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| 00:00 | that'll be um face-to-face good morning all right don't let me interrupt an important conversation we were just exchanging uh social news right uh okay i'm just looking at something from uh doug there we go trying to catch up with everybody okay you can't even see me can you that's better yeah hi hi hi robert yeah i saw you've got is it prague uh your website yes um it's looks very good oh that's nice of you to say yeah um no i really think that uh is that your doing uh yeah i've made it uh so working with |
| 00:51 | uh john nissen and um doug mainly right so because we've uh i don't know if you watched last uh our last one of these um brian hurts and brian brown von hurston came up with and said that we should make a menu of choices available because manager green you know we're all saying look you know it's all very well talking about it but if nobody else gets to hear about this stuff then what's the point um but your website looks it's it seems it's ridiculous for to make two websites saying much the same |
| 01:23 | thing i i think you know should pull efforts um i'm proud i didn't have i haven't looked at it in in detail um are you going to start doing blogs or you sort of raised yeah we've got blogs on it yeah um would you be able to say a little bit about the website today and what your plans are and you know where you're going with it i think yeah sure that'd be great thank you yeah hi doug did you get my um i haven't had a chance to look at it so um properly you have two choices landscape or portrait |
| 02:04 | okay i i saw it has larger font if you want to share it yeah so we can let's discuss that uh so is this the thing that john nison talked about yeah he uh he sent a couple of emails with information that i gathered up and put together in sort of a meaningful way it's not complete by any means okay so i'm not going to it's a starting point yeah it's so yeah great it's step by step isn't it so uh so now this is not the menu of choices though is it this is um uh john nissen's sort of six |
| 02:44 | kind of points about his um his six and uh he calls them scenarios but they're sort of variations on a theme of the the temperature trajectories um adding you know business as usual decarbonization in two different forms um carbon removal in two different forms and then arctic cooling and whatever but so the the final result is sort of a result of the other five so it's not a scenario yeah anyway okay so would you because he's not going to be with us today um can i put you talking about that on the agenda doug |
| 03:28 | sure i'll i'll do my best i don't know exactly what's in john's mind but um well i will at least explain what i've done okay that's great thank you all right uh let's just see how we're filling up uh hi brian from australia are you still in australia are you back at woods hole brian didn't hear that maybe it sounded like australia just about and hi john it's definitely in australia you're back from your travels are you or back from your holiday yes this is some monday night |
| 04:13 | yeah right after easter and uh france good to see you as always friends yeah and we have grant nice to see you grant and uh ron right so i'm gonna let's just get to it do the usual i don't take it for granted sometimes i say to myself wow these people keep turning up um but i guess my plan is always to open open it's the floor as soon as possible okay um uh so i've i've got a question i'd like to ask chris vivian if he turns up uh we don't see stephen salter i've got a question i'd like to ask him as well |
| 05:07 | and basically thank him for his calculations um so we have uh i've asked uh doug to say some stuff uh and sev sorry about your um invitations not getting through that's fine i got them eventually it just didn't come under under clive which i'm used to well you've got them for someone else so that's yeah so yeah i got it from a multiple diane and others right okay so hopefully that'll be fixed in future so uh why don't you just say scenarios scenarios because it's temperature scenarios and it's other |
| 05:46 | strategies whatever but right but i think everyone will uh everyone would have seen the email from john listen so this this is from john this yeah uh hi daniel uh i i see you tried to call me earlier and i wasn't anywhere near my phone nice to see you you i can't hear you at all daniel if you're speaking yeah okay and it's i suppose easter monday so i wouldn't expect the numbers to be quite so much uh any other items on the agenda we could talk a little bit about whale migration routes and threats |
| 06:29 | only a little bit can you hear me now by the way yeah yeah all right yeah just to just i might okay okay hi everybody hi daniel you've been on the other you've been with the other people the people's my people's judy in front call them which one is that is that is it the prague people that meet every other there's h pack there's prague there's no hack yeah um we're all trying to do something oh yeah it is but yeah and i'm also on this or like um absent without leave uh front as well |
| 07:07 | being uh just uh yeah oh good okay thank you dan um okay so anything anything else for the agenda uh actually i haven't decided how to uh how our best to put up the various solutions we're offering how to put up the first solutions right so actually yes so i said i'd like to uh ask robert tulip uh to talk about the website so that's the prag website um [Music] and i don't know what your plan is robert so i'm just going to put as a question there list solutions uh okay um anything else for anyone |
| 07:56 | hi manager you're very kind of uh sort of tinny and distorted voice brian discuss something paper what was that some technical aspects of the ministry of the future particularly with respect to glaciers right technical aspects of ministry of the future um what i've heard of that ministry of the future is that's a particular person isn't it somebody was supposed to know it's a uh it's a novel that's out recently but they proposed some interesting uh glacier interventions that might be worth discussing |
| 08:44 | okay thank you kim stanley robinson uh kim stanley robinson yeah let's put that down yep thank you um anything else that might be enough but um if there's anything else uh manager uh so our sort of um menu of choices yep yeah i i would uh give a quick update on what i'm doing in the hudson valley um to educate the masses and and also a reminder about the um shared uh spreadsheet so those would be my two topics uh if we get to them yeah let's make sure it's try and get to everything and uh shared spreadsheet okay |
| 09:44 | i'd like to find out something if if possible yeah yeah you're good friends here which is about i insult aerosol and um what what's happening with that because i suddenly thought well i haven't you know kevin lister for instance i haven't heard anything about him or from him for ages obviously i was in the um you know in the organization historic climate and i'm just wondering has there been that sort of breakthrough in terms of the research uh because i noticed that peter feikowski's uh book which |
| 10:15 | he's as everyone's seen his email and he's obviously released his book um the only um if it has um no mention of srm but it does have the um iron soul aerosol mentioned i think or it doesn't mention it specifically it mentions methane oxidization or oxidation but it doesn't say by which method is talking about that and i'm just wondering if if there's been a breakthrough yeah um that's one thing i'd like to discuss or is it okay i can say some stuff about that uh okay and possibly a few other people |
| 10:48 | here might be able to say something about that we've seen something recently from paul beckwith uh so let's give some news on that thanks okay anything else for anyone okay so that sounds like that's uh what we're going to talk about okay let's any preference on what we should uh start with if not um i'm gonna ask doug to to speak so um but let me put this up uh so this is the email i just got from you doug um can everyone see that i never know if the picture of people is in the way um i've created two versions of the same |
| 11:37 | data uh vertical portraits landscape okay so which is that there's two okay so one's portrait one's lance again okay it's just uh let's just open the one so sorry i've been on mute i've been talking to myself [Laughter] this was kind of tiny to read i thought it would be better to show it in portraits so it would be larger but john has asked me to put into a spreadsheet format the six scenarios are the six curves that are on the temperature trajectory diagram and the um the base case of course is |
| 12:23 | do nothing business as usual i'm just so we'll we'll bring up the diagram if anybody wants to be reminded but of the green curve which is basically decarbonization by 2050 i'd quite like to see the diagram is is it i have it i have it here let me just grab here okay i think i have might have is this the sort of the ipcc scenarios that they're just that you know no it's just john's it's john and my temperature diagram okay uh let me share my um i've given you share access okay okay |
| 12:59 | so uh let me go to share screen and it says i can't oh sorry i gotta stop sharing my uh china please okay now let's it should be right well okay here's one version of it the first one okay this looks like this sort of typical ipcc thing but is it not let's see whatever i'm sharing i'm not seeing like um that's the shape of the curves different scenarios yeah i can't for some reason i can't see it let me see how i i'd be nice if i saw it yeah so um i think i did something wrong okay |
| 13:53 | now share are you sharing your screen yeah this as you can see right what we've got here is global antarctic mean temperature anomaly so the heading is global mean and arctic temperature trajectories for various scenarios and without with and without co2 removal so can you see can you see the tiles of the all the people on the call but not the diagram oh here we go okay there we go right okay i had a bunch of other pdfs on top of it okay okay so um so the the brown curve is business as usual um it includes so2 cooling from power |
