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| 00:36 | good evening everyone good evening i i was hoping i didn't have to send you a reminder you you left at the last minute my reminder yeah wasn't that late it was yesterday actually i didn't send the recording the the the usual invitation until rather late i've been rather rather busy maybe that's what you mean sir no no i got two of them yeah i got kind of one i sent one only a few i sent the first one only if only about sort of thursday last week yeah yes so you're all recovered from uh royal media |
| 01:21 | oh it's walter wall been wall to wall here really not quite finished yet are we not well they repeated on tv tonight the funeral and all that presumably for those who were actually watching it on the ground who wouldn't have seen everything yes yes i've been so busy just writing all day and my wife's not impressed that i'm not very patriotic i know that feeling my patriotism is to the planet well lovely to see everybody um i'm supposed to host these meetings and so it's up to me to say come on |
| 02:07 | let's get on with it um so uh good good evening and well morning and uh welcome everybody so um okay let's do the usual i'm writing i've been doing a lot of writing so let's uh make a new a new thing can we discuss the attacks on people like ourselves and and uh and doug but martin by the uh the handy or like by the conspiracists can do and i i don't have much to say i'm just wondering whether it's a topic which others think is relevant for it to repeat i didn't quite catch what you |
| 02:51 | said uh there's been an email sent out talking about attacks on doug martin with the uh the conspiracy people serving him with 75 000 uh litigation claims wow that's no that's good to know about um sev because the any any of us that are proposing you to cure the climate problem might get the same thing it's mainly they they're served on any of us who have links to public institutions i think they'd have a harder time serving that on individuals but i i i don't know it depends on the laws of the |
| 03:35 | country um right so uh attacks attacks on um uh climate solution providers yeah are these climate deniers or what yeah yes climate restoration edc and people like that etc and people like they're not climate deniers though they may have another agenda but they're not climate deniers ah okay well uh antagonists to climate research they have political agendas we know what we're talking about so um anything else folks have you got anything to to talk about your paper in your research grant was that france france |
| 04:33 | me uh i'm thinking of new things but like at the moment uh they are not so you you can't uh tell about it but uh assume really i promise soon okay yeah um have some of you seen the recent paper by rickard eddal in which carlos duarte is an and a co-author on about sinking seaweed which is just published weeks ago i think maybe slightly longer it's called sinking seaweed in the deep ocean for carbon neutrality is the head of science and beyond the ethics why beyond that yes it's quite some quite some critical comments uh around |
| 05:26 | that and in fact i think he makes five points um well several points but um talks about risks and lack of scientific evidence lack of governance um ethical considerations stuff like that could you put a link in the chat uh yeah i can do i'll just have to find the paper i've got paper but i'll just find a link to it well i can see why it might be beyond the ethics if it's beyond the science but is it beyond science but okay and we'll get to that that's a good one anything else how are you working from |
| 06:10 | brian on his experiments and recovery from the uh the huge storms in the philippines from brian any would you like to report brian on your good morning morning brian would you like to report your muted again brian reported yep did did those storms hit the philippines i thought it was uh japan and china that's the more recent one there was two because this one was a couple of months ago and devastating well there's one that's just hit japan but there was one a couple of days ago that also hit china brian i don't know if you're having |
| 06:56 | trouble unmuting no i can talk all right would you should we would you like to speak about your um uh you know experiments your field trials yeah that's a topic that'll be fine yes yeah say update on field trials i'll put that link in the uh chat so anyone can pick it up and it is a freely accessible paper right thanks chris um and that's um marine permaculture isn't it yep um i'm just i i you know i think we've kind of said all that friends and i have said all our stuff i'm sure we've got any more to say we're |
| 07:56 | just sort of pursuing the same things with people and trying to make it clearer yeah um but i don't think it'll be anything particularly new to this group and uh what what's been there other than other things recently there was the methane did anyone see the methane sure some you know some of you saw the methane action there was a methane action webinar yeah i saw that yeah i was somewhat underwhelmed i think i would say okay it wasn't any particularly new was it but it's it's nice yeah um i think political support they're trying |
| 08:37 | to build political support which as we know it's not not easy um there seems to be much more breakups in the antarctic ice threatened now okay it's getting worse and worse but i don't think that's a i don't think we can there's there's much to talk about there it's simply all what we know yeah all we know what we thought was gonna happen is happening and fast uh i haven't been keeping up with that to be honest sev and that's your way antarctica now is now the the biggest shelf is now |
| 09:14 | under threat the biggest shelf in east east antarctica so the swage glacier or something no that's all right okay yeah there was something i read something a little while ago i can't remember exactly what it said now i thought it was interesting i saw a thing about um arctic uh the the arctic melting and uh the sea ice loss this year uh is less than i think it's one of the one of the biggest losses but not as big as 2012 which was enormous um but but what was what i thought was good um with the methane action webinar was sir david |
| 10:04 | king at the beginning uh laying it out pretty starkly that yeah um the arctic there's a there's a it'd be sort of saying where it's kind of entered a tipping point probably uh well certainly the the feedback mechanism is pretty strong there now should we just leave it at that and um see where we go yeah just on on that arctic ice thing the other thing that's on the tvs at the moment of course is frozen planet 2 which actually talks about some of these issues in terms of wildlife and so on obviously |
| 10:37 | but that's just the sort of uh it does illustrate the problems though that are caused by the uh arctic arctic ice in this case the particular they focused on in the well the programs i've seen so far anyway yeah uh nice yeah yeah it's all good to know this stuff it doesn't have to be something we necessarily have a lot of discussion about it's quite good to uh you know sort of share these sort of tips you can go and pick up that certainly in the uk anyway you can go and pick up that on the iplayer |
| 11:11 | and it may be accessible in other countries as well through various things i don't know but yeah i know okay thank you for that uh anything else for anyone right okay so let's kick off with that then uh any more to add on attacks uh it's maybe yes let's hear a bit more about it so yeah well howard simmons has sent me and presumably many of you a a climb of fact checkers hit with lawsuits email saying that there's an article describing what happened to doug but martin among other scientists after he |
| 11:54 | responded to some outrageous claims that were made about geoengineering it's quite chilling and that's that's from herb it's sent to um it's sent to oh i just got it from herb it's not yeah i haven't seen that directly to anyone on the hpac list should have received it okay it talks about uh the people from environmental watch uh serving coming to his doorstep and serving him with a uh 75 000 writ to reveal sources and and all sorts of nasty stuff and it's something which um uh poor researchers even if they've got a |
| 12:44 | link to a public group uh don't have time for it it's a it's an outrageous attack on the freedom of speech and i was wondering i was trying to think of what what defenses one might have and there aren't too many from what i can see might need anyone have anyone here had uh had any attacks on them and how did they defend against them we know that east anglia scientists did yeah by the way i put the article in the chat if you want to read it uh the art the article on um being uh this is what we're talking about here the attack |
| 13:34 | system yeah right yeah that's right uh it's behind a paywall so i put it through a paywall eliminator ah great thank you very much uh i didn't know there was such a thing right sometimes has to move around a bit but it's uh archive point ph um if you go there you can put uh a lot of different it goes through cuts through many paywalls so this is related then isn't it okay okay thanks yeah yeah so this is this this so this link here is does this overcome a pay wall or is this the result of having overcome |
