| (Click on a 'Start Time' to view the video) |
| 00:02 | five uh 1.5 uh degrees uh so I think that's quite important but Clive do you want to start off this um session hello John well it's not quite 8 o'clock yet so it's still kind of chat time a minute or so to go couple of minutes can anyone not open their chats my chat doesn't seem to be opening no mine's okay mine's all right okay yeah must be something on your system then um yeah seev yep I know what John I saw that um your comment about that BBC report and I'd read it earlier and I was going to mention it |
| 00:59 | and it clearly was hon at all um the only thing is it didn't actually give a specific reference to the to the actual paper itself that I could find and Herb's email that followed yours didn't seem to either or gave a couple of screenshots uh yeah um so the on the news they announced that um uh this this group of researchers had uh uh had um claimed that uh 1. |
| 01:41 | 5 C would arrive twice as fast as as expected yeah yeah that's right and it was based essentially on updating the ipcc data because the ipcc data only went up to 2020 and they basically brought it up to date that was the basis of their paper I think anyhow they they mentioned aerosols and that the removal this is on the BBC the reporter yeah said that the uh the fact that the aerosols were being removed either pollution reduced meant that Aeros cooling aerosols were being removed which meant that global warming was going toh yeah yeah I noticed that as well |
| 02:26 | yeah and that that made me think of the Hansen paper but perhaps it's perhaps they've published it in order to um pre predate the Hansen paper which I think herb perhaps you know herb hello herb right it it's time to uh begin gentlemen okay uh so let's put all that on the agenda yeah um and um but I see we have a new face uh welcome Bill Chapman um and um we always ask new people to make a brief introduction if that's okay Bill very briefly okay I I uh I'm Bill Chapman I live in Brooklyn |
| 03:09 | New York and um I uh was a high school friend of of Hugh hunt at Melbourne Church of England grammar school and uh I went to Caltech for undergrad and got a degree in computer science um in 2016 I gave a lecture on both sides of climate change to a science club and got very and actually saw James Hansen speak he lives here in new New York and uh speak on a panel and uh I have I have been specializing in Outreach to conservatives because the Republican Party in the United States is is not cooperating at all and um I've been |
| 03:53 | trying to make a dent in that I have a lot of conservative opinions and and can relate to them on their own level to some extent but it's very tribal and and anything the other tribe says we're against and and and and the the tactics have shifted the the latest tactics are that they they they they don't so much deny the reality of of climate change anymore they argue that electric cars are a bad idea windmills are a bad idea um solar Farms are a bad idea they they universally claim that uh the environmental left is completely against |
| 04:34 | nuclear which isn't entirely true anymore so so that's where I am I and and um I I I find reading the ipcc reports the summary for policy makers in particular are are not making what I consider really alarming predictions this Century other than the complete wipe out of coral reefs and and I I I couldn't find anything that looked really catastrophic and and the more sophisticated people on the other side oh there's Hugh and uh more sophisticated people on the other side like Boran lomberg and uh and Steve |
| 05:14 | coonan are are saying that that they're going by the ipcc reports and that uh we're looking at 3.3 degrees sea of warming by 2100 and that no severe consequences will really come of that so that that's so I'm here so sorry say that last thing again I'm here to learn you're there to learn great okay thank you I think um um I don't know everybody's political persuasion here in this group but uh thanks for putting your cards on the table there um and uh but I think your views are not that different probably |
| 05:56 | most of your views are pretty much shared in in large part um by the people in this group uh I don't forgive me if I'm speaking for you for someone that says that thinks no no at least not politically any anyway but in terms of climate um we're all really rather alarmed um in this group okay thank you very much bill um We Begin by um uh suggesting an agenda which we then go through and it's my job to try and get us get us through it all um in the 90 minutes so let's uh do that um look at |
| 06:31 | the agenda so what do we want to talk about today anybody you want to put that paper on that John's been been talking about right so do you want to introduce that John in a moment John nen I'll put you in so what was the what was the paper it well it was a reporting on the BBC news that referred to a paper but not giving the link to the paper um about 1. |
| 07:01 | 5 deg is going to arrive twice as quickly as previously thought I'll put the link to the in the chat to to that paper you've done it okay thank you no I will do in just okay right okay I've sent the link uh in an email which I posted um 40 minutes ago right be good to have it in the chat I'll just do it in the chat in a second usually thought hi Bill bill and I went to school together in Melbourne yeah bill was just telling us actually I proceeded them for a few by a few years I think there you go I was the I was the project |