| 14:41 | plants so it has that benefit doug what's the sort of context of this this is presumably this is the no doubt there are numerous people here who know all about this who were on the other calls on the prague call so this is different scenarios okay for different interventions yeah and somebody's done the game this was inspired by jg um shepard back in 2014's napkin diagram which john was talking about about a year ago and i said john i can't visualize this and he showed me that and i said well then he updated it and i created this |
| 15:22 | based on his update so this is john shepherd's a business as usual yeah um decarbonization yeah hold on a second i got to get into this phone call i don't know okay okay so the the brown is um business as usual which includes so2 cooling from power plants the green is decarbonization by 2050 but it does not include i mean the so2 cooling goes away yeah and it's also been modified to include jim hansen's estimate of double double warming per decade so in this region it's 0.18 degrees percent per um per |
| 16:21 | decade for this period 35 40 years and then projected out 25 years it's increasing at 0.36 degrees c per decade so the slope doubles from here per decade per decade from this area to this area is that so we've adjusted this curve to match jim hansen's prognosis okay and then gradually tapers off up in here yeah um it's the dotted green line the lower estimate of that same um scenario see that again the dotted green line that curves the dotted green line is not identified here because we don't want to upset |
| 17:06 | anybody but this is our estimate of what michael mann is talking about so michael mann believes that where are we today we're right here today michael mann believes that we can reduce emissions and level off the temperature at 1.5 degrees well 1.5 degrees is down here uh-huh so that's not going to happen so so that's uh that's our or someone we knows uh amendment to michael mann so that's what we're saying would happen if michael mann's scenario played out of just reducing emissions there's no documentation other than a |
| 17:50 | bunch of lectures that he's given okay so that's this is i call these different assumptions neither one is right it's something in the middle so some place we don't know but these are different assumptions yeah and given what they are that's there then we have the red which is cdr and i don't know what this is based on but it's probably just a nice swag scientific wild ass guess that goes up as high as um two degrees so this this brings the temperature to two degrees whatever assumptions that includes we have it's |
| 18:27 | not documented alternatively this is peter bukowski's trajectory based on his something like i don't know the number six gigatons nine gigatons whatever it is for a period of time and then it changes that after a different period of time so we sort of estimated this as what peter furkowski is shooting for yeah okay again it's it's a different set of assumptions the point here is that none of these get to where we think we need to be okay so um the purple line is basically where we would like to be |
| 19:06 | that is restoration at about 300 parts per million zero degrees over pre-industrial net ballpark basically as peter calls it climate restoration to get there though with all of this going on we've got to do something whether it's achievable or not as it is debatable so this is emergency action whatever it might entail um rain cloud brightening ocean pasture forming all those you know plankton cub whatever yeah whatever they might be that's a that's a what do you call it an aspiration which would then bring the global temperature |
| 19:46 | down as well right so that the spreadsheet that i put together basically enumerates those six lines i wouldn't call them scenarios those those six curves are on the um on the chart why wouldn't you call them scenarios so where we're going with this i don't know but um that's all i've done is talking at this that's fine now i'm not going to go back to you they do seem like scenarios to me okay they're different sort of choices of intervention and it's making the case for cooling |
| 20:19 | saying that if you don't have these are this is a yeah this is a whole range of scenarios right here for cdr yeah depending on what assumption you choose yeah and this is a different set of us whether you know if this is based on the science not based on the scenario it's not like i would rather have this one or i would rather have that one um this is they're both based on decarbonization but a different set of assumptions as to what happens when you get to zero yeah it looks very valuable uh doug |
| 20:49 | it seems to show that without um regional srm or you know some emergency um direct calling you can end up with at least more than a decade from now of continuous warming or you know further warming which is going to threaten well agriculture for a startup it could be two or three or four or five or six decades oh yeah i mean even peter kovski's uh assumptions it seems that it's gonna rise before it falls or at least you know until yeah 2035 or later before it falls or not the only thing for sure i think we know about |
| 21:32 | peter's idea is that it would reach one degree at 20 50. right okay and that was based on 60 gigaton pulldown of carbon dioxide here uh yeah i think i said six i'm at 60 yes 60. wow okay but it but it's um it's it's tapered down and it goes 60 for a while then it drops down to something less than something less um okay to me it's irrelevant the point is it's it's something like that and it's not good enough yeah and all of those projections out there the dot the dotted lines and the red |
| 22:16 | lines are as you had suggested i think mentioned wild-ass guesses there is i don't think there is any substantial science behind those you know i think the the shape of the curve relating to peter's uh projections of carbon dioxide draw down we said well it'll be better than this but so let's create something that looks a little better than the solid red one so there's not much science but it is effective in drawing attention to the reality of the the the hazard that exists that's true there's no science behind |
| 22:59 | any of this except what jim hansen told us up here right this is the only thing that we have anything substantial uh to back up um the rest of this is all aspiration so they're wishes basically wishes yeah okay on the basis of this john i think would like to have a risk analysis and um put some costs against implementation as well as failing to implement something the cost of doing nothing so i think that's where john's heading based on what what i've read in his emails okay the spreadsheets are supposed to |
| 23:35 | show okay so interesting interesting sorry i interrupted you closely yeah that's the interesting thing about this diagram because it's not talking about carbon levels result um there's nothing to differentiate for instance if the blue line is 100 due to srm and no carbon drawdown or reduction or if it's you know 50 50 or whatever that sort of thing isn't shown so it's an interesting open-ended i think how we get them for instance yeah if it's not through carbon drawn and so we still |
| 24:08 | have 450 parts per million but we managed to get down to naught degrees for an intensive you know stratosphere so or um other srm then that's going to be a totally different killer fish too if it's uh you know um we've also got drawn down the the um 410 parts per million down to 300 or something so um you know how how sustainable it is i suppose basically it's uh it's more intuitive do i want to be here or do i want to be there you know where would i rather be yeah so it's kind of sort of suggesting |
| 24:48 | different interventions and this is what we'd like them to do we'd hope they might do kind of thing and you certainly don't want to sell it as this is concrete because no no no credibility no but but it's still useful to be able to say um what what would be the cost what would you know we sort of think that this the this would be the intervention and this this might be the outcome and these would be the costs cost of the intervention and then and then the cost of not having the event the intervention at the the green |
| 25:20 | uh the cost of global economies you know all the rest of it which is good it gets complicated because you're talking of dynamic over time yeah i mean i think the problem at the moment is lack of solutions lack of understanding of solution or or just too much there's a obviously it's a historical uh um objection to solutions um you know from as we've discussed etc and so forth but that is changing uh as people realize how serious this is and and how quickly it's changing um so it's still a useful tool to communicate |
| 26:04 | i think i mean it's as long as it's made clear that that there isn't this is more of a sort of costing exercise and as an argument exercise rather than um any uh you know any uh sort of defined science but even at best even this so-called defined science it doesn't you know that they've been wrong haven't they that there's been that whole this whole thing about scientific reticence um not taking into account not not knowing how to calculate the effect of of of uh the ice caps melting and any of the the |
| 26:46 | sort of glaciologists not not too sure how quickly the glaciers uh will accelerate into you know movement into the sea and so they just ignore it so forget that um and let's just say that the sea level will only rise by two feet by the end of the century uh so even the sort of accepted science is you know dubious at best and so this is uh is more of a tool to argue about interventions and also let people know that there are these possible interventions a lot of people have no idea and this is what manager is trying |
| 27:24 | to do is trying to let and inform people that scientists are talking about a whole range of different interventions uh not just mana joe but kind of all of us but i want to i'm just going to move this up a little bit so you can see thank you what i did was put a magnifying glass on it so i got rid of all the lines and all the all the black backgrounds so basically you have as i said earlier you have two sets of assumptions or an infinite number of assumptions between the green solid and the green dashed lines we don't none of them are |
