got one fifth operating in the ocean at any rate there's probably only half on land yeah I mean it's it would be really interesting if we could find sedimentary studies Brian you may know about this the evidence of life that's been lost over the past five hundred and a thousand years and I |
| 26:46 | suspect that it's it's there if you go and look for it to the settlements in different parts of the ocean France yeah I've wanted to say uh if if there is uh a more more feet when the whales have been there there must have been there also much feature Plankton exactly and also this life which is uh daily going up and down up to a thousand meters like the lantern fish and so on yeah went up and down and so you have a better mix in the mixture between the fertilizing lower layers to the a less fertilized upper layers and not |
| 27:40 | only that for us but you had huge shelves of large fish that were moving up and down through the air so there's a massive amount of circulation in the ocean going on which we've lost and if the if the phytoplankton was three times as dense in the surface waters the Albedo would have been considerably lighter then the turquoise Planet not the blue planet yes and additional uh you're speaking of the uh of the sediments you don't need to look for future plans in the sediments because it had been eaten by the food chain |
| 28:24 | so you must look for other kind of if if a fish falls down it it will not oxidize on its way down yeah yeah particles become oxidized that surely had been not a case in in these old times yeah in a whale a whale fall is an amazing Bounty for a benthic community and you get agfish and sharks and predators of all kinds on the seafloor and those were decimated by almost a thousand to one over that period and it's interesting those light gray zones actually corresponded to zones of mesoscale upwelling lots of |
| 29:14 | little Eddies very Clinic loads and things of that sort that would naturally bring nutrients up to the surface just through cyclonic action akin to the convectin system of a Cyclone or a hurricane or something yeah yeah that that diagram is very persuasive bro I mean I think a lot of people really have trouble visualizing what we're talking about and then and we yeah but this is really historic restoration I mean who wouldn't be a board who wouldn't I can read the reports of the early explorers so |
| 29:50 | Captain Cook's log is all online and you can find sections in that one there's a description of somebody coming right aheadland and there's there's shelves of Manatee and such like she's passing by the ship for hour after hour after hour the the pollinations of course Traverse the ocean and their contikis and all those things they they want plenty of catch on the way because they survived yeah so then it must have been there you don't see it now it was much easier to catch them of course they didn't have |
| 30:18 | the tools to catch things with we do now yeah um therefore there had to be so much more life occasion [Music] their hooks were made out of shells laboriously over a few days to wait one fishhook let's bring that back as a new regulation but absolutely so much of this happens on land as well um so we're looking really to counter um when the IMO and you know I was watched it all two weeks ago uh with Christy no no you can't do that that's dumping or you can't you know you're not allowed to put iron because that's |
| 31:04 | dumping um we're trying to find a way to say look goodness sake um or or people say that's nutrient robbing you know you put iron and then it'll use up all all they phosphate or something and then and then there'll be nothing left I think we're looking to say that um well uh if you allow the life to thrive as long as you don't immediately Hoover everything up you know and sell it somewhere in a fish shop um then it it will continue the mixing it'll bring back that mixing from lower layers |
| 31:38 | it back into life it's the the iron that comes from Sahara dust and such like which lands on the Atlantic six down through the water column it isn't around long enough for the Tropic Cycles to to Res establish themselves but once they're there and it's working then they capture it and it stays there because it's churning through the whole cycle of life and it stays in position Yeah the more life you have there the more that Sahara dust is captured yep exactly exactly and recycled uh the Elegance of your system with the |
| 32:22 | buoyant flakes which is why I like it so much because you're you're allowing that's nursing it back into life putting the minimum amount of iron into the ocean but keeping it available and that iron is all from waste waste sources exactly I can send a paper about a way to increase uh Leon um there were lots of experiments done on this but they tipped an enormous amounts in a quite big big uh lumps and uh only one of the experiments actually produced any useful measurements of of carbon change and I think what they were really |
| 33:04 | measuring was how good people were keeping track of which bit of sea they treated and this is quite difficult they were only there for a very short time and you could easily get muddled up about the bit that you could had just squirted the iron into what I want to do is to have the yarn injection taking place over much lower quantities over a much longer time so it's time for uh um things to migrate and and for an ecology to develop rather than just just the lowest level and the way the way I want to do it is to reverse things called cathodic |
| 33:45 | projection which is used for uh stopping corrosion and oil platforms and uh if you do this the other around you can increase the rate of corrosion of iron and I've got a design for a ship uh which exposes a very large area of iron which you want to have corroding and it's corrosion is a rate that you can set by the current that you are putting into the anodes that's an interesting thought correct and the Chip's driven by the wind and they cruise around and the iron is in the form of angle line which is very easy to |
| 34:21 | replace and we want you know each ship can take several hundred tons of iron and come back three months later and load up again David could you do the same thing on an abandoned uh oil gas will in the sea yes and you know therefore watch the the down current effect of that iron on the ecology yes Rex do attract fish um that's that's where it's well known to to uh divers but this would actually not only allow the attachment to the uh to the to the structure of these encrusting organisms but also would |
| 35:02 | release the iron for the pelagic fish and the pelagic organisms yeah what we want is to have the mood ocean iron concentration be closer to concentration of on in rivers there's quite a bit look coming into the sea Rivers I don't think it matters where the iron comes from but we just want a more a small amount of it in a big area rather than a normal script even what you're saying is is exactly the rationale for iron salt aerosol that having a very low concentration of iron spread over a wide area as distinct from |
| 35:40 | the the iron sulfate methods I'm sure that the Sahara stuff will be rather on the big side and will sink quickly uh it may be it's only the very smallest um Sahara stuff that actually because it does a good job yeah pretty small amount getting captured similar sort of low concentration you get from the the buoying flakes and the surface yeah as they float around and uh if uh biomass builds up again and it all fertilizes itself and lots of phytoplankton comes back that makes DMS for more clouds yep better Albedo but |