| 14:22 | yeah if you click on it you'll see uh inside it that it frames the bloomberg article uh which it pulls from behind the paper yeah the the guy concerned dane wigginton is um quite famous for his um chemtrails um stuff that he's been going on for years so have i got the right link here i'm am i'm displaying this this is like that seaweed one no that's the seaweed one oh if i clicked on the wrong thing yeah there's another one the second link the second link is the one you want i can only see one link |
| 15:02 | here and it's from there's two in the chat that i can see huh i can only see one who can see your messages everyone uh maybe the electrons are a bit slow in some directions it seems to be today chat i can only see one chat in this from you chris don't know what's going on let me let me look uh oh i sent it only to chris exit accidentally because of the chat because i clicked on his link so here we go i'll just uh there we go um yeah there you go all right thank you ah there we go i'm sorry i'm on my telephone so i i'm not |
| 15:43 | that's all right dave swift um we've got it now that's all good uh researching with lawsuits records requests for factoring so these are these are these are searches in not in good faith um and uh remember michael mann he's probably the most famous victim of this kind of uh this kind of thing and you know in our project uh at blue dot we've actually spent an unreasonable amount of time worrying about this issue trying to forestall it from happening in the first place yeah and uh and one thing is this uh climate |
| 16:25 | and safety there's a climate safety and governance board um that should be up and running in a few weeks um so i can talk about in a couple of weeks and um another one is is that something you're doing then david climate safety and governance board or something else yeah we're setting it we're we're getting it set up we've got someone at a climate incubator actually uh setting it up for us because what would be the good of a company setting up a governance board and then make itself subject to it right |
| 16:58 | so um i'm drawing on my experience with the fda system and the irb system uh to design a a safety and governance process um and uh when it's up and running i will put it we have nothing to do with it except be subject to it myself really great david because yeah i mean it's part of getting social license is having someone who can actually say you know weigh in and say yes or no yeah have a bunch of you know it's a mixture of scientists uh ethicists religious figure someone from the affected community to weigh in on as a |
| 17:38 | panel yeah i'm wondering chris i mean as a government scientist you know about government regulations uh do you see the need for such a thing or is there not already i mean this gets talked about you know how to govern it i mean having some sort of independent body like that doesn't sound like a bad idea i mean they can't obviously at the end of the day actually regulate something but they could be influential and that is if you get something with a real credibility then i think uh the influence could be |
| 18:10 | significant um and they could influence regulators as well as the maybe the people who are trying to do things um could be on both sides uh yeah so i'll i'll i'll tell you a bit about how we address that i i i don't mean to hijack the conversation i don't know this is very interesting yeah so the issue is you know you apply with a process with a project you want to do uh you know we're going to put some equipment on a couple of ships and sail them around and you know we've got some bis work planned |
| 18:43 | we've got some yes work that's been done and uh you know we just make it's a long complicated proposal uh and then the board assembles a panel for each proposal and of the kinds of people i was talking about right um it's a couple of scientists ethicists religious figure etc uh and they weigh both the ethics and also the risk you know it's i call it the hippocratic oath right do no harm and yet just a few weeks ago someone cuts several holes in me right how did he violate did he violate his do |
| 19:17 | not harm oath yes the surgeon the consequence of those risks was worth it for the commensurate you know uh risk i faced without the surgery um and then if you know it's an iterative process you say well we don't understand this or we don't think you've supported this assertion whatever but at the end of it if they like it you get a certificate that says you can operate within certain parameters so if i've got a safety that says i'm only going to emit three tons of iron chloride in an area of 100 square |
| 19:49 | kilometers and i've done a safety study for that then i cannot exceed that and there's a regular auditing process done by a third party uh if you violate that you lose your certificate certification and the question is you know what's there what's kind of enforcement the fda does in fact have people with guns um we're looking at people with guns but we're talking with project funders and people like that granting agencies and whatever and saying you know if you you do you want to require that there's |
| 20:19 | some oversight over these projects before they're you know before they actually begin their activity and uh to to provide oversight as they proceed to their experiment or or scale up so i think the pinch the pinch point for most of these projects is the people supplying the money and that's the thought of how to control um the governance of the projects it's like you know the investors or funder funding agencies won't want you to do this program unless an independent third party has provided oversight |
| 20:57 | so that's the model we'll see how see how it works out you will still probably need depending on what you're doing of course some uh government regulation depending on what legal regimes and things might be affected um yes that's right yeah the other thing i was going to mention that can be helpful although it's not may not be any more enforceable is things like codes of conduct and the like um which have come up things like the oxford principles is a very simple example but you can get a lot more complicated |
| 21:28 | things than that in fact there's a process at the moment being developed by a group in canada i think or the us you know us i think and the aspen um group who are looking at developing a um code of conduct for ocean cdr carbon dioxide removal um so those can also be influential so there's actually a variety of techniques and sort of systems you can have to try and make sure that things are done properly and go through things like risk assessment and all the rest of it to make properly evaluate something |
| 22:04 | before anyone says okay off you go yes and i think we're going to need a lot of you know what's happened is a lot of projects stall because there is no one to say yes or no really there's just there are national governments but if you're operating outside a national you know if you're in the open ocean electric ocean outside any national boundary you know the imo has essentially zero enforcement function well yeah and uh there is still legal regimes but the enforcement of them is probably the main issue |
| 22:36 | even the imo is is the enforcement arm for the law of the sea right and they have not necessarily it depends what the issue is no i mean the imo only enforces things related to shipping and things like that there's phishing and all sorts of other activities that can be regulated by one body or another outside national jurisdiction um the idea that is completely unregulated out there is is a myth but the only problem is people don't enforce it i mean the law of the sea says all sorts of things like it's been enforced |
| 23:04 | now since 1982 and says you should be doing environmental assessment monitoring and all sorts out there but who's doing it and who's who's enforcing it not very much that's right that's right it's not just a question of the law i mean there's also there's other customer international law which can have some influence as well things like this certainly try certain tribunals which can have influence in some some areas so it's a very complex area and i know a little bit about it |
| 23:30 | but not a lot it's really an area for international lawyers yeah so because the enforcement so hard we decided to go for the money yeah because they those people often end up de facto and force um enforcers yeah i mean if they if they don't know the only ultimate enforcers if you're beyond natural jurisdiction if it falls to the actual flag state of the vessels involved that's who's ultimately has the control things like imo set standards and things they don't do enforcement and never have done it's all down to |
| 24:05 | national enforcement and the falsehood has to be national under almost all international agreements that's the way it works and panama isn't known for its enforcement uh no well did you know that mongolia mongolia is a major registrar for ships yeah a load block country yeah to be fair now actually panama is a lot better as a register of shipping now than it ever used to be uh they're actually uh and several other the major um uh shipping flag states are also i mean some of them are run by ex-us coast |
| 24:41 | guard people in the u.s so they know what they're doing um but there are still some let's say may not be rogue but let's say a little bit um less than um dodgy yeah dodgy if you like yeah it strikes me david that uh and everyone that uh that in a way it's now you know with the internet and yeah everyone's people from all over the world are concerned about uh and distrustful of people making money from climate interventions um and in a way that shouldn't be a surprise and they're going to be you know |