| 27:57 | right nobody knows similarly with the red neither one of these is right they're both definitely going to be wrong but it's a set of assumptions that gives you a range yeah which is as nana calls it the gap between here and there it's enormous yeah we just don't know what tipping points might play out if we're already past tipping point you know how many tipping points so we've already passed if you could actually define a single tipping point um you know usefully um okay yes so it's showing you |
| 28:34 | you've got a very nice magnifying glass that shows the difference yeah i had more fun with that one okay so i don't know if you want to go back to the spreadsheet yes please yeah that's good that's that's the context thank you yeah you want me to unshare uh unless you've got the spreadsheet there i have it i'll let me just uh shop stop sharing and go grab um oh i can see it here welcome chris and uh david henkel wallace and uh eduardo grieves hi chris hi well they were down at the bottom of the |
| 29:19 | page here but i'm not finding them oh yeah with this for the duration chris i was i would like to have ask you a question not now but if you're going to be here you expect to be here great thank you uh shall i just share my if you can't find it doug i can quickly share my screen ah here here we go yeah i got it so um it's not showing up doug it's not showing up let me share mine um i could very quickly bring it well you know what i'm doing i'm double clicking it instead of hitting the little button |
| 30:01 | there we go this is what you sent me half an hour ago or so isn't it same thing so this is the same thing it's the landscape and the other one is just the left-hand side on a portrait yeah yeah okay all right so we're looking at this one this is good good enough so we have a description of what the brown curve and the green curve etc who who's the proponent and uh what do we claim what do we claim each one of these will do and then we have the costs over on the right which that needs to be filled in |
| 30:35 | so that's the big challenge yeah um i have a category over there for issues that john didn't have but i thought we should at least identify you know the pitfalls that we could encounter yeah right um okay who's going to do those and to do those that costing exercise well i think we'll have to have a conversation with john yeah um this is going to be some again hand waving exercise but as as long as we identify our assumptions we put any number in there because if the assumptions change you just change |
| 31:15 | the number so that's something i've learned over 44 years is state your assumptions yeah the only figures that i've heard uh for the cooling technology are stephen salter's estimate um of 250 million pounds a year for running a fleet of 800 of his uh autonomous vessels but yeah so we have some starting points obviously but ridiculously cheap in other words yeah yeah i said less than the cost of the um security at cop 26th and that's right um can i can i ask you know some of these things are perhaps |
| 31:57 | transient you operate them for a while like you know srn and some of these things are indefinite curation and uh it might be good to when thinking about the cost is that you know it's a 250 million pounds a year for 10 years or is it 250 million pounds a year forever well he he was saying that the cost of the actual hardware works out at two and a half billion pounds i think it was like pounds of euros or something like that based on the cost of a corvette you call it a corvette boat which was a complex thing |
| 32:33 | from the second world war and he said sort of take into account inflation that sort of thing um he he said it would be yet ten years of 250 million to actually have the the hardware so i suppose as you say obviously if you have to renew that hardware after 10 years it's different so if it's just a one-off for um you know for five years or something right whereas you know isa against methane is probably uh uh will we will probably never stop right yes unless they unless the energy profile changes radically after |
| 33:11 | we're all gone you know it's it's so i think it might be you know things that things that have a finite life are very interesting and things that have a infinite life have very interesting probably worth distinguishing yeah i think all these interventions here are in perpetuity until the emissions stop like i mean what what can be done here that just fixes the problem in one go i mean decarbonization that that is the emission stopping isn't it well it could be zero or it could be net zero that has implications right right there |
| 33:52 | yeah but it really has to be negative yeah that's right yeah it does yeah and it's not never going to be zero from nature is it now there's a feedback loop that's already kicked in with methane for instance yep that's right and ceo that's what it sounds what it illustrates what it illustrates is that these rough scientific estimates are order of magnitude uh more efficient than current policy and uh but that there is um a complete refusal to engage in the conversation about that so there's something you know quite toxic |
| 34:34 | and perverse within the psychology of uh global climate policy that and so it's really helpful to get this schematic even with its very rough assumptions out there uh in order to say well if it is actually the case that cooling i would prefer it said calling the poles rather than cooling the arctic because i think calling antarctica is going to be um uh politically easier than than cooling the arctic um but if that is um orders of magnitude more efficient in terms of um protecting biodiversity um stopping extreme weather |
| 35:19 | slowing temperature rise and slowing sea level rise than what is currently proposed that is something that should be a matter of public conversation and and the inability to get any of this into the public domain uh is really quite a bizarre aspect of our current situation yeah i think that's a bigger issue than the choice of what method we use there's still a lot of development and learning to be done on each of these proposed processes but the our the atmosphere in which we're in is where there's a complete denial of the |
| 36:06 | need for cooling is to me the big issue we've heard elements of opinions expressed hansen's projection from last july is an impression man was reported in the paper and the new york times the other day saying 1.5 is going to be tough i just looked a few hours ago or an hour or so ago what's bill gates say about temperature rise nothing much except 1. |
| 36:50 | 5 i'm not sure we're going to be able to make that and so the trigger point at which all of these predicted uh disasters are going to be kept is not predictable it's not likely to be met it's the opinion from the scientists and we here are building our case on the basis of our anxiety about that i think there needs to be some communication to bring this fracture of reality into the into the public uh conversation in my own personal contact with people you know you say there's technologies around that could actually cool the atmosphere and they go what |
| 37:41 | you're kidding what do you mean some suggest some proposal that there is a solution other than carbon dioxide uh removal has to be our an emissions reduction has to be generated we have to get some higher level interest in that and i think it's it's a big communication issue it's a huge issue grant i i echo that i echo that experience of talking to people and have them say i had no idea and part of it is because the businesses uh you know like an oil company they talk about what people want to talk about right being warm at |
| 38:25 | night driving your car a huge car with your kids will be safe in it and uh primarily the ngo message is all about what they want look this is horrifying you should join us and when people don't know that there is any alternative why do they even want to listen to that message yeah you know um so i i i i reckon there needs to be a fundamental shift in the structure of messaging and making it approachable and i really you know like i mean some of you say our favorite metric but you say it's cheaper than the |
| 38:58 | cost of cop security right that's obscure but it's very visceral to us and if we can make these numbers uh relatable less than the cost of all the iphones sent across the pacific i don't know so you know some metric that people can actually who are not scientists and are not engaged in the problem can visualize they can't just they can change their mentality oh you know maybe that something is doable right now every you know when ukraine was when ukraine was invaded immediately the oil company seized that |
| 39:34 | right no one there's very little discussion of alternative energy instead it was we need to drill which has no impact on it and think of the jobs that will be lost if we don't do that those are the visceral issues that matter to people burning their house down seems impossible to prevent i think we may do better to also concentrate the proposed solution around one close available methodology rather than presenting a raft of war we could do this we could do that and we could do the other things the audience that i think we need to |
| 40:16 | address is probably going to be more persuadable if they can get their heads around one possible solution rather than be proposed well we're still playing with all of these uh alternatives well grant i was i was going to say that uh you could it it'd be nice i was going to say almost the opposite actually that not to try and explain all these solutions um but to say that there are a number of there are very many diff there are was there's three categories there's the emissions reduction there's the uh net |
| 40:58 | uh cdr and then there's cooling interventions and some do more than one uh some do cdr and cooling because where i'm coming from is people have heard about srm um stratospheric aerosol uh injection and michael mann for a long time has been saying that uh could have unintended consequences and it lasts for two years uh so you can't it takes a long time to stop it um and so this we've had this seed planted that these interventions are are uh should not be considered because uh and it's he he explained it in a very |