| 07:41 | architect for Melbourne grammar school many years ago too so I didn't go the though Link's in the chat now thank you thank you uh Chris okay uh right so lots of melbour connections here uh okay so that's the that's the that report um okay good all right what what else uh there's another report that I've come across which was mentioned in a chatam house um thing which said title was global warming why focusing on 1. |
| 08:15 | 5 degrees is flawed basically it says we should be focusing on tipping points which is something obviously that we probably agree with um I'll put that link in the chat as well okay uh FL uh focus on tipping points yeah right okay so doesn't have to be reports could be a question someone's got or of someone else or a suggestion or you know some of us like to talk about our Solutions sorry that was that you SE yeah I could give a report on how the uh the the integration website is progressing okay this is the no oh the |
| 08:59 | so basically the no Noak website yeah well we call it Noak but it is in fact not only the three groups but but other groups as well it's called it's called KN because it's dealing with nature-based ocean atmospheric cooling methods right so this is blue cooling who who's who's the oh this is um so climate Foundation is the other one is it BL calling initiative yeah and the third one is um no no hpack and and prag I'm talking oh H okay I didn't know that okay and prag okay so kind of four things |
| 09:42 | really yeah yeah um okay Bron you've got your hand up yes for once I'm on my computer uh um I wanted to just uh run uh the bunker fuel letter by people to see if they have any comments or other things um the latest draft is we have we have another 10 I think I said uh November 11th for final final comments but uh if if this would be a good opportunity for people to look it over okay okay um right yeah let's see what else I just saw a uh very good um just have a think anybody watches those video maybe I'll just quickly mention |
| 10:40 | that this that that can be kind of last thing if there's time it's good yeah yeah he's really good you've seen it you Bruce yeah I've watch couple last couple years I've been watching it yeah just have a think so the recent video he it's kind of not very spectacular but it's it's very grounded he's saying uh Insurance actuaries are are saying their view of the insurance industry the idea of a conservative estimate is the exact opposite of a a scientist's conservative estimate they |
| 11:18 | they tend to overestimate the risk whereas scientists underestimate and estimate the risk um yeah recent video very good that's that's basically it um just one other thing Clive I've just put a link in the chat to a thing called frozen Arctic compendium of interventions to slow down Halt and reverse the effects of climate change in the Arctic and Northern regions something I came across recently I don't think we need to discuss it it's quite a long report but it might just be of interest for people to have a look at |
| 11:50 | yeah that's quite nice to mention that yeah uh I think that's been circulated hasn't it I think so I I just didn't know everyone necessarily had it but it's there just for people to look at that's all I wasn't going to fine okay all right so that's just uh yeah and I don't know whether it's don't there too much for tonight to do to talk about Marine Cloud brightening and control of hurricanes well I'd love to talk about that uh so should we do that here yeah uh H um Marine CL if I put MCB |
| 12:29 | controlling hurricanes and controlling hurricanes yeah okay um there's there's another thing I would like to add um I could mention it under the BBC News thing uh but but I've drafted a letter in anticipation uh of Hansen's the publication of Hansen thing BBC News thing could be a a reason to uh revamp the paper which is the letter which is actually 350 words so it's a bit long so who's your letter to John uh well it was going to be to to the guardian okay okay mainstream media read read the publication by |
| 13:26 | Hansen but then herb said that the it hasn't been published yet it has right we've been talking about it for months because it was pre it was you know pre-int there was a preprint long ago wasn't it um we just say Hansen this is global warming in pipeline but B basically um saying we've got um 10 degrees in in the pipeline okay uh right uh get yeah yeah quite a bit okay let's start start with you then John please BBC News and a letter to the guard um on the six o'clock news which was just over two hours ago uh they |
| 14:16 | announced that there's been a uh a paper published uh claiming that um the ipcc had got it wrong and 1.5c will be reached twice as fast as expected uh and furthermore they the the kind of explanation for this was that we're removing pollution from the atmosphere and this pollution uh is comprises Aerosoles which have a cooling effect um so I quickly thought oh this must be um H the release of Hansen's paper mhm um which which herb said was probably going a fortnight ago he said it's going to be released any day yeah |
| 15:11 | but maybe it wasn't that then but a lot of people are talking about and then it and then when I looked at it one of the things they were talking about was the carbon budget um which of course is I think most of us agree is absurd you know we we got far too much CO2 in the atmosphere already yeah already uh and what we that's got to do is to reduce emissions there's no kind of quantitative aspect of that um except the aim to to reach 1.5 and now the reason for 1. |