| 25:24 | heavy-handed sometimes and so what you're proposing is is really good and it seems to be quite good if there's a budget for for pr so that everyone in the you know any anyone who's interested in this sort of thing in the world knows about it so that um so these people that start coming up with these you know thousands of pounds ritz or whatever whatever they are um can be sort of put in their place uh and that so some news about that doesn't really most people sort of say well no there is a body there that's that's looking at it |
| 25:59 | we know about them yeah you know we read about them um we watch what's going on you can go to their website and find out what was proposed and what's going on i mean yeah the other thing to say about durian gear engineering watches they've got a particular agenda which is they want to prove that we have been geo-entering the climate for decades and decades and decades through these contrails from aircraft which they believe very firmly we've been doing and and they think there's all sorts of nefarious reasons |
| 26:32 | why we're doing it and that's what they want to prove that's really their core aim and that's why they're doing all these things they're crazy dues i mean i had i was at i've been at two jury engineering conferences where they were there intervening and making these wild claims one of them had a royal society and another one somewhere else in london some years ago now but they do that sort of thing yeah the etc group they if you actually go through their website uh i can state their mission is you must |
| 27:06 | use biochar and if you're not doing biochar and paleolithic farming you're wrong yeah basically they want us to go about the stone age it's literally uh environment technology and capitalism is what etsc stands for that's right yeah no it's actually no no it's actually erosion technology no erosion erosion because that's where they started out apparently i don't know how yeah no you're right i mean that their their um ideal aim is to sign up with the so-called um mother earth people which basically is |
| 27:42 | go back to peasant agriculture we should all go back to peasant agriculture the whole planet right well there's an interesting thing about that um so my co-founder is an anthropologist uh and she if you go to our website you'll see some a first-class report uh or a little brief report on her trip she went down to ecuador and now she's working with the pacific states to talk to them about just you know really just what do you think uh really to learn what they think and uh you know what do you think about what |
| 28:15 | we're thinking about doing and there is the there is no opposition to repairing climate in that she can find in the people she's talked to in the developing countries because they're exhibiting food experiencing food anxiety and there's no ambiguity that the climate is changing right the rainfall patterns have changed or whatever the opposition seems to be coming from germany uh netherlands canada usa the uk primarily with some french people as well right because rich oecd people in rich oecd countries figure well i'll probably |
| 28:49 | survive it but uh much less opposition in the developing world and that to me says hey it's even more important the stewardship of being responsible in your activities um but also that um you know that that it may be harder in future for the etc groups of this world uh to attack responsible science because the global awareness of its need is increasing i think though i would i would think you're probably a bit optimistic on that front um because the etc i've known about them for quite some time and basically |
| 29:33 | in the conventional biological diversity they've been able to persuade almost all the developing world that um their agenda is the right one in dealing with biodiversity and the challenges from things like geoengineering they basically portray themselves as sort of supporting the third world against these nasty capitalists in the in the global north uh who are sort of going to do them down basically um so it is uh and frankly they get away with it most of the time in the cbd meetings um fortunately um it's very difficult to persuade a load |
| 30:11 | of people who've been subject to utc's propaganda for years and years to change their mind yeah they're a small group funded by one woman who lives down the road from me yeah so you know you could do a lot with a little if you're fanatic yeah yeah yeah you know so i i think it i i yes i perhaps have a bit pollyannish about it but i reckon the uh the tide is shifting yeah i think the tight is sorry chris good luck yeah i mean yes the tide is shifting uh it needs to become a more i mean democrat to me the democratic |
| 30:51 | world is very messy you have all kinds of people saying all kinds of things and you have to have institutions that that in the end that people trust that's not easy either but it has to be something and it looks as though you're trying to put together some sort of institution that has some kind of balancing effect david uh or yeah it's an additional institution that because i think that um that most people i don't have much idea and this is what mana joe and you know um arya when they've been been with us |
| 31:26 | uh uh are trying to to help with uh it's it's all so big and complicated such a big can of worms isn't it i can't say much more than that any other comments i think it's very useful actually to hear both both of you speak on that right uh what else we got here then um what what is doug mcmartin i thought he was a atmosphere chap what what what's he what are they what do they like about what he's saying or doing doug mcmahon sev um i don't really know all i know is they're trying to shut him down right |
| 32:15 | does anyone know what he's doing in in the article um martin apparently had described a documentary from the junior engineering watch as pure fantasy um and the uh then the jury engineering watch claim that his comments have caused them calls facebook to limit the visibility of his documentary curbing its reach and the amount of revenue it generated so that's why he's apparently suing so basically they don't like what he said about it so so he's had a material effect on their sort of income or their their |
| 32:48 | effort yes okay so i can see how it's getting nasty it's not it's not that he's proposing some you know proposing something no no in this case it's not what he's proposing it's his comments on what they've said oh yeah yeah right all right okay that makes a bit more sense sorry i i missed who this was doug mcmahon oh yeah but john you mentioned to me after one of these meetings a few weeks ago a month or so ago that people are getting death threats was it david keith gets death threats |
| 33:27 | for uh stratospheric aerosol injection so uh i want to get this right doug mcmartin is being sued by the etc group no it's the uh geo engineering engineering watch the people who promote chemtrails theory yeah is that different than the geo engineering monitor promoted by the they they produce the geo engineering monitor it comes from etc so it's not the same group two separate creams so monitor is different than watch yeah geo-engineering watch is a group geo-engineering monitor is produced by the etc group |
| 34:08 | so georgie monetization it's a publication it's not a group thank you perhaps you should subscribe to it to see what they're saying all the time i do keep an eye on what they say just to be aware of it it's a bit frustrating at times yeah but i'm sure so at the very end of this article it says that the the case was was thrown out by a judge oh good i didn't read the right there's a long article about this and that they they asked a lot of people and then on september 1st it was it was flying |
| 34:46 | out i guess you spent some time writing the article and still wanted to publish it yeah well who's going to appeal it says probably won't get anywhere but you know you can spend close people to spend money right and it can be very expensive litigation in the united states uh i was sued i won and i still spent a million dollars ooh wow yeah did you get it back david nope wow that's a lot of money yeah i've got that much money yeah well i'm lucky i do because it's like the healthcare system you know it's |
| 35:27 | like if you don't have the money you can suffer yeah yeah welcome to the over litigious society right yeah okay um so how about this one then uh sinking seaweed is beyond the science and ethics that was just the paper that you put on screen a little while ago by mistake you could just put that on screen again perhaps clive i just was mentioning it the fact it's just come out recently i didn't know if anyone was aware of it right okay all right sinking i'm going to see me if you click on the pdf thing at the top |
| 36:12 | you can open the actual paper just at the top of the screen there yeah okay i don't know don't suggest we try and all read it no no no no no no i could scroll to the end or just read the abstract perhaps look at the abstract which is very short actually yeah that was that was there earlier um yeah so it's uh it's sort of saying it could involve unintended consequences so yeah fair enough and i think we're aware of this that people are concerned and and i think fair enough and that so these sort of bodies that david's talked |