| 36:23 | the the big the big problem is is as soon as you've got lots of biomass swimming around in the sea it becomes a huge magnet for fishing vessels so this is a little bit everywhere do a little bit everywhere do a little bit everywhere okay exactly yeah that is the whole point of some of the early experiments we're proposing to do with small island States who've got huge Marine territories and big chunks of their economies based on Fisheries so once you you fertilize an area around Tonga or one of these places |
| 37:01 | um the licensing they get for their Fisheries goes up you share the the income from that um the tuna come rushing in for a thing to start with and loads of food they get fat um uh and you you support the whole thing but hopefully as that happens there is a net gain of biomass in the ocean and it's become self-funding there's a problem which is that has uh some kind of food gets rare it also gets more valuable and so there's a very strong tendency to exterminate the very last few um yeah well hopefully we overcome that |
| 37:44 | and push it back in the other direction oysters used to be regarded as the the food of the poor yeah actually the thinking of such things on food and switching out of the oceans a little bit today um you know bolsonaro hopefully is out and we have strong hopefully strong amazon protection coming coming through but then you start looking at the importance of how you pay those ranchers cattle ranchers for uh actually carrying out the the forestry protection and regrowth that needs to be done um or at least protecting their existing |
| 38:24 | soil because at the moment they're mining the soil hey Mr mad biochar to it let them yeah do do uh regenerative farming all that sort of stuff that's from your your agenda it's okay I I I did think that actually but it's okay um well I've actually sneaked something else in here as well I don't know what people think about that about ocean acidification because this is often mentioned and um it's really a bit frustrating for friends and I because we worked so hard on a paper which we never |
| 39:03 | really got time to finish and um I just wanted to mention that France solves the problem when it takes the carbon out of the ocean yeah one away yeah this and turns the asset into um oxygen yeah yeah yes um friends I just want to mention it because I think yeah I hadn't realized yeah that you've identified about three ways that I mean we all know that the phytoplankton when they make uh organic carbon they release oxygen that raises the pH at the ocean's surface and uh when they make shells we all know |
| 39:46 | that that no they make a calcium carbonate that releases acidity so they have a way to regulate their pH you know they could make more shell or make less gel um but you identified about two other ways that they can raise the ph and in two other ways they can lower the pH is that right the main the main thing is the uh this is a transformation of uh arrogen or carbonate to organic carbon this produces uh pH uh increase and when you can see and and you measure it day by day you see in the night the pH as the ocean |
| 40:37 | surface is falling and during that the pH is during the day it goes up during the day it goes up again and uh I think the the acidification uh depends also on the stratification yeah when when when stratification restricts the um notification of the plankton and the meaning and reduces production of organic carbon so you get automatically uh and as if acidification yeah people are always also oceanographers believe the concentration of atmospheric CO2 would influence the |
| 41:45 | ocean pH that's wrong otherwise in in in the uh in the Christianity of times you got huge amounts of cocoa leaves which build up for instance a chalk around about over and and so and there is absolutely no sign of of acidification from the sediments if the ocean would be they had up to 2000 PPM CO2 in these times accordingly the ocean helped to be extremely acidic that wasn't a the only case yeah otherwise no cochleists would have grown in these salads |
| 42:50 | back then the life would have been adapted to those different conditions yes at least we have in the criticize times huge amounts of of sediments of carbonate the chalk yeah the the whole apps contain very thick layers of of uh dolomite Dolomite and other kinds of carbonate Cretaceous your Jurassic also yeah yeah I mean and you you've kind of said that it looks as though the ocean has been around about more or less pH since life began |
| 43:52 | for most of the time yeah with huge changes in in the series in the extremely uh huge amounts of CO2 in the arcane you have a carbonate sediments right yeah so it's so there was some alkalinity well there must have been enough alkalinity to make carbonate sediments is that what you're saying for enough life to absorb the acid and turn it into oxygen yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah even before even before the uh the oxygen the oxygen time you'll have uh carbonate uh sediments right for the great oxygen event yeah yeah the the the |
| 44:40 | former a billion years old sediments yeah and and so when we came out with this when when France first started saying this about two or three years ago I think you were there at the time Robert uh Fran said it's a fairy tale uh that that ocean pH is related to atmospheric CO2 uh it was we we just it was so controversial but it's still controversial but I think what we're really saying is uh the ocean consider please consider that the ocean pH is regular is you know as um James Lovelock said to a large extent regulated by its life |
| 45:23 | Well it can't be regulated by its life if there isn't any life there because you've got rid of all the nutrients okay so then it's just a body of water and it is going to go up a court you know according to simple physics physical you know physics and chemist physical chemistry but if you've got lots of life in there that has numerous ways to raise the ph you were saying before France when you just say that when they make DMS that's acidic isn't it and so they can reduce they can |
| 45:50 | um right so they can raise their pH by by producing debt uh whatever what it does that becomes DMS but and there are other mechanisms you came up with as well I just sort of keep thinking we should we should write those down and just put them up at least so some other people can see those mechanisms um if the if the biology of the ocean can regulate its own pH it looks as I may have been doing that for billions of years then uh it's no surprise that the ocean that's how come the Earth has survived that life has survived this law |
| 46:22 | because it regulates its environment just as James Lovelock said it was a very different life that started off 3.8 billion years ago and went through for two billion years totally different conditions a different planet different circulation you know sometimes has been completely covered in water sometimes it's covered in ice yeah sometimes it's very you know and sea levels Rising dramatically and the amount of land available and the position of the continent is completely different the circulation system is |