| 15:55 | 5 of course is the uh uh the ti points yeah can I ask did they say um because we hear so many different things all the time I never know who's supposed to be saying what um 1.5 twice as fast as as expected so what what what are they updating it from and to uh from uh from mid 30s to 2029 okay thank you yeah that's very clear yeah right okay was there anything else to say to say about that John could be well I can't say I had time to read it because I thought it was so important I must yeah send the link to you but I |
| 16:46 | think Chris has got it already great yeah they also talk about the importance of other other factors like shuty um particles and stuff like that it's all the the pollution stuff that John's just referred to which are maybe some of them are non-carbon related whose articles sounded like particles particles oh particles oh so particles got it yeah right yeah and the the lead author was a Dr Robin Lambo from Imperial College London but unfortunately the article doesn't give a link to the actual paper oh right well we could probably |
| 17:28 | find find it in Google Scholar so so um have you put a link in the chat for about the article yeah already there okay you speaking Robert the link to the actual paper in nature is in the BBC article is it can't see it please if you've got it um Robert do you mind to put stick it in the chat okay yeah I will yeah that's great thank you okay it's open access so even better so we can actually read it it's also in uh the blog post that the lead author wrote that I sent around a few minutes ago there's a link to the |
| 18:16 | paper in that about 15 20 minutes ago I can try to find that and put it in the chat as well yeah I looked for looked at your email her but I couldn't find the link oh it wasn't in the first the very first sentence the first couple words said you just said here's the the paper you're referring to as part of a blog post by the author full stop nothing else oh okay all right I'll double check okay right then so um let's move on to the next thing um which was yes your letter to the guardian John oh yeah well I um having |
| 18:54 | um not had a response from my from the guardian on my first letter um suggesting stratospheric aerosol injection uh experiment um I sent us a a second one uh referring to the 1.5c because the guardian had had various articles suggesting that the uh we could avoid 1.5c by uh uh doing various things uh so I was going to refer to one of those articles but now this is cropped up I can uh I can refer to this assuming it's reported in the guardian probably tomorrow morning I'll be able to see it and and revamp the letter the second letter that |
| 19:54 | I had written uh which was specifically on the one point .5 C and how ibcc has has um done a cover up uh because they've been continu they've been putting out publicity that it's possible to meet 1.5c and prevent it happening lots of people are claiming they can do this and that uh to prevent 1. |
| 20:24 | 5c and it's now it's clear it's going to be breached very soon and that's uh so net net zero comes far too late to have any appreciable effect yeah when you say this and that you don't don't mean aerosol injection what do you mean sort of cutting or oh cut cutting this and and listening to Nature and oh trees and things like that yeah okay all right any comments on John's letter before we move on I I I have attached the letter to an email which I sent 40 minutes minutes before the meeting started so you can |
| 21:02 | okay we have a look at that then yeah and I put it in the thread on Hansen okay great thank you John I think we've seen your other letter going around so you certainly write very clearly um okay thank you it's it's it's um 350 words so I need to cut it down and I need to I need to make it slightly more topical uh all right but yeah we we look forward to that then John okay yeah thank you for that um okay so this report from chattam house I'm G to try and see if we can get to the end properly today um |
| 21:44 | yeah so Chris um the report from CH house it's flawed I think this is that's right the link link to the article is in the chat already um basically um it's saying that uh um reductions in emissions now to meet 1.5 are precipitously steep that's basically saying that we're not be able to do it uh and they say that um we should really be focusing on trying to avoid tipping points rather than talking about um temperature as such um so that it's a fairly short article it's only two pages um so it |
| 22:28 | yeah so and you can have a quick look at it but it's I think it's interesting because it's it's what probably one of the first things I've seen that talks about say forget temperature look at tipping points or not forget temperature but tipping points are more important is what it's saying which I think is something that we've talked about to some extent already in past meetings yeah does it give a good list of what tipping points no no it doesn't it just talks about tipping points in general it's only a a very |
| 22:54 | short short paper it's uh okay I don't know who the authors are I had come across them before they're um someone called Henry throp and Lori leborn from a group called environment and Society Center wherever that is yeah yeah I got them here on the screen Chris yeah I think who I saw somewhere someone saying um yeah 1. |