| 37:03 | about um we need to be aware of all these all this stuff and comply with it it does add cost and so forth yeah okay thanks for that chris yeah and i think the sort of thing we have to bear in mind is talking about unintended consequences is that um mankind generally doesn't necessarily have a very great track record overall in doing things on to the environment whether i'm not just talking to marine here you know there's all sorts of invasive species and things that have been introduced inadvertently in places |
| 37:37 | and stuff like that so it's something that we do need to be careful about if we're doing something on a big scale yeah and something as open as the ocean it's not like if you're putting rabbits in australia they're not going to go beyond australia you put things in the ocean potentially obviously you know they can move around a lot and spread around so i guess that's another slightly different concern with the ocean to compare to the land sort of issues yeah yeah hugh hunt mentioned that |
| 38:03 | a while ago as well yeah and fair enough yeah i was going to say not to mention burning fossil fuels chris oh yeah that's another one that goes all around the globe and indeed putting it in the atmosphere as equally or on just a different time scale the ocean is a bit of a slower turnover time than the atmosphere yeah yes and these forever chemicals and so many i mean it's just a such a big uh i mean the thing is it's global so um i mean every time i see this this um not quite on topic here but the ukrainians |
| 38:40 | doing better and better and um china sort of thinking twice about invading taiwan i mean we do need a sort of function not a dysfunctional geopo politics we need them to talk sensibly to each other to sort out these problems that's where i go all the time um okay what um any anything else on that from anyone yes go for it brian well okay you might want to stop sharing your screen um the uh first of all i think it's useful in these conversations in ecology and economics to distinguish high gain from low gain phenomena |
| 39:26 | uh their professor tim allen wrote on this extensively uh from the university of uh madison i believe um wisconsin uh and he was quite an expert at this and you know things like rabbits in australia are an example of high gain phenomena where you know you add a species to a new environment and you're having an enormous effect on you know potentially uh on the environment by introducing another predator or another prey or what have you logan phenomenon is you know perhaps restoring a species that was already |
| 40:00 | there and uh just you know getting it back to normal uh something pre-industrial uh similarly you know maybe we would call ocean iron fertilization higher gain since it's a micronutrient that can be limiting in parts of the southern ocean but you know restoring natural upwelling where we've lost we've documented the huge amount of stratification that's take place in the tropical and subtropical oceans and look just getting back to pre-industrial would be nice we've got at least 3 000 square |
| 40:29 | kilometers of lost kelp forest over the last century due to siltation runoff and quite frankly all the good tropication that we've demonstrated in the pacific from japan to the coast of the west coast of the us so getting back to pre-industrial levels of natural upwelling and of primary production with macro algae kelp for us is a beginning and until we've gotten back our 3 000 kilometers we've documented that we've lost you know let's just try to get back to pre-industrial here so there's this is a |
| 41:01 | relatively low gain phenomenon uh and quite frankly the papers uh you know that that have been brought up including the one that chris mentioned suffer from a lot of reductionist thinking and i think we need to move beyond the thinking that got us into this problem to begin with so i think chris has some comments yeah i'd like to challenge you on this idea of bringing up welling back to where it was because yeah illegal traffic oceans have all always existed in the gyres they are they never had that willing that is part |
| 41:29 | of the geostrophic current system in the oceans so upwelling is generally a phenomena around the coastal margins or close to the coast from various features there are other circumstances where it can happen in some cases i know but generally speaking most upwelling happens in the those regions certain parts of the world usually eastern boundary current areas that's generally the case i understand the concern however stratification which has increased and which has limited increase of nutrients the deep ocean is |
| 42:02 | nothing to do with that boiling so i think the idea that putting upwelling into ocean giant areas and bringing nutrients up is restoring upwelling is frankly false and frankly you are then really missing i think on a global scale if you do it large enough very seriously with the ocean environment and i don't think that is something you would do very likely at all and i really don't think i think when you talk about restoring upwelling i think you need to be much more specific what you talk because it can be very |
| 42:32 | easily misconstrued and as i've as you maybe i've just illustrated yes you did illustrate that there's a strong misconstruction uh first of all if we're talking about regions okay and there's plenty of upwelling in tropical places like the philippines normally but the water is becoming too warm which creates an energy barrier a physical energy barrier to the same levels of upwelling that occurred pre-industrially and that's demonstrable by the buoyancy conditions directly so i understand the |
| 43:01 | claim that there's less upwelling in the mid-ocean gyres first of all we're not beginning operations there but then you see what's important to understand is that those mid-ocean gyres are expanding an area and that is affecting productivity on an oceanic time scale so it's not so much like there's less upwelling but these lowest productivity zones are increasing in area and that's been demonstrated over the past two decades by several peer-reviewed publications including uh polavena berenfeld and a host of others |
| 43:35 | over the past two decades but the reason i mention the jars though is some people have talked about doing agriculture in those areas and bringing up willing from into those zones so it's not you may not be thinking of it at all but there are people who are so it's that's why i think you need to be quite specific about what you're talking about that's fine but you know you have to understand that in sound bites it takes five times longer to um undo appearance uncertainty and doubt than it takes to |
| 44:07 | actually establish a clear and technical basis for something so of course you know we're working in public aura where getting into the details you know i think it's a matter of of understanding that and we do have a strong fundamental basis for this i'll also mention briefly we've got examples of mesoscale eddies crossing the atlantic and pacific oceans even in subtropical regions that have a noticeable and measurable amount of upwelling that occurs in the middle of these uh mesoscale eddies so in fact |
| 44:37 | yeah yeah and so that you know there's there's a great example where you could be out in oligotrophic ocean and you see some some upwelling occurring uh furthermore uh it's important to understand that whether it's in orogenic features like the philippines in indonesia or even in mesoscale eddies when you warm the surface mixed layer of the ocean by 1. |
| 45:02 | 1 degrees celsius and warmer you're creating a substantial energy barrier to the upwelling for you know forces so all other things being constant uh that energy barrier does significantly decrease the amount of uh upwind that does occur in those in those regions so that's a key part and we're seeing in places that historically had upwelling like the philippines major shutdowns in indonesia major shutdowns of uh the productivity and major shutdowns of we've seen losses of sixty percent on seaweed farming and we've seen losses of |
| 45:34 | 50 percent to 95 off the western coast of the u.s during the el nino years and the um the big warm blob and that occurred during the mid-2010s and the net result is sadly that we've seen an ecosystem shift from kelp forest to urchin barrens between california and the tip of tasmania so some very serious ecosystem chefs and in a world where you know it's 30 years since rio section 15 which said don't let scientific uncertainty be a cause for an action and you know being able to grow a tenth of a hectare of seaweed |
| 46:09 | yeah with some natural upwelling you know it's the reality is look like i'm not suggesting your your experiments causing any ear problems it's just that some people have wild scale ambitions like hundreds of thousands of square kilometers this is not like a hectare yeah yeah and and you know this is way ahead of the game the reality is indeed you know these papers are sowing fear uncertainty and doubt which actually creates a greater energy barrier to simply raising a which papers are you talking about |