| 46:52 | completely different but yeah within a time scale that generally speaking life can adapt to yeah unless you get hit by an asteroid or a massive volcanic event s like keep up with the change these massive events where it knocks it sideways on it and it then tends to stagger to recover and rebuild and changed itself yeah in every case it's always moving to stabilize and colonize and adapt its environment to be more suitable to it Natural Things is that they they are constantly evolving becoming more complex and more sophisticated you know |
| 47:35 | so early life forms are considerably less sophisticated than the Modern Life forms when I talk early and I'm talking about the 500 million years ago yeah uh and the uh there's um some lectures from a guy called Nick Lane I've seen on YouTube he's talking about how did Life Begin and again Franz talked about this um because the issue is there wasn't any energy if there's if you've got no oxygen I don't want to go on about this too long because I've snuck this in and it wasn't sort of agreed but I find this |
| 48:08 | very fascinating so please shout me down if you think it's not um uh that uh there was there's no there was no oxygen and no and the the main before oxygen the main oxidant in the ocean was sulfate but still the ocean is still full of sulfate there's lots of it there yeah but but this sulfate uh it came from an oxidation reaction yeah yeah yes a mechanism um between uh categor and the the keynote casinos yes so we could we could and this could also produce a suffet because in in these times there was no oxygen there which didn't produce |
| 49:02 | a sulfate from H2S but the the kilones can yeah so this is the general principle to me is it's fascinating that that it began I said to France how could Life Begin he said that everything is a redox reaction it's you know uh you know um you need an oxidant and a reductant um and then they they react and then it makes energy and uh so I said well how could it how could Life begin when there was simply no oxidant there wasn't even any sulfate and he said well there was a very strong reductant um it's uh |
| 49:44 | um hydrogen in the serpentine Rock but yeah but where was the oxidant he said well you don't really need a strong oxidant carbon diox you know carbon dioxide well bicarbonate or hydrogen carbonate is it supposed to be called in the ocean is is is enough this is sort of neutral enough to actually be able to use as an oxidant with the hydrogen in the rocks and and this microbes that still live on that and that was the first Ikea life in these times and you had also a photolysis as the ocean surface at the very beginning |
| 50:20 | yes let's see in in the sense about for a billion years right now yeah they they make uh layers of uh yeah abandon our information yes they came from this early photo lizards yeah yes because the ocean was full of iron too and silica yeah and as the ocean surface a microbes uh the the Freedom Plankton of this time where microbes which changed Iron II with sunlight to Iron III yeah yes and that's made our giant uh iron deposits in Northwest Australia yeah uh in South Africa or Namibia or North America the the biggest iron uh |
| 51:27 | or concentrations are from these times yeah yeah right and and just as Brew was saying things get more sophisticated then something came along that said um oh I don't need iron don't need so much iron to do that I'm going to do that with some other you know chlorophyll or something and I'm not just going to oxidize make you know have a slight change of oxidation state with iron I'm going to actually make oxygen rubisco rubisco and uh and then everything had to change because entire yeah and and and these chemicals they |
| 52:07 | used they they where they uh these cut records uh the the microbes there's a beer firms used for a disordering uh silica for instance dissolving silica yeah silica and silicates and so on yeah they they are excellent for iron and silicon right this is the whole thing that it began with Perfect Chemistry for dissolving rocks and the continents grew very fast as they needed the the nutrients elements and and these things are used until today yeah the best Irish relatives of for instance is is it's extremely uh the most uh strong |
| 53:11 | iron chelator known for iron three right yeah so it's been a fascinating uh but but it's just between me and friends so far no that's pretty interesting so iron uh accelerating iron three makes it soluble and retainable within cells when you say most powerful in what way is it just doing it at a higher rate per kilo or what um you know how is that working exactly so go on sorry friends yeah the uh they use it for different purposes uh dissolving uh Iraq for instance to get the uh get the nutrients out from there is that |
| 54:04 | the question Brian uh sort of yeah I mean is this a bacterium is it a microbe uh what's the organism that they're they're all doing loads of them are doing it yeah chemical they use to dissolve the silica yes yes enterobactin is one as well aren't they friends I I I can't tell you the I only know these effects of you know I I worked longer in in the groundwater contamination situation and where you have always in a organic contaminant produces reduced Amelia and then you have the groundwater |
| 55:07 | enormous ground water which contains oxygen and in these uh relics ready and so on uh there are the microbes they have lots of bioferms there because they have nutrients and oxygen there and they live from these uh from the gradient from the gradient like we we also we need also reduced things to eat and we oxidize them by by oxygen and the same do do uh microbes at these in this gradient Zone where they can can take breathing from oxygen or surface or other oxidants and take Organics from the contaminant or |
| 56:15 | from also from natural yeah and the principle applies everywhere and so the the the uh center of the and there you find out in the in the oxygen Zone then you find the the Iron III precipitates you find the silica processity precipit States and these precipitates come from from the kinones from the the they produce categories for dissolving the rock and uh the dissolved selects they come into the oxygen Zone then a silica and so on false precipitates and there you find the the you find the evidence of it even even if |
| 57:23 | they build up even a rock uh building these petrified rocks petrified trees you'll find these uh for instance in the uh everywhere in in Germany we we call them um these geologists name is uh this cement was Jesus yes in Australia you find them uh likely in the in the warm areas um cement another thing these are sediments which are cemented by Basilica or by iron hmm they they uh I know I don't know yeah I can't |
| 58:27 | remember you've told me before friends and you get these wonderful diagrams and people sell them as art because it's all these sort of uh not diagram but pictures of all these sort of swirling sort of formation and it's all rock it's all kind of stone like that anyway I didn't want to take it too yeah everyone who goes on the coast of Dover finds these this is the same um you have a anaerobic sediment and the toxic sea water above hmm and France is that what makes the Flint nodules yeah yes that's it |
| 59:19 | Flint nodules okay yeah this is a precipitation of yeah of course when when when these Wendy is uh chalets oxidized to the Keynotes kinones cannot relate and that's what early humans use to make their tools with yeah yeah it's celistic ooze that uh then polymerized over presumably thousands or millions of years to become Flintstone no no it goes rather fast is it a few hundred years rather fast yeah yeah John you've got your hand up John listen yeah yeah um and and chalk you get um nodules of iron which are kind of amazingly kind of |