| 41:43 | accessible way there was an old lady who swallowed a flight and each solution it adds another problem and the problem gets bigger and bigger and bigger um and and so people have thought okay there's every time you say call the planet they think they they well not everyone but a certain tranche of big tranche people go to oh it's it's stratospheric aerosol injection we can't have that um that that's that's my but i can see your point of view we have the same problem with iron sold aerosol it does so many |
| 42:16 | things that by the time you finish telling people all the all the climate benefits their eyes have glazed over basically so it is difficult it uh it is difficult so i think all the things we've been discussing um of um the moral hazard stuff so you know why are people planting trees why are people taking plastic out of the ocean if this is going to encourage people to continue you know causing the problem basically we need to put down all those alternatives and then to try and get an idea of costs benefits and risks |
| 42:58 | because no no one's really talking about mcb now they're all talking about dak and beck's both of which in my mind are non-starters costly totally agree yeah yeah so the another is who's the audience you have to always think about who's your target audience i don't so the manager of you've got your hand up and just let me just so i'll just say this and then it's your turn um uh the general public is is one you know even the general public you know you've got middle class people you've got |
| 43:33 | people who who you know got other priorities um and then there's scientists decision makers you know uh policymakers and so forth who's the target audience we have i think a key um target audience is the global south philippines etc countries that are being hit most by extreme weather um and i think if we can tell them about things like srm and the fact that actually the you know the fact like uh the philippines have had three most uh uh powerful land falling um typhoons i think they call them in that area and they uh yeah um in recorded |
| 44:16 | history and they've all had them in the last uh ten years and uh they're very angry with their government not doing enough and they want climate justice and all that but that's not gonna stop these things getting worse for them over the next decade whatever these solutions apart from um calling interventions and that's where i think if they were aware there's technology like you know marine club browning or einstein well i mean we had to hear um updates on the solar aerosol but that could actually have |
| 44:44 | impacts on even if using it to cool the ocean in the area where these massive typhoons are being fueled by the warm surface temperature of the ocean um that could actually help mitigate the destructiveness of the extreme weather that's hitting them i think you know if we could get support from yeah the population of the philippines or countries like the philippines that uh being the worst hit but yeah south africa yeah yeah yeah i think they're they're key audiences let me just quickly say that it's that then you know let's say |
| 45:21 | philippines and half the world is jumping up and down saying you know you've got to do these interventions who's going to spend the money and do the research and and implement them so okay um let me sorry bro i'm just gonna take people in turns um manager i think was first yeah i have a couple quick things to say and a question um i lied to three categories um in the teaching that i'm starting to do i'm using terrestrial solutions oceanic solutions polar solutions and atmospheric solutions i'm having people |
| 46:00 | visualize different um sectors of the earth and um i think that the target audience varies i'm purposely starting with the grassroots because i'm only a small step ahead of them and i'm i am a science translator so that's uh and we have some very smart people very educated most of them are climate activists very few of them but a few of them are climate scientists and also i'm reaching out to columbia lamont dowarty earth institute and marist and some of the other educational um and i i think that ultimately the main target audience is |
| 46:54 | the scientific community to create a collaboration to evaluate look at all the costs benefits and risks uh do a cost benefit risk analysis and i i think as john nissen said in in the uh white paper um to create a planning process very soon very rapidly because things are urgent and that brings me to my question as i've been preparing materials to teach the general public [Music] not too long ago it was reported that uh that the arctic is 30 degrees warmer in winter and the antarctic 40 degrees warmer in um these were peak measurements |
| 47:53 | this is not all the time this this is not all the time yeah there was a record and i'm clear about that for for a period of time but i just read 70 degrees warmer and um i just i'll be fahrenheit probably maybe yeah pardon maybe with seven fahrenheit sorry anyway uh i i can send around the links to the articles but 70 degrees is pretty darn scary yeah at 770 degrees fahrenheit is the same as 40 degrees centigrade okay thank you all right that's why i need to start small that's okay we're all here to learn but it was |
| 48:41 | what you talked about it was it was talked about with shocking you know there's a lot in the press about scientists being shocked because it's the first ever um simultaneous extreme to that degree i think literally that degree um in the two hemispheres at the the two poles at the same time yeah they're shocking that's shocking enough um okay brian please yes um good morning everyone so the topic was philippines uh we survived a category five hurricane typhoon rye in december our marine permaculture seaweed platform |
| 49:21 | survived intact just five meters below the surface having and it even had most of the seaweed on it significantly uh systems that do restore this kind of our marine permaculture restores natural upwelling when scaled to a thousand systems or more it could potentially decrease some of the heat in the mixed layer of the ocean east of the philippines and actually provide a ground zero defense if you will maginot lines against the intensity of the hurricane specifically the warm core eddy that was visible before typhoon rai hit |
| 50:01 | um was the fuel that turned it uh rapid intensification from category 1 to category 5 in less than 18 hours so these uh marine permaculture platforms east of philippines could literally defuse the time bomb of these warm core eddies and actually not only provide food security in the form of seaweed and ecosystem regeneration by restoring natural upwelling but we could actually decrease the peak intensity potentially such projects need to be financed by world banks development banks and asia development bank for example |
| 50:40 | and ultimately they need to be community owned so that's the prescription that we have for the moment on that philippine situation that said you know i think we're looking at scenarios that i think all of us i'm now just reading uh ministry for the future um and you know early on they talk about uh unilateral actions taken uh on the part of individual countries like india after major you know hypothetical events that aren't too far away um to actually do a stratospheric aerosol injection to cool off their |
| 51:18 | country which of course cools off the rest of the northern hemisphere and later the world as well so um i think it's worth discussing the things that are in there there are a number of topics including um glacial ice refreezing that we should probably be taking a good look at in terms of arctic cooling and um so i recommend that we plan some more discussions on all the interesting topics in the ministry for the future book and suggest it be a recommended reading for the entire team okay um it's been going through my mind this |
| 51:56 | this format of that we do you know once once a fortnight and it's open discussion doesn't produce any videos at the end of it um it doesn't you know we what we do is learn from each other and i'm don't really have time to go into the other meetings that and any many of these other meetings um are you suggesting brian a different format or or separate meetings or something to there's more of a sort of a working group that has a a goal uh you know to produce something at the end uh i think it's worth our i mean for me |
| 52:32 | it's quite an adventure reading through this some people i'm sure have already read read uh ministry for the future um already but i i heard that kim stanley robinson is already well along on a another book and what's interesting is this is these are not you know uh fictions let's call them science fictions but uh you know with the name names changed to protect the innocent in most cases but not always and i think it's actually extremely apropos and i just recommend that we you know that people get a hold of it |
| 53:05 | start reading it and we should discuss it on future calls okay all right yeah um i just say i've been watching youtube videos of uh peter zeehan if anyone he uh sees him at all uh who predicted the ukraine war today's ukraine war back in 2014. and who said that because he studies a lot of demographics um and uh history and and uh security and so forth um and uh and said that uh the first i think said this two weeks ago the loss of fertilizer production and grain so fertilizer production from the us um and other other places i think |
| 53:53 | possibly germany as well and loss of grain from i think forty percent of the world's wheat uh comes from russia and ukraine there's going to be supporting 40 percent of the world's traded wheat traders most countries uh buy you know eat their own production right the us does not import grain from ukraine for example right okay thank you david there's a much much smaller sum it's about about eight percent of the total grain supply is traded across international borders okay that's very interesting thank you |
| 54:29 | he was saying that there's going to be um first of all he said the ukraine will lose the war uh and okay but it's this is not about that but he said there'll be uh a famine possibly two billion people dying in the next few years possibly the next 18 months uh depending on how well people adapt their agriculture change their what they what they grow uh to support their own populations rather than exporting avocados and so forth and blueberries he said but it'll also be important for for um stock not to be |