| 46:44 | because i'm not aware of any such papers doing that well uh when it's when when there's you know papers like the one that you've posted and ones from tasmania etc a few that uh you know basically go through some long win long detailed technical argument and then post on twitter kelp is no help you know as a summary talk about over generalization you know literally we've seen this you know we've seen this from uh gallagher and others you know yeah but most of the papers i've seen i think are people who |
| 47:17 | have genuine concerns about the activity and i don't think they're doing and they're not doing fear uncertainty or doubt and they're certainly not trying to protect the fossil fuel industry as you indicated in one of your earlier presentations back in august which i did wasn't present at but i've had a look at the recording i think that's wildly exaggerated frankly in almost all cases most people most marine ecologists and marine scientists have some of them have genuine concerns about the scale of this |
| 47:44 | activity and how it could impact the ocean and i think that needs to be taken seriously and not just dismissed as if you're a climate denier saying everyone else is talking rubbish you need to take it seriously and i think you are a bit too dismissive and that you know ever you see give the impression that everything is absolutely fine and we can go and do this no problem and i think there's a lot more to learn yet and that's what the carlos duarte and the rickard paper is saying it's not saying that we can't do this it's just |
| 48:13 | saying we need to know a lot more and i think that's a perfectly reasonable position to take and that's not fair uncertainty in doubt well not by itself no but you have to understand how far it's gone i mean there is uh politics and science social media i'm afraid just takes these things to extremes i'm afraid within the world we live in well and sadly i mean this is being promoted by the authors like gallagher you know in other words they're the ones posting these headlines kelp is no help you know and it's like |
| 48:43 | well really i mean it's like you know that's a bit of a sweeping generalization wouldn't you say well i think the other thing you've got to look at the individual papers because some of them i think are looking at it from a sort of different perspective and what you're doing anyway so what they're doing what their analysis is is essentially irrelevant so that's fine because that doesn't mean that what you're doing is a problem it just means they are targeting the wrong target if |
| 49:07 | you like and that can be easily shown to be be so and so you know fine yeah the concern is this is producing a headwind you know because 90 of the population out there doesn't have time or even necessarily the ability to dive into these detailed uh peer-reviewed papers and get into the contextual limitations they just hear kelp is no help and you know that the other concern which i've seen from some people in the london convention and protocol area is that almost a stampede of people wanting to do seaweed and a lot of people going |
| 49:41 | ahead of for leather it would appear for some people's perspective uh in some of this not necessarily you at all but some other groups who are going into it seem to think they can just go to it and literally a couple of years they'll be doing mega scale stuff you know that's just unrealistic i think but that gives people a lot of concern and you've got to bear that in mind and because there is a there's another group out there for example who want to actually cultivate sargassum in the south atlantic gyre |
| 50:14 | and they're talking about doing i think 50 000 square kilometers this is what they're talking about they want to get that off the ground pretty quick so you know there's some pretty ambitious folks out there and and that will raise concern because you know you're jumping potentially there to a very big scale in a quite short time without really doing a lot of the basic science i think around it there's because there's certainly some some people who want to do who want to get there by doing the |
| 50:42 | trials a big scale to begin with they don't want to do any of the basic science beforehand they want to jump into the field trials at big scale and i think that's dangerous why do you understand how you're doing it yeah and some of those but some of those uh you know those companies that working on sargassum are working with mar fernandez and with uh victor smitachek and those are noted and well-respected scientists who are actually conducting these so i you know the the notable ones that i'm seeing you |
| 51:13 | know they are actually involving academia we're we're involving a number of universities in the us and in asia to actually do independent you know peer review the problem is these these uh you know papers that are coming in and i understand the concerns if they were really interested in understanding it why wouldn't they be communicating with us i mean the worst opposition that we're getting are from folks that are not interested in having the conversation they're interested in making a public argument about it and |
| 51:41 | it's like well if they really wanted to you know check their facts they'd be talking with us and there's a notice there's there's a conspicuous silence so i don't know i you know i find that it's more like the politics of science they have an agenda and they're going after the agenda by running along certain hypothetical lines and doing some modeling that's i think they're uncertainly in doubt i think that's a bit of a sweeping generalization again because i don't think carlos duarte you |
| 52:06 | would really say would fall into that category for example he doesn't people is his group he's a promoter of seaweed and all that stuff after all so you know again careful these sweeping generalizations not everyone's in the same boat by any means people have what's happening on the other side but what i encourage is communication yeah yeah and and you know we're doing things one step at a time what is needed to be understood is let's actually put rio section 15 into action and that is yes there's scientific |
| 52:38 | uncertainty i'm sure the academics would like to have more funding but if we don't go out and do some trials we're not going to know the answer and going to hell in a handbasket no no i mean now i'm quite happy with what your your approach to it i think it's fine no worries yeah i mean the challenge is like we have to recognize that papers like this do a lot have a chilling effect quite frankly on the investment environment and the reality is uh just let's getting back to a pre-industrial state something closer to |
| 53:07 | a pre-industrial state can do an enormous amount and and be in some some ways a uh you know we can recognize the state that we had pre-industrially through historical evidence and uh and take incremental steps to move us toward uh do we actually know what the pre-industrial state was yes in many cases we do i mean i think in terms of you when you talked about i said you say pre-industrial state what i think you mean for what else you said is you're talking about kelp and how much where it was and so on pre pre-fall so |
| 53:38 | it's not just pre-industrial state of the whole ocean it's to repel so again be careful talk about be specific don't just talk this is sweeping generalizations that give people the wrong impression well there are uh yeah that's certainly true and we have to proceed incrementally and we encourage conversation uh i think that the telling is absolutely you know those academic groups i mean i've had exactly one conversation with carlos he's helped the industry in a number of ways by documenting the amount of |
| 54:06 | seaweed that falls naturally off platforms up to a quarter of all the seaweed grown on these platforms falls off during growth and sinks a thousand meters a day according to our measurements to the abyssal seafloor which sequestered for centuries this is not a difficult thing to measure and the important thing is it's not just carbon sequestration we have we have major food security challenges as evidenced by the disruptions we've seen the last 12 months alone and when it comes to food security in terms of food |
| 54:35 | feed and fertilizer not to mention ecosystem regeneration of ecosystem services offshore and yes the measurement of this carbon export that's what we're talking about doing as an integrated framework and a lot of these papers are saying you know sinking seaweed's a bad idea well no it's not necessarily a bad idea to measure the amount of seaweed that's sinking as we feed the world you know so there's this integrated framework hang on you can't sink the seaweed and feed the world from |
| 55:00 | the same bit of seaweed you know you what you mean is some of you could think some of it and you're going to feed the world with the other part of it so you know this is um some people though want to do all of it they don't want to feed them carlos duarte has i know some people want to do all of it and that is example of reductionism let's go move beyond reductionist thinking let's talk about yes during growth carlos duarte has verified 20 plus percent of the seaweed that falls off these platforms during |
| 55:26 | growth we have the deepest moored seaweed platform on the planet at 350 meters and we're planning deeper platforms and so the point is there is a very there's a viable strategy here that literally gets beyond a lot of these concerns because you know it used to be oh are we going to have food are we going to have carbon sequestration well the reality is it doesn't have to be like that because we're seeing while we're growing the food and getting this harvest we can document the seaweed that |