| 1:00:10 | circular and you get flints yeah wow yeah so those are two different kind of accretions that must have occurred over millions of years you know the sediment contains these cocoa leaves and they contain these silica okay how do you call them diatoms yeah items yeah diatoms are made from silica in the organic phase in the in the reduced phase the chalets are produced by the by the uh po firms and you dissolve silica from the sediment and uh |
| 1:01:13 | neither the surface of the ocean they are precipitating because the the chalets oxidize that's a simple processing for instance in humic assets there are also these forms of selecting you needed and Benzene ring with two adjacent uh oh groups but these are like cut records yeah we have to publish our paper friends and they can read it if they want to once we get ready one day yeah okay um right I've okay um so this is another one of uh did you want to say any more about uh the I mean you said it explained it very well last |
| 1:02:09 | week I thought Stephen uh the it's not much energy in for it for well for a huge energy reflected back out to space from from Marine Cloud brightening yes see the energy that you need to make a a condensation nucleus is just its surface tension of the water and the surface area of the of the condensation nucleus uh and you compare that with the energy that's reflected from the cloud drop that grows on that nucleus and you get numbers that are a billion and more um and that's why uh we need uh zero |
| 1:02:49 | material to make it because the materials coming from the uh the sea around us and the energy is coming from the wind so while you have this enormous energy gain now you were talking about um numbers of nuclei uh if you're in a hurry if you can double the number you get a reflectivity increase of a bit over five percent okay that works over quite a wide range if you want to be a little bit more sophisticated you can take the the ratio of two uh um number nuclear ratios of cloud drops and if you take that ratio and you take the natural log of |
| 1:03:34 | that and then you divide by 12 that gives you the reflectivity change so 1 12 of the natural log of the ratio of nuclei and uh if you're in in a rush you can say that doubling it gives you a bit over five percent increase in reflectivity so doubling the number of nuclei in a cloud uh gives you 10 times more than uh the problem the problem is half a percent which is the the uh the excess that we're retaining and doubling the number of condensation nuclei uh increases You by 10 times more than that five percent |
| 1:04:18 | so you don't need clouds Everywhere by any means at all yeah and uh amazing yeah and I I read the Ahern paper is it Ahern that that but it seemed very high quality uh saying that that you don't even need clouds you can just make droplets and as sort of a haze and it has about the same effect as brightening clouds the complication there is that if you haven't got any clouds you've got a much longer life of the aerosol the aerosols are washed out by rain now there's no rain and if it just hangs |
| 1:04:55 | around until you get somewhere where there's the right relative humidity increase yeah that's that's why um it's just as good to do it when there's clear skies yeah it's um it's probably better to do it under clear skies because you get a lower dose over a bigger area you don't want a high concentration in a small area because it's that long term remember I said it's the log of what the 12th of the log of the number change so it's a log thing you're better to have |
| 1:05:28 | double the area in half the dose so you can do it anywhere where there's uh clean air and you get clean air after it's rained so the best place is to look for where it's just rained and then go there and then just wait um and put it up there and then and let it lasts a long time yeah I'm thinking that might be best for our aerosols that we're talking about that reduce take methane out of the air yeah yeah because uh it'll get more bang the back you know they'll last longer they'll keep depleting methane instead |
| 1:06:04 | of getting rained out a few days later there is one other effect which is that if you have a number of vessels that are cruising parallel to one another uh they will make lines of cooler uh and cooler water underneath it and this would be just exactly what you want to get a rotation from cold water sinking and warm air warm water replacing it so you can actually increase the the mixing that you can reduce stratification and that's probably a good thing too I haven't done any sums on it but uh it's |
| 1:06:40 | fun to be in the right direction you get the same effect if you have mycetamizers in in a row with gaps between them the the wind then down downwind you'd have some areas with Cloud forming and and clear areas between yeah and that that's a good thing to do um and then this might uh is there any other points on that uh I I found your I'll just say once again your paper's very useful Stephen and I want to um reproduce the the those calculations from Julius lingo right and just take that what you've |
| 1:07:23 | just said there with the 12th log that's in that's part of that I believe isn't it the 12th Vlog well I consumed you I I'll send you a paper by Schwartz and Slingo it's not the same Slinger it's her husband which explains the two me afraid to me did lots and lots of flying of airplanes and diving into clouds and scooping out drops and measuring reflectivities and drop sizes and all that uh he he wrote for other other challenges rather than for Joe public and it's heavy heavy going but |
| 1:08:01 | shorts and Slingo did a very good analysis of all his papers and and for uh produced stuff that other you know Humber Mortals couldn't understand and uh Schwartz and Slingo are probably the best way to learn this okay uh it is Andrew Slingo uh he died rather young and Julius lingo was his wife and she was then the chief scientist at the Hadley Center uh she cried a lot on the engine ocean monsoons and there's a good temperature great until the Indonesian but she's very hostile to geoengineering I I went to |
| 1:08:45 | um had a long debate after she said that it was useless and would be not necessary it'd be lots of negative feedbacks that would save the temperature problem and she had a go at Peter Wadhams and uh I I wrote to her with copies to the common slick committee and uh in the end she said we must have a discussion about this and Peter Waterman's and I and Allen Guardian went down to Exeter to the Hadley Center when we wanted to have a discussion about Marine Club writing and she just wanted to give us a talk about how wonderful the happy |
| 1:09:25 | Center was and we were just too polite to interrupt a lady this is a problem about the way men behaved in those days you couldn't say stop that listen to me we just had to listen and then suddenly at the end she said well we haven't got any time left and so we spent hundreds of pounds flying and putting up the hotels and things at all she's shown she she has been shown to be absolutely wrong guys yeah yeah and she's now living really quite close to Allen Guardian and I think she's mellowed a bit and she |