| 23:24 | 5 or you know is is not the thing to to look at but radiative radiative forcing that that makes most more sense to me if you if you say tipping points well how do we know when a Tipping Point is coming yeah true but radiative forcing you can see there and then it can be measured that day can't it we can see what it is yeah but but how but radiative forcing how are you going to set a target of radiative forcing Sur that's going to relate to something else like tipping points yeah well does yes it it it certainly does yes yeah but you can't |
| 23:56 | without the Tipping points the radi en forcing necessarily be just another arbitrary figure wouldn't it yeah but what's the what's the temperature for a Tipping Point how do you no one's setting those limits no I know I know it's all very arbitrary at the minute I agree oh I I've written something about uh tipping points and how some of them have been activated already and some of them don't have uh points I you can't there's no threshold associated with them but they are |
| 24:27 | tipping uh elements they have typic processes that have positive feedback and U but that's not really a Tipping Point then John it's a feedback process there are tons and tons of feedback processes all all the Tipping uh Point definitions include uh significant positive feedback uh producing an acceleration in some parameter or or other right but that but just because a Tipping Point contains a feedback loop it doesn't mean um what are we saying here contains a feedback loop it it doesn't mean uh it is a it doesn't mean it is a |
| 25:12 | feedback loop it it mean it doesn't mean it's only a feedback loop so tipping element is something uh a part of the earth system uh which um uh reacts to a some kind of stimulus uh which starts it uh uh um in into a positive I thought the Tipping Point was something that goes into another state that difficult to get it out of that state sort of another state so um most tipping elements have a a switch I I've written all all about this by the way and I can very good but every tipping element uh tipping |
| 26:02 | element is now the current uh term to use I think they begin to use it in papers Point uh tipping elements are can be kind of switches from one state to another and and uh I give two examples in what I've written one is the uh Amazon uh which can uh which can switch from a state of rainforest to a state of Savannah and uh I mention that one because somebody at the ATU last year uh gave a uh very some different Brazil happen at three or four degrees uh and the other example uh is the Arctic Ocean which can |
| 26:56 | change from a state of perennial sea ice where you've got ice sea ice all the year round to a seasonal one where you where you lose the the ice in at the end of summer yeah and that's uh that's well on its way it's got past the point of of uh acceleration to a point of deceleration as it goes gradually declines towards its its final state right it's not going to be exactly a state because you've still got the stimulus from global warming so that final state is moving uh into the future uh yeah is they seem to me really |
| 27:44 | rather that I think the more we talk about tipping points that the more we realize that they're not they're a bit of a wooly wooly sort of thing but the the Greenland makes sense to me because uh so Jason box and others say that when it um reaches a certain altitude um the where the air is warmer of course it's warmer the the lower down you go uh it doesn't matter if you cool start cooling the the Arctic back back up you know start cooling the Arctic right down it's too late because the the |
| 28:18 | Greenland is just going to continue collapsing even if it emissions stop so so anyway John I'm put hauling you over the coals over this but I think I'm doing it because sorry sorry because there's a lot of discussion and you know I find myself confused or sort of unclear exactly what a tip Tipping Point that's why I write wrote this short piece so I'll I'll send it to that' be good yes okay thank you all right Robert got your hand up you've got yep we talk about these targets know one |
| 28:51 | and a half degrees or radiative forcing I think we should always remember that these targets in documents like the uh ipcc reports and other things that are intended for public consumption are designed for ease of um ease of understanding by by non-technical folk so if you were to if you were to talk in any of these papers about RF you you've immediately lost 99. |
| 29:22 | 999% of your audience fair enough yeah everybody knows what radiative forcing is and what appropriate levels would be you know and you get into a whole sort of mess here everybody understands what one and a half degrees C is except for Americans and for them you have to translate it into paranid but you know so so when we kind of talk about these metrics that are used for public consumption we have to recognize that it's always always dumbed down for for for that purpose that's that we with our greater technical knowledge have to just cope with and the |
| 29:57 | second thing is I I think there is a a clear distinction between tipping points and tipping elements it's a actually relatively simple one my understanding is that a tipping element is the system that they're talking about so that could be the Amazon or the Amar or it could be green green and ice sheet or whatever but the Tipping Point is the moment when it tips so the point is a point in time the element is the system that you're you're referring to so it is you're you're you're correct it's just that there |