| 55:51 | does fall off and measure that flux and that flux represents yeah that's a nice solution and yeah we encourage people to get that message out and the problem is uh you know sometimes that we've got a number of papers that are understandably responding to exuberance when it comes to potential for carbon sequestration but the reality is we've got billion dollar food challenges um and not to mention just keeping the life support system going for many of our collapsing marine ecosystem just as an aside i've forgot about the |
| 56:26 | paper i just saw today which has only just come out in science advances called global seaweed productivity which again carlos duarte is part of i've just posted a link in the chat uh where he which is quite interesting he's mainly i think talking about coastal stuff there but nevertheless very interesting so it's in the chat if anyone's interested that's great and having looked at that i believe 1. |
| 56:51 | 3 giga tons of carbon uh not carbon dioxide per year is documented as being the estimated carbon fixing services uh of those gulp forests that's helpful by the way chris you mentioned something about fossil fuels and i wanted to try to clarify that do you recall what the issue was fossil fuels uh we have you seem to suggest that some uh marine ecologists are trying to support the fossil fuel industry and i don't really think there's any evidence for that uh yeah i'd have to look at the reference i um you know of course speaking extemporaneously i don't know i |
| 57:28 | i'd have to see what you're referring to because i i'm not sure it was it was mentioned in it was think it was that uh on the uh 8th of august when you were talking about some of these things anyway i guess do you don't recall the uh the context ate the vodka um just a minute let's have a look i didn't make a few notes it was something about uh letting the fossil fuel industry off scot-free was that what the word oh no i think it was a con some marine ecologists were concerned that um growing |
| 58:01 | algae in the ocean would be a rationalization to continue burned baby burn oh yeah i don't think i think it's the opposite so maybe i didn't see it clearly okay but i think the intent is uh we're we're definitely committed to decarbonization and then uh drawing down the rest of course we've got 16 100 giga tons of co2 equivalent to draw down um yeah so i think it was that context uh okay maybe i read the wrong concept the other way no worries okay yeah anyway interesting conversation so chris i will say you're in the 99th |
| 58:35 | percentile in terms of being the top one percent that actually ask these questions we can have these integrated conversations and for that i thank you profoundly and please encourage colleagues around the world because literally i've had you know one conversation with carlos varte which i think we should have more of and not to mention a lot of let's just say nay-saying uh marine ecologists who you know basically aren't asking the questions or having the conversations if we really care about continuing the |
| 59:04 | ecosystems of the planet in the marine sense you know let's let's encourage these conversations and yeah i would i would heartily uh and warmly ask that you you know when you're in contact with these marine ecologists encourage them to have conversations with us because they're welcome okay sorry for taking up all that time climb no no no no interesting i would have interrupted if i didn't think it was interesting it was very interesting great to hear that and uh the the arguments seem to get |
| 59:35 | resolved yes and uh all those people are welcome to join this meeting chris if they'd like to and it's open to anyone um brian pardon migrants when you say rid that reductionist do you mean sort of oversimplifying well yeah there's this philosophy wait was einstein or someone who said uh you can't solve massive problems or even small problems with the same thinking that got you into those problems to begin with and i would just say the last two centuries of reductionist and perhaps overly capitalist thinking |
| 1:00:11 | of you know either profit profit profit or carbon-carbon carbon you know it doesn't really solve the problem you've got to you know solve for multiple uh variables concurrently or simultaneously and for us that means uh food security so that you know we can actually keep humanity going and enough food security not only for humanity but also for natural ecosystems and and being able to keep the life support systems going so we don't lose our marine and terrestrial ecosystems that keep our civilization going quite |
| 1:00:42 | frankly and in carbon export those all need to be addressed at some level if we get to zero carbon but we're on a dead planet you know will we really have succeeded and so these integrated approaches are what are being promoted by let's say the buckminster fuller institute since bucks minster fuller was a pioneer integrative design thinker emory levins uh with his integrative design engineering work uh that's what was that sort of that settled americans and finally let's see well we're also |
| 1:01:14 | with the edmund hillary fellowship which is endeavoring to do projects starting in new zealand but uh going spreading across the pacific and across the oceans i think these are good groups that are pioneering and and developing this notion of integrative design which actually connects very nicely to indigenous thinking as well because it turns out many of the indigenous communities are a lot more integrated in their thinking and sadly you know it we specialize and we we get into this reductionist approach um you know and and uh try to measure |
| 1:01:46 | everything but sometimes uh you know eisenhower was it was a great one of this is that if you can't solve a problem make it bigger because at the larger context i'm thinking out of the box maybe we can actually identify synergistic multi value trained solutions that will actually get where we need to go i mean 90 of our anticipated revenues for marine permaculture industry will be from food feed and fertilizer and initially less than 10 percent from carbon export measurement so uh this presents an opportunity and a |
| 1:02:18 | balance where you know we need to address several major concurrent effects of climate disruption concurrently and that includes food security and these ecosystem challenges so does reductionist is that similar to the word simplistic i'll say no and yes i mean it's a little you know if you're if you're a capitalist and you're just going to you know put some straight jackets on a particular enterprise and just say okay what's the capital in what's the capital out what's the time scale you know if if |
| 1:02:55 | we look at financial capital to the exclusion of environmental capital or human capital in the sense of our capacity building and skill sets of our our people and education that's a serious gap and a lot of times in some ways the rise of the corporation which was not anticipated by the founding fathers of the united states certainly um has has resulted in a bit of a psychosis in the sense that it is oftentimes historically been financial capital at the expense of everything else okay uh and and so i think it's trying |
| 1:03:36 | to move beyond that to a triple bottom line and uh blended organizations our non-profit is hoping to launch an industry and um the industry you know we're intending to have public benefit and i think the donation of for-profit patagonia to non-profit old fast uh collaboration if you will uh multi-billion dollar company whose entire proceeds are being donated to climate change development projects is a great example of moving beyond reductionist thinking and moving towards integrative design good thanks for that question sir |
| 1:04:14 | sure thank you brian and one other thing you said orogenic i don't know what that means oh that just means uh mountain associated um it's to do with uh mountain building basically you then you know you get the eruptions of stuff pushing up mountains that's all part of sort of you get these so-called arrogantly the periods of geological time when you get mountain building right it's so then you get it's all connected with the uh sort of these um specific plate bound plate boundaries where you're getting |
| 1:04:46 | uh plates coming together diving under each other volcanoes come up behind them and so on all right thank you very much and then beyond that orogenic uh in the atmosphere refers to uh you can get uh mountain induced upwellings and convection in the atmosphere and things of that sort where you have a a wind it'll hit the mountains and you'll get orogenic lift and so that just it means coming from the mountains and in this case the under the undersea mountains coupled with uh the western boundary currents and other other sorts of |
| 1:05:16 | phenomena will uh result in a current hitting uh an island uh boundary and and uh water you know being elevated oftentimes so the galapagos could be one example uh where you see some upwelling around the the margins of the galapagos and there are many examples of the indonesian through flow currents where there's a significant upwelling and downwelling occurring near the philippines near indonesia because of the huge topographic variations that occur and the strong currents it's also significant around sea mounts |