| 1:10:05 | uh she's that's my telephone which is talking to me but I didn't realize this um it's picking up things that I was saying and if it's got something interesting it or should we uh but she may be now she's she may be not taking messages from the government [Music] um too late Clive has just vanished Stephen you going to explain about insulation uh right well the picture that I sent him was something I got from Noah uh and it's just showing a map of uh latitude uh um vertically and months of the year |
| 1:10:54 | horizontally if Cloud comes back you can show it if not I could probably find one yes and it shows that it's there's more solar energy going into the South Pole for a short time in uh than there is going into the equator it's 550 watts per square meter into the South Pole and it's about uh 440 going into the the equator and uh can you bring it up type yeah so you've got this 550 down here to um for um for the Christmas period and then there's absolutely nothing at all in in the winter and if canoes scroll down to |
| 1:11:44 | the other other side you get North Pole can you yeah the same effect here it isn't quite as extreme because I think of the tilt of the other answers so the main Runway about the equator is about for 425 or so yeah why isn't it symmetric in the northern and southern hemisphere this is confusing at 30 degrees south you've got 500 but at 30 degrees north you don't and that's right well you've got uh I need to look at the that's 400 yeah you wouldn't expect the Symmetry uh Brian because of the malakovich Cycles |
| 1:12:25 | um uh okay you're talking about the uh five percent exercise I've got to leave you I have some extreme wind here and I gotta go and secure some things outside really quickly okay bye-bye bro see you in a couple of weeks okay so we may be all right so we're closest to the Sun in January and which month of the year is the um is the horizontal axis yeah or would January appear so this is January in the uh this is January uh in the Arctic oh that's right so that's generally in the Arctic so that must be |
| 1:13:00 | mid-summer in the Arctic okay now it makes sense okay I'm with you now yeah thank you these numbers are just for these colors and so the numbers are not the same going along this way well the colors are different also and that is explained by our greater distance to the Sun in the northern hemisphere summer yeah the x-axis is wrong the x-axis should be date um but it's got it could be yes I think it's the phase of the Year effectively yeah yeah so yeah 1990 is um the journal Solstice and 270 is the |
| 1:13:40 | December Solstice well now I understand why we get uh bad sunburns here in Australia in the summer time it's we're just closer to the Sun no no we're 10 degrees closer to the Equator than the United States well there's some of that but for a given latitude I mean I've lived at 28 degrees before and still there's more UV and I think it's explained by uh the distance to the Sun during the summer so that's what it is it's it's the elliptical orbit yes okay apparent helium in January |
| 1:14:14 | right now right a perigilion did you say yeah next color of orange is 450. so it looks like there's 10 percent less sunlight hitting the Northern Hemisphere at 30 degrees North uh here yeah look at that because that's that same color 450 right uh where are we so we're in the we're talking about the winter here are you yeah the 450 Contour yes you're getting 450 and at 30 degrees north you're getting 530 degrees south so there's a 10 difference in insulation hmm fascinating yeah yeah we get four |
| 1:15:00 | percent difference in UV as well I imagine okay yeah yeah that's a fascinating chart thank you for that yeah uh Brian you did your um doctorate on language Cycles so you you must understand all of this stuff pretty well yeah ironically I mean I hadn't seen it that chart I hadn't seen it was my undergraduate thesis at Princeton in physics and uh built an early two hemisphere model for uh malankovic forcing and identified that approximately 70 of the historic Ice Age record could be explained by melanchovic |
| 1:15:37 | Cycles the remaining that's a lot of the variants of course we just canceled the next ice age and now we've the anthropogenic effects have greatly swamped anything that malankovic could have dreamed of yeah okay uh and uh France also it seems that uh the because the melanka the melanchovic Cycles um they uh used to be that the change in temperature of the of the earth going back several I don't know is it 10 million years for a long time they the the temperature varied with the language cycle but but I think starting about three million |
| 1:16:23 | years ago it it's um was not it wasn't every time so it seemed to get stuck in a huge you know glacial period in fact they were getting worse until until we came along that they were like about four manage Cycles it would get stuck and it would take and so this is what Fran's work found a paper that said and then what gets it unstuck when it's deeply freezing cold is it get the air so dry that the the only a few forest fires or a bit of dust I think it's dust actually the dust blows onto the ice sheets and then |
| 1:16:59 | suddenly it warms up and it and it goes in the other direction so you get this history paper uh from Dallas yes Ellis has a very notorious reputation he's uh but uh that paper I think is the only thing of his because it's co-authored that's that's reliable and what he what he proves is that the turnaround in the language Cycles is primarily a function of Albedo rather than carbon and so putting Albedo into its correct place as a climate forcing driver as the principal lever is a really significant outcome of that paper |
| 1:17:42 | because the thing is if you've got a you know Rising carbon then you expected to just continually get get warmer but what happened in the Sawtooth of the glacial Cycles was that when it got very warm suddenly for some unexplained reason it turned around so the turnaround of the Sawtooth every 100 the hundred thousand year pattern of the ice agents is not explained by the conventional Reliance on carbon dioxide but it's reliant on Dust on Alberta as the as the primary driver and that's why we need to shift our climate Focus from |
| 1:18:30 | carbon to Albedo that's very significant and as it does in the atmosphere or dust on the ice that's making black ice I think dust on the eyes at last what happened was that when the when the CO2 level got down to around 180 the um it was too little amount of carbon in the air for trees to live so the pre-line collapsed and uh so that the and that then generated massive dust which covered the ice with uh with black and that then generated the turnaround every hundred thousand years is Alice's Theory it to me it's quite plausible |
| 1:19:14 | yeah yeah and firmware to explain the asymmetry that the Melt cycle is very fast and then the refreezing occurs much more slowly which is another mystery in uh in the conventional approach well given there are two separate and disparate phenomena one being dust Albedo and the second being a gradual Cooling and refreezing uh it makes perfect sense that they have different time scales but it's also ominous from the present situation because it means that the time scale for warming and melting in the earth system is much |
| 1:19:49 | shorter than the time scale for refreezing under natural condition so it means a lot more work to do to go back the other way yeah and the only lead that we have is Albedo carbon is not a lever I I think it's a very good point you make uh Robert I hadn't really thought of using that and saying uh because people say oh no you can't do this because it's so unnatural you know you're playing with the system say look this is what happens this this is uh this is what what caught what caused the |