| 55:07 | fed grain grain and the grain which would have gone to the stock to be fed to people instead okay so meat production should go down because the grain which would have gone to the animals should go to the people like those in egypt and that and bangladesh who who will die without it right that's a huge opportunity also it's a biofuel from agricultural stuff like for instance a third of all u. |
| 55:40 | s corn was going into just making the the petrol have like five or ten percent uh ethanol in it with absolutely no climate benefit and or health benefits and uh taking out the food chain and the same in the uk apparently 15 of agricultural lands used for biofuel production i think it's wheat here isn't it um means bioethanol and that's going to have to stop i think yes the u. |
| 56:03 | s should temporarily remove the renewal fuel standard which makes uh biofuel or even five minutes i'm sorry to tell you the u.s went the other way last week oh no yeah and most of that biofuel is produced with oil derived fertilizers as well so you're basically just thermodynamically in a terrible way taking the oil out of the ground and putting it in the tank i can't believe that's still happening i mean i was studying in 2012 i did a study for john lewis partnerships big retailer about their they were looking |
| 56:39 | for alternatives to diesel and i just gave a big red line you know no way uh you know bioethanol especially obviously the american corner is unbelievable the energy balance and everything is just it was an appalling um project and taking it out of the food supply when there were no famines and droughts going on it's insane and it's gone the other way great [Music] yeah i just want to go back to the messaging because clyde you said something interesting uh which is you said there's so many opportunities from iron salt aerosol and |
| 57:14 | the problem is people want an abstraction because they're not experts and actually as i learned from arno penzius 10 years ago adding facts to your argument does not help it in fact it makes it worse people want to think there's a little box and you're doing a question that's going to sit in the box they don't understand side effects to drugs you know they don't under you know they don't people most people don't think that way so actually saying we're using this to do x oh what's its |
| 57:46 | effect in the ocean well as a discussion you and i had a few weeks ago is probably de minimis actually without additional work they want to hear the probably nothing because they want to believe that machines have discrete or actually any kind of solution has a discrete behavior um the other thing that worries me about on this issue of opposition to intervention is that we might want to consider talking in terms of the hippocratic oath and what i find interesting about the hippocratic oath is that we have surgeons some of you have heard me say |
| 58:23 | this and surgeons cut holes in people which is clearly not good for them right but it's actually worth cutting that hole in order to get the consequence of doing so right um and so that's not a violation of the hippocratic oath even though it's harmful to cut holes in people and i think right now there's such a mentality we've got to do something magical plant a tree or something like that i think i have to give people analogies or bridges modeling a price on something people understand that's a that's conceptual |
| 58:56 | bridge that's easier for people to understand modeling of behavior oh i see you're worrying about this like my doctor would worry about me right it might be a more uh comprehensive comprehensive way uh or sorry comprehensible way to explain uh explain the kinds of things we're talking about doing yeah i'm sorry i have to drop off for another call but uh i hope that was hope that was uh that was helpful thank you uh david i'll remember that um cutting holes in people but not because we want to hurt them |
| 59:30 | well along those lines uh physicians for the planet uh it's a it's a case of triage you know every gigaton is going to be uh a matter of triage that we need to um consider physicians for the planet means um we you know there will be a side effect for every gigaton we pull out of the atmosphere and yet pull we must do yeah to get back to a healthy climate yeah yep uh okay thanks david uh see you next time yeah uh john mcdonald yeah just just picking up on what uh brian's suggesting about maybe there is |
| 1:00:10 | a way into public communication by getting to someone like kim stanley robinson if he's writing a new book i mean we've got plenty of material here we could feed to him and that i mean it is fiction but it is a prediction of the future i mean this is his attempted attempt of what things will be like in the very near future and maybe it's one way to capture the public's imagination and possibilities by by feeding him now i know leslie field was organizing a talk in california with him uh i mean if we |
| 1:00:41 | could get to him and brief him on some of our ideas that it's not about ego it's about getting the information out there so let's wonder whether we should try and really try to get get him up to speed with some of these new ideas yeah is that talk past her future john do you know with leslie it's very soon it was uh she mentioned in a recent call but she's obviously in touch with him so that may be a way to get to him unless anyone else knows him let's give it a shot so because he does express it very well |
| 1:01:13 | doesn't he yeah i'm teaching in leslie's course this quarter so uh that would be a good thing to do great so we'll look forward to hearing how it goes then brian can we can i say that yeah i'll certainly be reaching out and seeing about this connection and i think we need to engage and i'm impressed with kim stanley robinson's talent for taking a uh likely future and painting it in vivid colors i mean we're talking about more deaths than world war one we're talking about it happening soon and |
| 1:01:50 | we're talking about unilateral security actions of individual countries in order to protect their citizens he spoke with leslie on the 12th of april he spoke with leslie on the 12th of april ah is that what you just said robert that kim stanley robinson spoke with leslie yes uh with her class okay okay it's just happened oh so it's it's it's it's over now okay uh i'll follow up anyway because i'm gonna be accessing this i'm going to be teaching one of the classes so i'll try to coordinate and |
| 1:02:38 | see about uh you know making some connections okay thank you very much chris please yeah i was just going to follow up on the thing about communication uh a new saying about how describing all the benefits the isa is very complex and people just turn off but i think one way to do this if if you can get an expert with the right type to do it is these sort of infographic type tools that you can pre distill things down into literally a couple of pages at most maybe even one in some cases you may have to simplify to some degree |
| 1:03:15 | but that can get a message over much more effectively than reams and reams of facts and numbers which will turn people off as has been said and there are people out there who are good at sort of turning uh the concepts that one may have into a graphical type presentation and so that is a tool that's worth thinking about because it is quite powerful if you can get it right and just one other minor thing i think we shouldn't be talking of predictions predictions imply you know exactly where you're going what we're talking about is |
| 1:03:43 | projections it's a different thing yeah so i wonder if doug grant's uh curve is one of those infographics um it could be but i think infographics are usually much richer than that sort of thing i'm thinking of um literally a more much more com potentially complex but you know it's more the things with arrows and linking to different things it's not a flow diagram by any means or it could elements of that you can have i'm just thinking there are some of them in the ipcc reports i think and i've seen one |
| 1:04:20 | or two in a different context that are quite useful to a distilled complex messages yeah i i helped um create infographics friends of the earth years ago for they call it the eat smart action plan um and it was about sort of you know sex terry and eating reducing meat consumption and had um you know and it has things like uh the amount of um you know waste produced hgo could fill four wembley stadiums and it has like pictures of wembley stadium things like or the amount of water it takes to produce one pint of milk is a |
| 1:04:53 | thousand liters you know i had some simple pictures of like you know cows or uh things like that so the equivalent with einstein aerosol would be um i suppose obviously um good to have yeah i mean yeah all right um could we try to have um to get a a preferably a single graphic for each of the solutions we're we're talking about is something like that if each of us puts in a a very rough cartoon-like sketch maybe we could then get a a proper graphic artist or one of these people to to make that look simple and good and |
| 1:05:39 | easy for the general public to get an idea of what's available for for instance mcb or i iso or or ocean fertilization maybe we need an artist to to make them consistent they're like contributing yeah yeah sketch from marine permaculture certainly and yeah i think we should collect a bunch of these hmm yeah is the the thing about the un with their uh goals they're sustainable but they've all they've got lots of those little is that what you're thinking uh uh what's up uh a little bit more complex there'd be |
| 1:06:16 | some some text and arrows on it so it's not just an icon but it's it it encapsulate for instance um my boy inflates i should be able to produce something which shows the entire process as well as some of the uh effects of it on on a single graphic but i don't have the the artistic skills to make it persuasive so if i put out a rough thing hopefully this this artist or this graphic communicator person will be able to do that for that and the other 15 other solutions which we reckon are useful john mcdonald's you're a bit of an |