| 1:05:50 | generally as well and there's thousands of those in the global ocean yes and so uh examples near islands and then of course mesoscalise are interesting phenomena that appear to have some upwelling and downloading associated with them as well thank you i'm just wondering would anybody have a um not that i have a lot of time but a uh an objection to me posting this particular meeting as uh as listed on um you know that's searchable and findable on youtube well might have said a precedent yeah wouldn't it no well |
| 1:06:32 | is that a no then is that a yes you you'd object to chris no no if you're not happy then um if it was going to put you off speaking openly then i think if you know if we can speak freely it's probably preferable not to because then people will just carry them yeah okay i mean if we if you wanted to deliberately do a session like that on a particular topic that might be a different story yeah yeah i have thought about that then yeah okay thank you uh what i will do is i promise to post that this is a little bit sooner than them |
| 1:07:06 | halfway through next week um and uh and say a little bit about more about what the conversation was and promote it a bit more um okay thank you both for that um uh okay next we have we have 20 minutes um anything okay updates brian uh we're building a tenth of a hectare we hope to get it deployed in the coming weeks uh we see that as a key stepping stone to an economically sustainable hectare and uh each seaweed farmer there's a quarter million sewage farmers in the philippines each one's allowed to |
| 1:07:42 | farm one hectare and by by providing this deep water irrigation we can get their production back on track to where it was in the 1980s and 1990s and of course we can measure all the way back to the 1800s when we had us geodetic survey maps that showed uh continuous uh half kilometer wide rivers of kelp that were on the continental margins and uh we've documented that the demise of those over the past hundred years so it's a that's a good opportunity but this next step uh we just had some visitors on a first field site visit |
| 1:08:17 | last weekend uh they loved it they were like wow this is amazing and they they just said it's really clear the order of magnitude improvement you know we're calling it the restoration of productivity because back in the 80s and 90s these communities were thriving and now they're collapsing fantastic thank you thank you sure um okay sev uh antarctica guys yeah just um i i just been hearing in the last uh a few weeks that um not only is the is greenland much more threatened and losing much more but also the |
| 1:08:53 | the really vast east antarctic ice shelf we all know that the west one is unstable but the east one is now also thought to be under severe threat and that's um that's sort of a a 20 or 30 meter increase in in sea level height if that goes now okay it may take a couple hundred years to go but if it's 20 or 30 meters that's that's worse than even just a few meters from greenland 20 30 meters yeah that's something cambridge university would probably be under if if that that came came about i suggest |
| 1:09:39 | and a lot more yeah i've seen something much more immediate um and that's the the weights the glacier could collapse yeah and i put some uh links in the chat yeah i i just put a link in about the east antarctica one i just from nature there's a something you can just see although i'm not sure you can actually get to the whole article unfortunately so um doug mcmartin and others are have suggested a stratospheric aerosol injection north of uh 60 north and south of 60 south and i've been advocating uh |
| 1:10:29 | north of 50 north uh i think that would be as safe as doing it at 60 north but uh anyhow we're on the same wavelength and the point is that the the main concern from from the scientists who studied what happens with volcanoes is the ozone depletion and if you do it if you inject at mid to high latitude the the brew dobson takes the sulfur dioxide out of the atmosphere within a few months and that means if you inject late spring early summer kind of time you get the maximum reflected effect from the high summer sun |
| 1:11:27 | and uh you've got nothing in the winter to be reflecting infrared and acting as a blanket and you're not going to upset the the ozone hole or at least only a very small amount i think doug mcmahon has done probably done some calculations on uh how much ozone reduction might happen certainly they've they've done those calculations for a global application of their say hi i don't know whether they've done it for this arctic one so we uh so we would be rather relying on the brewer dobson circulation um i |
| 1:12:12 | i don't know how well verified that is uh that it is as [Music] you um how how much it can be influenced for example if there are big storms the the clouds will break through the uh dropper pools and spill stuff into the stratosphere i don't know whether that really has much uh serious effect on the general drift of the rhodopsin circulation which just takes takes air slowly towards the poles and the crop drops out uh into the uh troposphere yeah uh stephen salt has sent his apologies he's got an uh sort of important dinner to go to |
| 1:13:05 | this evening maybe we'll hear all about that in a couple weeks so he's usually the lone voice that argues with you john i i'm i'm not an expert i what you say sounds plausible to me any other comments from others here i saw i think that article that john was referring to and the only other thing i picked up on it was that doug martin said that by doing it between 60 and 70 degrees north or south you didn't need such specialized aircraft because you didn't need to get such high altitudes so there were some |
| 1:13:36 | advantages in doing it in that area yeah but i don't know why he's limited between 60 and 70 why not sixty and eighty or six well perhaps it's just that you don't actually get very much extra area if you go so close to the pole possibly also between 60 between 16 and 17 north it's easier to get to considering where the land masses are where the planes might come from yeah i don't know how easy it is to get the planes up uh in the southern hemisphere could be a challenge there you've only got south africa and |
| 1:14:17 | the tip of south america falkland islands or one of those places yeah if it's necessary they'll find a way they'll build a bigger airport or something yeah but i i can't find any really good argument against doing it i'm i'm starting trials asap because you know the danger that we're seeing uh is enormous completely unexpected according to the ipcc models and the the ipcc models of cost are completely bonkers and it turns out from the study that's been produced by somebody from estonia |
| 1:15:06 | uh that what the ipcc doing is is is worse than useless they are actually making matters worse their their economic model is based on on work from people like uh you know that come out of the nigel lawson institute and i've seen 60 trillion dollars but i mean he points out that you know the head of ipcc actually used to work for exxon he's exposed the possibility of extreme corruption in high places in ipcc and he does explain why all the models are underestimating the severity of climate change practically every model produced by ipcc |
| 1:16:08 | uh is is underestimating uh the severity and um i think sorry jungle yeah um that that paper said uh the moment it was said um the there's what the scientists say and then there's what uh the sort of next level allows to be said and it kind of filters it filters out the things it doesn't like or something like that yeah so you know undoubtedly they're excellent scientists within who work for ipcc the trouble is it gets filtered out and then there was a very good example of that actually see the filtering was actually |
| 1:16:50 | seen in progress so you've got drafts of the this i think this is ar five report it might have been ar4 of the art of arctic sea ice um compared to antarctic sea ice which was at that time uh for a time it was expanding and the uh as the arctic sea ice was decreasing with so they so they took the total and so it's not changing very much right yeah but they but they only they showed the graph a minute graph only going up to 2003. |
| 1:17:42 | so of course there was a huge complaints about that and they did uh modify it slightly but uh but the the conclusion was just the same we'll we'll not worry about what's happening in the arctic by the way i saw that um professor wade allison who's emeritus professor of nuclear physics at oxford university um very much not a climate denier i saw that he's been appointed to the board of the global warming policy foundation which is nigel lawson's group so that's extremely good uh because i |
| 1:18:17 | know that they're also interested in nuclear power and he's very much a nuclear power advocate so there we go um that's just a throw in um well it was it was the it was the economic model that the costs uh are on this assumption that that very little happens and and therefore you know there's very little cost and it's pretty linear uh and of course it doesn't affect the the wealthy uh countries at all yeah actually the costs are non-linear they're going up exponentially oh yes yeah yeah and um but who's |