| 1:20:20 | ends of very abrupt ends to the ice ages and so uh don't don't think of this as some alien thing that we're trying to do this this is a very important uh phenomenon or important component of warm you know that maintains the temperature or changes the temperature and if you ignore we ignore it at our Peril because look this is what's ended the ice ages thank you folks um this is all just for my uh presentation to agu this year we need to understand the uh the operation of the earth system in order |
| 1:21:02 | to deal with the climate crisis that's I think Alice's paper is is mainly due to his co-author Ellis is actually quite a cook he's uh he's notorious as a climate denier and so uh you know there's lots of climate deniers who sort of Link into this solar radiation and malankovic stuff in order to uh to challenge um climate science so be careful like but his his paper that Franz mentioned is an excellent paper yeah so so what what's the ls paper called is Alison Palmer Alison Palmer yeah |
| 1:21:40 | I'll post a link great yeah okay we've got 10 minutes folks um and so um well how about talking about I don't know what we're going to talk about next River yeah I think that makes sense yeah well yeah this was just picking up on um a discussion uh might have meta Spencer's Town Hall talks with Paul Beckwith and Peter Wadhams recently I've picked up on and uh Paul was explaining the atmospheric River that's uh they diligent the massive Villages so suddenly eastern Australia is suffering and it's it's like uh 16 |
| 1:22:27 | times the volume of Sydney Harbor you know it's it's it's a it's a it's a board of vapor above the clouds which is traveling across from dumping and of course it's the air Target a jet stream and how it's Disturbed it's and it's it's of course it's raining a lot more on the ice and that both the Arctic and the Antarctic that's accelerating melting which is disastrous as well but it's just it's just the scale of was there but just it's just it's amazing I |
| 1:22:54 | mean kilometers wide it's this River in the sky which is coming up and it's very disturbed so and this seems to be happening in the in the Arctic and the Antarctic in this sort of at the same time and the shoulder shoulder season so yeah it's very disturbing you know because they talked a lot about sea level rust swelled just an interesting discussion and you'd all be across this as well but uh so I think we need to study the Antarctic jet stream a little bit more than just the uh the Arctic jet stream |
| 1:23:25 | the tour the two of this Behavior at the moment but what I wonder is what scope there is for marine Cloud brightening or you know uh putting particles in the air nucleated particles for reducing these massive floods and making it rain where people got droughts can you answer that Stephen um the the there's a tug of war in in two to two directions uh if you put higher temperatures the sea evaporates more and that water's got to go up and then it's got to come down somewhere and that's one thing the second thing is |
| 1:24:12 | that to make brain you need to get big drops falling down and gobbling up smaller ones to make an even bigger drop so if we make more but smaller drops you've got uh uh uh a sort of balance and fight going on between the two things and it may be that you get a stronger Monsoon if the the sea is is cold and the land is hot all right but you're getting less rain over the sea because it's it's not able to get the drops big enough so you might be getting more water transferred to the land and that's probably a good idea if it's not |
| 1:25:02 | done too much but if it is done too much then you get a terrible flood what we'd like to do is have a little bit for more more for longer periods and uh I think we if we exactly where and when to do it we could make uh more precipitation over the visits and we might find that we can make the monsoons be longer but less severe all right Marine Cloud brightening we've got the chance of moderating and extending the rainy season so you don't get the floods but you do get irrigated pastures and we've |
| 1:25:42 | even got a chance of by choosing the size of our particles to uh stop at raiding when the harvest's about to come in and therefore making your house better yeah I raised this argument at uh in my interview with Robin Williams on the ABC science show on Saturday which I've I've just put the link in and that gets a very wide audience and uh it was actually a previous meeting where uh Hubert Hubbard um uh put me in contact with um with Robin that led to that interview and they get a very wide audience and |
| 1:26:20 | it's that program's been running for nearly 50 years with Robin as the host on the urgency of geoengineering but what I said about Marine Cloud brightening was that it's a wonderful technology that can be used to manage the weather and because as Stephen has explained uh the uh targeted cooling of the ocean surface can regulate the El Nino and learning Nina cycle in the Pacific and also the Indian Ocean dipole and generally the cause of atmospheric Rivers is the high sea surface temperature and so by uh |
| 1:27:04 | generalized cooling of the sea surface the excess humidity in the ocean that has caused the the atmospheric River that's destroyed Lismore and that's likely to destroy California in the future when they when their cycle turns um is can be regulated and modulated the there's a paper by some people in the Cicero Labs from Norway uh Stern hotel and all they did was a bit more intelligent than most of the they just increase the condensation nuclei concentration by 50 only where there was already a low cloud |
| 1:27:54 | and this did increase precipitation in all the desert bits you know the Sahara and Australia and Mexico and places and South Africa by about 10 now 10 percent of bugger all isn't very much but but it was increasing it all the all the really big reductions in precipitation were all over the sea and there'll be people living in small Islands who would object to that but we could very easily provide desalination to people who live on Islands to make up for the missing mental I will send a map uh showing all this it looks a |
| 1:28:35 | very very benign thing to do it also showed a lot more Cooling in the high latitudes over Siberia and Greenland then there was a little bit of cooling in in quite a lot of places but most of it was in the north now why it wasn't doing so much in the South I don't know but uh maybe that's because the uh the clouds would yeah just doing it spraying where there's low clouds isn't a very complicated rule I'm sure they could find a better way uh than that but it was so much better than what all the |
| 1:29:12 | other modelers have done which is just just to treat between the 30 North and 30 30 South rain or shine all year round um so that's that's Stern I I'll uh I'll send if I send it to Clive will you circulate it I think I've said why not just put it down to the noac meetings um uh just reply to that uh email address it'll go to everybody Stephen okay right and then then you know it's you don't have to wait for me to do it right okay and I will look at it anyway um certainly when I get time |