| 1:07:04 | artist do you think you'd be able to help yeah and i i'm good at the free hand work actually there's a fellow in in germany who's who put his hand up to help ryan myself on some graphics um maybe he could i mean it should be a consistent uh message uh in terms of presentation but i think it's a great idea to still down to a single graphics for each idea i mean i think my facial communication is this is where we're missing i think there's too many words and too many long publications the public grabs a simple |
| 1:07:37 | message and a diagram is the best way to do that and this is where doug and john's diagram does work well just showing the trains showing the trajectory so i think that's worth a try definitely okay thank you john go for it sir dan yeah so i just found the infographic helped produce friends of the earth so i've got it as a image should i share my screen or just trust briefly that's it um we've only got 25 minutes left and we're still on item one on the agenda ah okay um i could just drop it into the chat then |
| 1:08:10 | through yeah just drop it that'd be good okay thank you then again all right um okay so uh right well can we do this next then uh because it's most closely related um can you say a few things uh robert i asked robert at the beginning about uh your website and where it's where um it's going okay yeah so um yeah uh largely led by uh john nissen um i established this uh planetaryrestoration. |
| 1:08:51 | net um website which i'll just put up to i i'll just find it um so where are we sorry i'm just on the wrong page um no i'll stop sharing so we have a website planetaryrestoration.net i'll put the link into the chat and um uh it's it's got a few documents that john nissen and myself have written and we're very happy to include further material on it just brian clive suggested at the start of the call that's um from your suggestion around uh websites that uh that this might be a useful one to to consider what what is it planetary |
| 1:09:46 | restoration.net or dot group yes dot net that's right here we go right so i couldn't share that thank you yeah yeah so um i thought this looked pretty smart and uh yeah so we've got a couple about and if you scroll down then there's a blog um yeah so okay yeah i've included our conversations and we've had um yeah and right so is this so any thoughts from anyone about uh using this to list uh solutions uh all these things that we've been talking about i said to robert at the beginning um i mean we don't know it doesn't have |
| 1:10:39 | a website i mean i can just about spare the time to to make this thing happen every two weeks um we're talking about all kinds of things so this is just to make everybody aware of this website and what robert's doing any discussion to have on this at all so if you click on happy enough using that website click on what sir robert click on articles at the top right i do have one suggestion about solutions articles are great that they that they be um not just listed randomly there could be an alphabetical list that points people |
| 1:11:27 | to them but you know my suggestion would be to do them in categories even though some are in more than one category and and i like to use the terrestrial oceanic polar and atmospheric but there could be some other logical grouping but i you know i think it'll help if we are listing potential solutions to do it in a way that you know people can kind of focus on one area at a time right i was told by the late jasper thomas is no longer with us robert uh he he said that your website was much better organized than anything i'd done on my |
| 1:12:15 | climate game changes website um and uh you're obviously a very good writer as well at the risk of kind of asking you to do something what do you think about adding some of this stuff to the prague website very happy to but i need other people's help and like i don't really have a high level of internet expertise so um if if anyone can uh can give me a hand then uh then that would be great well what platform is your website on are you using on wordpress or is it uh wix what is it do you know go daddy all right so that's is it their standard |
| 1:12:57 | um included sort of uh website package yes right okay are you looking for s seo you know search engine optimization robert things like that because i get emails daily yeah um it's it's it's the sort of thing that i'd love to find out more about but i i really don't trust people who just spam me about it and i've been looking as i've been looking into wix wix as a possibility for stephen salter actually because he's just set up his company um and i said i'd help him a bit so do you do seo uh daniel well i mean i |
| 1:13:42 | do know a bit about it i mean seo is you know there's uh now the the google bots or whatever the search engines are very good at finding stuff on when people do a search based on a website being a good website basically so if you've got a good you know introductory page that really explains what you do and it you know and content matches the headlines and you're not um [Music] artificially you know getting people to your website and then showing them something they're not expecting then that helps seo there's the organic seo |
| 1:14:14 | and then there's obviously there's some things where you can pay to get found for a particular keyword which is non-organic that's that's paid for seo but if you do the organic one well uh which is basically if you're about planetary restoration and if you have an introductory paragraph a heading that talks about that and it manages it mentions the related topic um enough then yeah yeah the search engines know where to find you and uh put you higher in the rankings basically right thanks that's |
| 1:14:48 | good to know thanks daniel i think this sort of thing is available you only have to google it yourself uh that google and there's lots of people that will explain things like that and go into more detail on that okay thank you okay um all right let's move on uh to where are we back to the agenda so uh so we've got whale migration roots we tell a bit of a chat about this we might want to say a bit more about it um can we have uh we've only got 15 minutes can we hear from you manager so so is that yeah let's do that we're very |
| 1:15:30 | short of time yeah and i don't i don't need more than five at the most okay and um i would like to share my screen okay good thank you um and let's see where'd it go okay here ah i'm pretty sure this is it uh let's see yeah this is um what i am bringing to primarily local climate activists including some people that are climate reality uh trained and i expect with that will come some um either resistance or good questions but we'll see so you know just some basic terminology uh a focus on tipping points |
| 1:16:34 | two versions of the gap the earlier um [Music] thinking and then a more current thinking um and then terrestrial solutions not all of um drawdown are terrestrial but most of them are but it does include um phytoplankton farming or permaculture and and a few of the others and it also has solutions with regret um and nuclear for example is a solution they consider a solution with regret and then um oceanic and um [Music] i happen to throw in otech because dr richard perez uh who talks about sources of energy in the next |
| 1:17:37 | slide um mentions otec and it seemed to fit in with ocean so i tossed that in but then carbon dioxide removal from the oceans and then arctic melting and i make it relevant to new york and then ways to re remove carbon from the sky and a little zeroing in on the atmosphere so people will know the difference between the troposphere and um stratosphere et cetera and then marine cloud brightening and sai um the hole in the ozone i touch on that and then uh some next steps and i don't know if i can zero in but educate ourselves about climate science |
| 1:18:44 | continue to implement emissions reduction carbon sequestration and understand what is being proposed to address the global climate crisis and call for collaborative international consensus building planning process to prioritize possible solutions including of cost benefit risk analysis so i i just did want to share that um i can uh send it around if if people are interested okay okay thank you yes thanks manager yeah okay thanks we get so many emails and one more doesn't make much difference to me at least anyway um thank you and this |
| 1:19:30 | hudson river uh this is so you're in um new york did you say oh in new york yeah from new york city up to albany and beyond right so this is a local community that you're talking with but you said in the in the past you've been a as a kind of a go-between modern um mediator between different groups and you um yeah have kind of high level connections did you say before i can't remember that well i don't know how high i mean you know i can get to anyone in climate reality um i'm very close to antonio delgado one |
| 1:20:11 | of our congressmen and um you know i it's pretty good i can help that's good enough for me in touch yeah okay okay great stuff thank you manager uh great okay um so what else do we have um let's do some answer also news um did you want to say some stuff about this uh sev um just can you get up the uh the link i gave at the last reading and while you're doing that i'll just explain a little bit um basically it's saying that whales are being killed by netting and ship strike at a very great rate three at all 300 or |
| 1:20:59 | 600 per per year and that of course is affecting the the the krill their their nutrient recycling which affects the krill numbers and i'm wondering whether these ships have sonar which can detect whales so they can avoid them is there any way of detecting these uh ghost nets which have been released and are floating around the sea getting lots of sedations from uh satellite photography does anyone know how we might be able to prevent whale deaths these ways i was i was under the impression a lot of wales um interaction with netting and gear was |
| 1:21:48 | actual fixed gear in use rather than ghost nets certainly there was uh something i heard just last week i think about how they had to shut down a fishery in the u.s i think it was for uh currently what it was it was a potting thing because there were so many whales other things getting caught in it wasn't ghost nets it was this was actually gear in use yeah i think whales are killed by both i'm not quite sure the proportions but quite a lot of ghost nets depending on the type of gear actually don't float |