| 1:19:01 | who's documenting that who's who's pointing this out why isn't it at the top of the agenda it should be ipc's property gender isn't it well they're beginning to be um criticized um as as you've just said with that paper um which is this is all good i just want to ask franz because um there was this chat after one of these meetings friends with you and john when john said if it's just a small stratospheric aerosol injection you know at high latitudes during the summer months then maybe it wouldn't be |
| 1:19:36 | too bad for uh the troposphere for you know the oxidative power of the upper troposphere as we've been saying um do you still think that france i mean dude you haven't said anything you haven't tried to disagree until that's right brian's got his hand up for a while anything your friends you're muted you have to click on mute i i'm not sure it is restricted to a small relative small area um the arctic or antarctic yeah they're saying but i think was it between 60 and 70 degrees north |
| 1:20:20 | they would put this where the troposphere that was just quite low there and they just put it there in the summer months just in the spring and few summer months three months to curb the summer melting of the ice they think they can uh reduce the temperature by two degrees and then out the poles that's right but uh it's well known that the poles are the eyes is especially self-eyes it's melting from below from the front of my martian the warm water coming in yeah so so i think the assumption that the hope |
| 1:21:08 | is that you would uh warm the cool the the southern ocean yeah ocean current uh that goes around um yeah yeah it sounds like that might not be enough it's only two degrees if if such experiments uh are done okay it it may last uh two years uh until the uh as long as if you put these uh sl2 uh uh produced aerosols in the in the it should be gone in less than two years lower stratosphere and uh do you think how long uh uh it lasts the the if you experience you have to keep you have to do this every year all of they fall possibly for decades |
| 1:22:13 | but then it falls down into by brewery dobson and it's only doesn't last only lasts a few months not two years just a few months i think it's multi-year up there um not with the not if the brood dobson circulation is correct and okay and i haven't found anybody saying that bruh dobson isn't correct but true dobson goes circular so it although it comes down again it goes up again once it comes down the troposphere should get rained out in terms of it should just get rained out once it comes down |
| 1:22:58 | uh stratosphere around the equator equatorial belt and it leads the stratosphere um much further north does it leave two years later up uh when it comes down in the night yeah the nearer to the equator the longer it stays so is that the two year cycle then is that's when it can take two years all right brian's been very waiting very patiently for at least 10 minutes with your hand up brian well i just wanted to comment on some places where the framing may be you know under forecasting the problem um you know we |
| 1:23:40 | note with interest that most people think of methane as having say a 28 factor multiplier on co2 over 100 year time scale and that's an interesting framing that was actually analyzed early on by several groups um and of course on a 20-year time scale you know a pulse of methane uh would have let's say an 84 times forcing of the carbon dioxide but um what's significant is when we're calculating the effect of these greenhouse gases in the atmosphere it's important to realize that the concentration of methane is not |
| 1:24:12 | decreasing it's increasing and if you actually look at the nearly two parts per million that are there and the instantaneous forcing which is 120 you realize oh this is contributing 240 parts per million co2 equivalent to our present warming is it 240 i i can't get an answer on this i've only seen 120 is it oh it's 120 x times two parts per million so 240 parts oh that's what it is okay thank you more than half of the co2 level so it's very significant and you add those two together and just those two |
| 1:24:45 | gases are now contributing 660 parts per million which is over twice the pre-industrial levels of 280 co2 and only 500 parts per billion in the methane chris someone on the me i can't remember if it's the methane action conference last week or there was a webinar before but one of them some person reckoned that the instantaneous me thing was closer to 250 times co2 i don't know what evidence there is behind that but that was the claim if you find something higher please let me know i haven't seen anything written down |
| 1:25:25 | that's an example you know how the historic framing is leading us i i think we need to really showcase how bad the problem is and get beyond these kind of lagging predictions uh that are you know are common at the ipcc yeah i mean certainly the methane action folks are very keen to promote the fact that the the instantaneous sort of heating of methane is very significant much more than people realize and then we can actually do something about that much easier than we can with co2 because we can do it short term |
| 1:25:53 | because we okay okay you convert it into co2 because that's the simple way to get rid of it but it's still a lot better than leaving it as methane for the short term uh warming potential absolutely right i'd love to hear more on that i'm not familiar with this committee if you have any links uh okay anything actually i'll see you guys just find it and stick it into the uh web thank you they kind of formed um from peter fykowski uh he's sort of and uh they've they've sort of guardedly uh hoping that iron |
| 1:26:29 | salt aerosol is going to you know reduce uh deplete methane from the atmosphere um fair enough for them we very much appreciate their collaboration john uh brian do you have a reference at all thanks chris thanks do you have a reference uh for uh and they have daphne weisham as their chief executive officer who's absolutely wonderful and has lots of uh links with um uh ngos um a lot longer standings you know just knows them all and been bringing them on board the idea of of you know method methane depletion |
| 1:27:04 | um as one of the things that can be done uh do you have a reference to the 120 times per part per million yeah i think it's it's available online um this is pretty well recognized that the instantaneous uh methane effect is at least 120 could be higher according to chris or others but um you know i think uh you can it's easy i could we could find some articles on the uh yeah online right when i looked it up it it just kept saying 120 and i never really quite know if i've understood these graphs and there are lots of |
| 1:27:39 | graphs said 110 i was trying to establish it with them anyway with with steven salt but if it's if it's 120 x per part per million then that makes sense uh that's what you seem to say just now uh brian i thought i think so yeah it's it's a 120x multiplier and uh we have to confirm that it's by by mass versus volume but those factors of two um we can address and so i think that it's really um i i can try to find a reference and see if we can post it okay there was i just posted a link to the there's a |
| 1:28:14 | recording of the methane action conference last week which is already available so i've posted that as well so you should be able to get that thank you very much yes thank you and sir dave king spoke at the beginning of that yeah he did a keynote that's right and there was some uh correction he had to make which i think that was was that to do with the instantaneous meeting yeah he did make a mistake yeah and so it's uh it's even he's not you know getting it wrong so it's an incredibly important thing that nobody |
| 1:28:46 | seems to know the answer to be like very good yeah okay we're nearly at the half past uh it's been a wonderful meeting this time nearly at the half past uh the hour um um anything else chris you you mentioned frozen planet too i think perhaps yeah just something uh it mentions all sorts of things about the arctic and the melting okay a lot of its effect on wildlife but quite a lot of it is pictures of melting ice and how much green land ice is melting and so on um so that's it's worth just interested |
| 1:29:18 | you get some nice sort of views of massive amounts of water pouring off the green and going down these great moolins right down to the base of the ice sheets um so that's interesting and the other thing just um some of you know renault richter yeah um he gave a presentation at that meeting action conference so that's worth having a look at [Music] we know him well he discovered franz and co-wrote there 2017 and he's i think they're he's methane action sort of scientific advisor or something to that |
| 1:29:52 | effect i think that's right yeah yeah yeah yeah uh renault has been a valuable partner and still is okay uh everybody well thank you for a great meeting as i said um and uh i'll try and get the the recording out as i said bits a bit sooner and with some uh description of what we talked about see you in a couple of weeks everybody brian hi brian yes you're often at the end um i don't never know if you want to have a bit of a chat at the end sometimes people hang around at the end and have a bit of a chat like john or friends |
| 1:30:42 | sometimes yeah it's just morning here and happy to uh connect uh you you want to do it on the recording or just off the record i'll take the take the recording hang on it uh |