| 1:29:48 | and I'll get to it thank you much appreciated um right what else um any more about the yep the Healthy Planet people are going to to cop27 uh Peter Fusco in that and I'm hoping that the the the Indians from the National Institute of oceanography will finally have their uh boy and flakes paper out on the the slow release of iron in the surface waters from them they had a bit of difficulty with their experiments earlier on and they've been trying desperately over the last couple of months to do experiments to show that |
| 1:30:27 | okay great so if you're hoping for their their paper to come out in time is you're saying oh in the next few weeks they'll probably do it as a side event I'm not quite sure where they're going to publish but uh hopefully that that side of it will get some some interest and the hpac's people will show the importance of Albedo right the Indians have very good uh climate modelers and climate generally because it's so important to them um my grandfather was the second director of their their climate modeling |
| 1:31:06 | thing and he trained up the third one who is an Indian and he was trying to understand monsoons back in the 1820s but um I'm walking proof that the ability in meteorology is not genetically related foreign [Music] he was a meteorologist in the Navy in World War II and he had to find places for aircraft carriers to go where there was a 15 knot headwind and if he got it wrong the planes would rush over he couldn't learn very heavy American fighters on rather small aircraft carriers so that was a challenge to to get your your |
| 1:32:01 | win prediction right you think he didn't have to work for Putin get poisoned for failing or something no no okay it all came to an end before the the the aircraft carrier they turned around halfway to Japan but they were going to be invading Japan and an atom bomb dropped in here good idea well could I just ask a final question to Brian uh whether the Australian Academy of Science got back to you I haven't seen it yet but uh when would that have come through because I'll search for that email now when you were going to you you asked if |
| 1:32:42 | you could speak at their conference and did they let you I'm not sure no I don't think I got anything back from that no it was it was quite a cold out of first I'm not sure we got any response that's because you're treading on Holy Ground you mustn't do that [Music] uh Australian Academy of Science um you know I think congratulations first of all Robert on your um interview this weekend with Robin Williams I'm looking forward to listening to it in detail and if there's a follow-up you |
| 1:33:20 | know just let me know I'll be happy to engage right where is the thing broadcast Authority broadcast I think it's it was August broadcast on Saturday yeah please do oh that's fine yeah the Australian Academy of Science exactly the Australian Academy just put me on their mailing list that's it that's all we got for our trouble oh well tell me when some you lose exactly did we want to hear about the Sai conference in Colorado I mean we're up to our 90 minute Mark at the moment I will send the links to it |
| 1:34:07 | you can re you can play back any selection from it there's a sort of time scrolling on the bottom and you you can skip what you don't want um but it's really all about um about stratospheric sulfur any good bits which you picked up Stephen um not really uh I was rizzling out for what I thought would be interesting to me and rejecting quite a lot of the other stuff that the the scrolling through is really really quite good it's a very efficiently run conference um and it's done at the end car in in |
| 1:34:46 | Boulder Colorado which is where John Nathan used to work um right so actually and that's wonderful and to that end I was just discussing Arctic strata stratospheric aerosol injection with Cambridge last night and uh I'm curious if you're running into if you find anything that would be a technical barrier to the notion of uh having just the existing airliners switch to a high sulfur tank North of 60 degrees north to achieve at orders of magnitude lower cost an injection at you know the tropopause is |
| 1:35:24 | 12 kilometers high up there so it's so easy to actually achieve that with a limited time scale of months instead of years um you'd have to be sure that what the the sulfur did to the jet engines right I thought there was some I mean high sulfur fuels have been used for decades if not centuries so I'm curious uh there's some way that we can go back to the old sulfuric uh uh fossil fuels and and and have it work all right wasn't that mainly on ships not on planes I I think think it would work on planes |
| 1:36:00 | as well right and the question was didn't we used to have high sulfur jet fuel well what we had was sulfur that was infecting babies lead and so the the regulation is about not allowing to have software and motor Fuel and so the old companies had to take the software out of the motor field and had to get rid of it so what they did was put it in soups bunker fuel so there was particularly high sulfur content in what the ships were burning and I remember reading somewhere that there was more uh horrible stuff in Los Angeles from the |
| 1:36:39 | ships than from the cars I think perhaps is pretty well it shows you how much salt of the was and ships and now they've been prevented from doing it and so we're going to get quite a lot of extra warming because we're not putting sulfur into the stress Fair anymore I'm not putting into the dropper right oh yeah there's trouble here yeah I mean ship tracks are just making clouds from sulfur dioxide just just yeah you can see where the ships go by looking at the sulfur dioxide yeah agreed so this question uh the babies |
| 1:37:21 | were getting affected by the sulfur and motor fuel although well the they had to put lead in the motor fuel to stop knocking and that was uh that when they were not allowed to put in uh lead anymore and they're funny that babies living near roads were getting led up to dangerous levels which has stopped stopping their brain development apparently yes no that's great well documented I guess how is that related to software though uh well the the the general thing about cleaning motor fuel not just from lead |
| 1:38:01 | but for other stuff too I see I see it was just a general Trend yeah um and the question is has jet fuel ever had higher sulfur levels close okay and I'm wondering uh maybe France has some thoughts on this is there some sulfur chemistry that could be less corrosive on a jet engine right oh that'd be great John's got friends it uh you can put it in if you will there there is no no problem with with the corrosion I think sr2 is not true so so corross if when it oxidizes you could probably just have um Elemental self up put in |
| 1:38:58 | as the jet exits so it doesn't go into the engine they're just injected into the the the uh the exhaust yeah I'll tell you it's just from as a pilot it's so much easier to just have it be in a mixture you know in the uh that tank is only selected uh higher than 60 degrees latitude and it's so easy for the pilots to just switch tanks and you're on your high sulfur Fuel and then turn it off again yeah right yeah I know it's quite a strict specification for Aviation fuels the the new airport |
| 1:39:38 | in Adelaide was held up for months and then this framed Colin was called in there was some slight contaminants in the tanks and they they couldn't open the new airport so it is quite a strict space but whether it includes sulfur or not I'm not sure yeah well when you wait on the balance business as usual and a melted Arctic I think we'll find a way to make this work yeah I think the the worry is uh that anything in the uh stratosphere uh any particles in the stratosphere are a catalyst for release of chlorine that |