| 1:22:19 | anyway they'll they end up on the bottom and they trap a lot of things or even in mid-water they trap a lot of stuff there so they don't necessarily all float around near the surface by any means right so they're not so there have been there have been campaigns by some people i know west of ireland for example a few people have gone out deliberately sort of using grapples and things to trawl up and catch loads of drift nets off the bottom by dragging their grapples around and finding vast amounts of it |
| 1:22:51 | right what about shipping and sonar do do big big ships use sonars and can they detect whales the only type of sonar big ships have is death sounders they won't have sonars that will detect anything else uh and and they're they're looking directly downwards obviously and not forwards the only the only the only shots and that have uh have have so now to detect a you know floating um um wreckage which could uh ruin them what was he saying at the beginning then do any yachts or smaller vessels have gear which will detect |
| 1:23:30 | when they're going to hit hit something floating at sea not aware of at all no the only the only vessels that have the type of sonar you're talking about are the research vessels or some fishing vessels because fishing vessels lost use sonar to detect fish and so they will have things like sonar that will scan ahead but uh other than fishing vessels and research vessels then no i don't think anyone has those sort of techniques the only other thing around there are moored boys which are designed to record |
| 1:24:02 | um sounds from situations but they're fixed in position they're not um you know moving about they're uh there to detect migration and stuff like that it sounds like there aren't solutions which we could easily use to uh stop not with somebody was being killed that was so now did you find that link uh live or not yeah uh i i and while i was looking um chris are you saying that as chef are you saying uh that uh ghost discarded uh fishing gear is not a major cause of uh cetacean death okay um certainly i i was not aware that it was |
| 1:24:46 | a major cause of citation death it's certainly a major cause of all sorts of other animals being trapped um fish birds sharks a whole load of things this article says there is yeah well it may be it obviously depends where because obviously it depends where the fishing's happening in relation to the whale migration routes um but um certainly um there is i know that some major in danger i think the northern right whale is seems to be endangered off the northeast coast of the us and that and that one is mainly caught |
| 1:25:22 | in fishing in in fishing gear in use up off like maine and um up towards canada up there and that's many whales have been caught in that gear up here yeah okay that's probably enough said on this topic yeah uh chris i was um uh with what i wanted to ask you said the last time you were here so sort of about a month ago uh you thought it wasn't necessarily a good idea to increase biomass in in some areas of ocean i think you said that i don't remember the context but uh well i think we were maybe an iron salt aerosol or one of |
| 1:26:06 | these one of these things or uh i probably aren't let's say design salt aerosol or just talking generally about the idea of putting a little bit of iron in the ocean and then expecting vertical migration uh to put further nutrients due to predation in into surface waters and increasing biomass in areas of open ocean um with kickstarting yeah increasing biomass will presumably some of it will sink into the deep deeper waters and so all the predictions are that any sort of iron fertilization would therefore increase the |
| 1:26:45 | intermediate depth or decrease the intermediate depth oxygen levels because you're going to be using up the oxygen in degrading the organic material so because the type of material from plankton and other stuff sinks slowly and therefore it hangs about quite a long time in those mid waters and uses up the oxygen and also um decreases the ph as well of course while it's doing that yeah so the increased biomass might potentially be good for the surface waters it might not necessarily be good for the waters |
| 1:27:18 | beneath it there's a lot more to it than that it depends on the situation you're talking about when you have the krill pump in operation actually that should not decrease the oxygen in intermediate waters but take it down to about a thousand meters that's one one explanation why intermediate waters have so much oxygen at the moment inexplicably otherwise unless you think that it's the the cruel and the lanternfish which are uh transporting the the their gut contents down so quickly so deep that it doesn't have a chance for |
| 1:27:57 | microbial uh operation in the independent waters well i'm not aware that krill are universally applicable in large blooms everywhere around the world ocean i don't think they are no no they are they're kind of certain areas yeah and the the um areas where there's the big decrease in oxygen and more like the equatorial regions the um and it may be below a thousand meters i'm talking about not just below the surface layer um something like down to at least 1500 meters or so i think is where you get the oxygen the minimums |
| 1:28:29 | below the surface but uh yeah krill the krill situation is different though that doesn't that isn't representative of the entire ocean though that's my point correct anything to say about that friends at all friends but i think you're a muted no okay um not at the moment okay on the spot it's a little bit complicated and the things which are before fast we're not use much uh oxygen and think faster yeah yes and as things which needs weeks they will not become oxidized but not thick saints |
| 1:29:31 | yeah or or pellets from from the fish feces faces and so on yeah what there was a paper i saw recently which i've just remembered which said something like um larger particles um appear to sink quickly but they get broken up and oxidized more quickly than the slayer ones for some reason i'll see if i can dig the paper out i can't i remember seeing it but it was it was sort of counterintuitive um saying that what you'd expect that the big particles sit quickly and and go through to much deeper waters |
| 1:30:09 | um more readily with more material and that apparently was not the case but i can't remember the details now but i'll see if i can find the paper and i'll give you the link next time but the exceptions are for instance also cocolits which are very small but they fall a little bit faster because of their cursed shields and additional they they are not dissolved and they make sediments uh from uh carthage on the ocean uh only if they're above the cancer compensation depth once you get below that calcite dissolves so in the |
| 1:31:00 | deep area is not shielded by by organic layers and these cocolits are sheerly but organically but if you look at deep sea sediments um the the um spread of different types of deep sea sediments the coccolith type sediments are all in areas but above a certain depth the carotid compensation depth the areas where it's deeper than that you get things like red muds diatom oozes and the like so coccolits are not a universal solution by any means and don't occur everywhere on the bottom in in masses massive massive amounts no uh i didn't |
| 1:31:46 | say they uh exist but not only and not only surely not only above the but it's now cochlear is also and the not the most abundant of the plankton species uh that produce material that sinks uh other things are much more abundant like diatoms for example yeah we had uh grant gower saying that um that cockles grow after the horse grow where there's very low nutrients yeah maybe i don't know i don't know about that i think they need they need a lot more uh silicate their diet diatoms need a lot more silica cool |
| 1:32:36 | seems like there's more for us all to learn there thank you chris that's great um uh where are we uh not that one excuse me just a minute all right here we go um um [Music] well uh we're basically on time at time here um why don't i just say that um uh for daniel and anyone else that's interested uh there seems to be some interest in mit people um on uh iron salt aerosol they've been introduced to it um saying hey this looks interesting um and uh the only other thing is paul beckwith has just done a very nice video |
| 1:33:22 | um which i can send you a link if you like uh listing lots of methane into different methane interventions including renault's paper we basically read out the the relevant parts of did you see renault's uh summary paper of their of the 2017 paper on arsenal aerosol i haven't seen that actually is that a new summary he's done uh within the last year right help from robert tulip and uh those chinese uh authors it's what was a short summary yeah oh yeah i think in terms of the lab based research has anything |
| 1:34:00 | further happened there or is that actually got an email pretty much i think it was about this morning for peter koski's uh observed he he keeps going uh observed methane uh he he's got he had something putting methane into a room and something vaporizing producing the aerosol and uh the methane stopped going up and sort of leveled off even despite the fact it was but these are very early it seems to be very difficult to do these experiments properly um all that money was spent on copenhagen and they seem to have ground |
| 1:34:35 | to a halt uh they didn't really they used a very small chamber um and didn't get very conclusive results it seems but they but matthew president matthew johnson seems to be i mean he agrees that it should work um and he's pursuing related technologies using chlorine he uses the same the same method with chlorine atoms the only difference to either is he uses elemental chlorine and uh uv okay elemental rather catalyst as a methane uh depletion method right which is nothing like as efficient as i iron salt aerosol |