| 1:40:21 | reduced it attacks the ozone and um and so there's been this controversy and then they've said okay well we won't use sulfur dioxide we'll use calcium carbonate but uh but Frank Franz has said that well anything it doesn't matter any substrate is is unfortunately a catalyst release of chlorine but I agree but now the benefit here is if we are selective with latitude and if the modeling is correct then a seasonal injection in the springtime will result in six months uh summer in autumn um you know uh improved reflectance yeah |
| 1:41:01 | and by the time you care about ozone which is in the winter time yeah uh you depleted the uh Arctic or the polar uh levels of sulfate due to the normal stratospheric convection and the descent into the troposphere near the poles um the the model the notion is that you want to time this so that you've pretty much lost your uh your particles by the time the winter comes along and that's when the ozone chemistry is so important yeah yeah and I think that what goes around comes around and what food can we go around |
| 1:41:39 | back to the equation and back up again and go around the round and uh I I some of it may come out but small stuff and gases mix everything goes sure okay so the real question is this if the truck is the stratosphere is moving into the troposphere I know for a fact that the rainfall that we're getting in the troposphere does wash out the sulfur very quickly and uh so then it's really you know are you talking about some fraction that isn't getting rain in the troposphere well we're getting rain storms all the |
| 1:42:12 | way up to the tropopause I suppose so let me know if there's some flaw in that reasoning there's much less rain high up now the question of how far down in the troposphere you get your ring but it's the the the things are much much drier in the stratosphere then to uh characterize that more fully but I wouldn't be surprised if it has to actually Traverse many uh degrees of latitude if not getting I mean I was under the impression that the you've got three Hadley cells but you only have one stratospheric cell |
| 1:42:52 | from equator to pole and thus it may have to get all the way you may have to Traverse almost to the equator for re-injection into the stratosphere well we need to answer that question I agree uh I'm not sure that it's um relevant because if the SO2 falls out from the stratosphere into the troposphere you're still be doing some cooling uh but it won't be for very long because it gets washed out um so so if there was some circulation back through the troposphere it wouldn't matter right yeah so it's time scale and of |
| 1:43:33 | course there's no there's little ozone in the troposphere itself so it's really just the amount they could actually get in the troposphere avoid the rainfall get back in the stratosphere enough to affect ozone um you know that's an interesting question that we could analyze with modeling and perhaps some people at Encore at the Sai conference could actually uh you know have some thoughts on this so be interested in any highlights that might be relevant to this question but I think if any style would be made |
| 1:44:04 | they should also look uh what's the UV depletion is by such a stratospheric aerosols and I believe that's that's so good that's what I should have said I meant to say that the loss of UV affects the oxidative power of the troposphere so the the essentially the methane sink um where the UV makes oh radicals and makes seal radicals a little bit of seal radicals as well we've had this conversation before and yeah and as we have and concerning the UV there might be kind of two percent reduction in UV |
| 1:44:52 | which would actually help to uh now our skin cancer my uh my purpose is about double so two percent reduction in UV would I think two percent is not much so it doesn't be four percent yeah yeah it'll be appreciated in Australia where we apparently have 10 more UV and 20 more skin cancer right so so we should do the uh inject in the southern hemisphere as well being proposed uh as a matter of kind of keeping the planetary balance you don't want to be accused of upsetting the balance we've abandoned balance years ago and |
| 1:45:43 | now we're just trying to avoid Armageddon yeah by the way I would recommend uh Greta's book um the climate book which is going to be released in the northern hemisphere in November 1st and I did have a chance to read it this weekend early release here in Australia and the audiobook was wonderful with three or four excellent readers and uh it's quite a Tome if you will on the summary science on very broad terms but also a political call as well but it's a it's a call for for CO2 emissions reduction doesn't it almost |
| 1:46:20 | particularly it's sadly a bit light when it comes to uh geoengineering proposals but um I'll have to read it again so uh yeah that's one of the authors Naomi Klein is is vehemently against interference with the climate system not that we have interfered already I know there's no pristine ocean anymore let's get over it yeah we've we've never done it deliberately before we've done it hugely inadvertently like we've actually called the planet successfully with sa2 so I think it's deliberate now I mean |
| 1:47:05 | just driving your your car around or flying we know what the effects are going to be it's it's probably distributed ignorance of the law is not an excuse anymore laughs well folks um that's our time any last comments or questions or even those uh yes uh Kyle Kimball is giving some kind of talk on the sixth of November um about what well he's he's the one he's the uh hello um he's got an email address because he worked in uh Estonia but he's actually from California um can you remind me yeah yes he says |
| 1:47:55 | his title is something like faster than usual uh ipcc aggravates global warming faster than usual oh yeah so so he's blaming ipcc for the climate crisis and the fossil fuel companies are pulling the first strings of ipcc so everything that comes out of ipcc is vetted by these by people who are under the Apostle fuel companies control and hence you get understatements of of the seriousness of everything okay so that's what he's his Talk's going to be about then is it on the 7th of November so he's he's not into |
| 1:48:56 | um climate intervention but he's into the uh ghastliness of this setup okay and uh and it's terrible that the climate activists think that the ipcc is Affordable wisdom and when it in fact it's the font of disinformation okay so um I guess you haven't had a chance to put a link in the chat but yeah I put it on a different machine unfortunately yeah I can't yeah okay Brian you're raising your hand I'll be raising a thumbs up a thumbs up yeah no I think it was a thumbs up but uh basically uh I I would even claim |
| 1:49:40 | that the term climate change may have come from the fossil fuel industry and we should start using climate disruption as a much more accurate term yeah climate climate disruption that's a good thought yeah let's head back to Peak life if there's some time of peaked life let's head back to that yeah from disruption to Peak life yeah that's right all right thanks everyone that's uh uh well past our bedtime oh well past our hour and a half see you in a couple of weeks thank you thank you very much everybody |
| 1:50:16 | see you soon bye |