| 1:35:26 | which is catalytic and driven by the sun it's it's photocatalytic it goes round and round so the whole thing produces hcl which goes back into the particle so it just goes round and round right yeah um okay uh yeah anything yeah matthew johnson's talking about building a larger smoke chamber isn't he clover i think he's looking for funding to do a more effective test the largest small chamber i mean i hope he is and he's you know i shouldn't say any makes anything that sounds bad we were just supposed to be |
| 1:36:04 | disappointed with the early um yeah yes that's right that's meant to be happening um we just haven't heard anything for a very long time good job yeah uh yes um i haven't been reading the chat uh looks like just a lot of links okay so that's great which i'll put out out we're at our uh is there anything what have i missed here did you want to say anything more about this um brian the uh ministry of the future not at the moment no we'll pick it up later yeah okay well uh any other comment or any last |
| 1:36:40 | comment from anyone if i may i just want to remind people that i i put in the chat um the spreadsheet and if you are reaching out to other scientists journalists elected officials it would be great if we can start tracking that if you have an appointment to meet with someone uh and and then really um promoting accountability uh in in terms of we say we're gonna do something and then to actually follow through and do it and report off and and so we we made a tab for each category of um and i combine scientists and thought leaders |
| 1:37:38 | um you know put those together but journalists are another category sometimes they overlap i would consider andy revkin you know probably both and and so forth but um a way of to the degree that it is um you know practical and respectful to share the information but um hoping that uh people will add in uh to the different tabs so thank you uh okay just before clive i've been a bit saddened that the cambridge people seem to have stopped attending these sessions could you possibly send them a direct invitation for the next one |
| 1:38:32 | i can do um they i thought sean has been turning up to the prague meetings is that right robert you might hear me sean i felt his and hughes uh periodic updates to to noec were particularly valuable yeah uh i don't know if they're just too busy or or what uh we actually changed the the meeting time so sean could make the meetings i don't know if he's disappointed or just too busy with other things to see if a direct invitation does because their students were meant to be attending also yeah okay all right invite sean directly yeah |
| 1:39:16 | i'll remember that um can i just ask before we all go one more thing of chris um i mean you wouldn't be attending these meetings if you didn't think there was some hope of somebody doing something useful do you have an eye do you have your an opinion on what uh this kind of thing might be possible in the ocean i mean we're talking about using biology and the fact that there used to be a lot more in this certainly certainly certain parts of the ocean that that may have some effect on on cd you know beneficial cdr effect or |
| 1:39:56 | even cooling i mean you um don't seem to be against this idea of putting lots of acid in the ocean just i'm only just because sort time for time is all to go to see if you have sorry i think you're on on possibly i can't hear you chris if you have some sort of broad area where you're hoping or thinking that something might come along and it might even be allowed to be researched as well chris can't hear a word uh maybe you i think you must have got disconnect maybe your wires got pulled out or |
| 1:40:33 | something maybe check on the uh can you hear me now ah yes sir no okay i i've pushed the button on the side of my head it's probably by accident um i hate to add i have not i've never encouraged putting more acid in the ocean ah alkaline different story okay i thought it was people doing that champagne idea that it was going to bubble or bubble they're not putting acid in the ocean they're taking the ocean out and then putting the acid in it out of the ocean before they put the water back okay all |
| 1:41:03 | right with it now yeah uh and i i don't know much about it there's very little uh information about that at the moment um i i tend to feel that in the long run um something like ocean alcoholization is probably a good bet um as i said i think a couple of several meetings ago uh to brian i thought that is his concept of the um use of macro algae is probably a much more efficient way of transferring organic material into the deep ocean quickly so an ocean fertilization would be uh but it has been said it the stuff |
| 1:41:38 | will sink quickly through the through the ocean to the bottom brian says it'll get there in a couple of days in which case you're going to get very little degradation on the way down so there are perhaps issues of whether putting a lot more organic matter in the deep ocean will necessarily be a good thing in the long run um and i think it also will matter a lot where you do it because where you do it will it will affect how quickly it could potentially come back to the surface layers come back quicker in some places and much |
| 1:42:08 | longer in other places but apart from that i think it's certainly well worth researching that uh thoroughly um ocean alkalization is another one that's got a lot of interest there's quite a few people setting up companies in the us in particular there's research going on in germany so at the moment i would put those two at in the sort of my front little rank as it were um not to say they would necessarily work out in the end because you know research always throws up uh new questions and issues um |
| 1:42:43 | but some of the other ones may be worth certainly worth researching still i wouldn't put all my eggs in one basket has been perhaps so hinted at earlier i think you need to until you have a clear idea of how well some things work you need to make sure you you're looking at a fairly broad portfolio with things they're still going to be plausible you know you don't look at the totally barmy ideas but you still want to look at the plausible ones because you never know some of them might turn out the less |
| 1:43:11 | likely ones now might turn out to be the best ones you can't tell until you've done the research right do you think iron sold aerosols should be researched that that you know the the idea of very very diffuse widespread i think it's my feeling is it'll be very good for methane i'm much less convinced it'll do very much in the ocean um and my feeling is if you look at iron fertilization that's been done when you put a lot of iron in you get a large bloom because there's lots of iron that will |
| 1:43:43 | and where there's enough nutrients as well and the phytoplankton will go quickly and they grow much more quickly than the zooplankton which means they can build up to large levels eventually the zooplankton will catch up and gobble them up which is why the balloons eventually crash if you do a very diffuse one i suspect you're not going to get much of a bloom zooplankton will always be able to keep up with the phytoplankton and you won't get that much has been my cut feeling but i mean that's not based on any actual facts |
| 1:44:12 | that's my sort of feeling and i think and there has been one or two there was been an odd paper i came across not exactly on this subject but in relation to productivity generally that did seem to suggest that something like that could happen or something analogous happened in some cases where relatively low levels of productivity didn't generate much um sinking of material from uh surface production it must not sink it it can fade the fish yeah but but that then is not gonna help the climate feeding the fish |
| 1:44:52 | is fine uh no it will have to climb because of fish uh a dual faces well yes but that also still brings about the same issues i raised earlier about the organic material and so on and again still no vast majority of organic matter from recycling is recycled in the surface layer something like 80 is recycled you don't get large amounts just because you've got fish that will sink down beneath the mixed layer okay i think uh it should be researched sure yeah fine but i i really i don't think increasing fisheries by um |
| 1:45:37 | fertilization is a yeah i think you you've got a great danger of changing the environment significantly and changing the ecosystem significantly in terms of plankton and the zooplankton all the other stages of life in in the mix by doing this a very significant change by so let's say you might end up with a more of a monoculture sort of uh setup because it worked very well in the uh in the uh ice ages why why shouldn't it work now well the ice ages were not caused by dust of course dust accentuated the ice |
| 1:46:17 | ages it did not cause them um the um milankovitch cycle and the like were the the issues that caused the ice ages the fertilization from dust came along after the start of the ice ages and accentuated the depth of the um of the ice age and increased the amount of material that certainly the blooms and everything else that happens they they must roll down from methane and co2 happened when when the uh dust was uh increased beyond that can you see on the on the ice cores analyzed sure very well and it happened just to the moments when |
| 1:47:11 | death was high and not when milanko which uh cycles happened no but the the evidence is that the cycles of the ice ages were caused by the orbital things of the earth and then the dusk and that caused the dust to rise which then accentuated the ice ages yeah the ice the the fertilization from dust is a consequence of the initial initiation of the ice ages by the orbital variations of the earth and that's then produced the increased uh fertilization and increased biomass that sank in the oceans at that time does it really |
| 1:47:48 | matter what kicked it off chris um well the point is the ice ages had already started and the levels of co2 and everything were going down so the the the iron is part of what happened it is not the whole point yeah fair enough we're aware we we know that um we can see that and anyone can see that the uh milankovitch variations kicked off those uh long very long glacial periods now or less yeah more or less yeah yeah um anyway um and then as you said you're late it's getting late thank you very much everybody |
| 1:48:28 | uh and see you at again in a couple of weeks thanks chris okay thanks bye |