| 30:28 | aren't actually you can't ever identify a point well this is true this is absolutely true and and is particularly true uh in the case of um tipping of singularities of any sort because their their onset is inherently unpredictable so you'll only know that it's tipped after the event and so but but that doesn't Al to the fact that in principle when you're talking about these things conceptually you know you can talk about about there being a Tipping Point because there is one even if it isn't discernable until |
| 31:01 | afterwards well there's a very important um confusion about tipping points because some people think a Tipping Point is a point of no return that's that's not entirely true because it's made clear in some of it's not true not start tiing points do not equal irreversible change they may become irreversible ible but they don't automatically they're not automatically irreversible by virtue of tipping but yeah but I I think the one point going back to the 1. |
| 31:41 | 5 C it's above that uh that's a kind of threshold because above that uh nearly all these tipping points become do become irreversible or or they've become high risk of irreversible if we could stay below 1.5 that would U very much reduce the risk of tipping points becoming irreversible just to clarify I think the point that one needs one needs to grasp about this irreversi irreversible issue is that this is again it's these are not black and white and you don't know that A System's irreversible until long after |
| 32:17 | the event but the point of principle I think here is a question of the amount of effort the amount of energy think of it in those terms that you that is required to restore it to its earlier state so when a when a system when when an element has just tipped it may well be that in the early stages after that it it will require a disproportionate amount of energy to to restore it to where it previously had been but it's possible but there does come a point when no amount of energy is going to return the system to where it was before |
| 32:48 | because it's radically altered in its in in its nature and it's not recoverable so the but these are all kind of questions of degree and I think that we can get hung up about the terminology here we just need to recognize that you know that when something bad news we want to avoid it yeah fair enough yes just one other point about irreversibility um we here think I I think uh say that we could we can reverse most things if we could do enough geoengineering uh but from the from the point of the public uh they they are |
| 33:26 | assuming it's irreversible by um even by achieving that Zero by 2050 or something like that well that's what you're saying we should say the meaning of irreversibility is completely different if you include interventions or if you exclude interventions that's right yeah yeah I think I from what you've just said um Robert um you can think of I I can now think of tipping as you have to drag something in a certain direction and and then when it tips it drags you instead uh you think of a light switch |
| 34:07 | you not not that it drags you but you know you have to press and all of a sudden it goes doesn't it the light switch suddenly flips it just clicks over the spring takes it past its Tipping Point but it doesn't mean it can't go back the other way it's a hysteresis yeah it's like holding onto a punt pole when your pole gets stuck in the mud at some stat you got to let go and if you don't let go Tak you into water I know for well you because I I've tried not uh letting go it's a very Cambridge thing where we |
| 34:40 | we move the boat with a pole bit like um in Venice I did the classic classic maneuver you were left hanging from the pole then were you John yeah for a short time yeah okay so let's let's get back to back to this um I had a sorry a comment yeah yeah uh got a couple questions and a a comment on tipping points first and I we discussed this at last week's Prague meeting I think it was last week it's hard to remember now but um I recommended and and I will recommend here um I a paper that at least for me |
| 35:23 | was extremely valuable in sorting all this out which was the paper I I'll try to find a link to it uh written by of all people Zeke housefather who seems to be writing everything I don't know he seems to be working 24 hours a day but he and some colleagues wrote a paper last year on tipping points and they have a really valuable sort of Matrix where they look at each point whether it's reversible or irreversible at what temperature other characteristics of it uh and and so forth uh and you know and |
| 35:54 | in addition it's the first place I've ever seen first paper not that I read all the literature or understand it all but it's the first paper I've seen that actually makes an estimate of the cumulative effect of cascading tipping points interacting with each other and what that would mean in terms of temperature increases which is to me the most important thing because any one of these tipping elements uh is catastrophic enough but to the degree to which it you know it leads to The Dominoes falling uh over and others you |
| 36:26 | know that's when you get into something close to Runaway climate change or at least you could um and of course Tim lenton's paper as well with McKay both are excellent papers and then a couple of questions for folks so we had an I I suspect a number of you were there maybe many of you at an hpac meeting some months ago we had David Keith a really remarkable session with David but one of the comments that he made uh and correct me if I'm wrong Ron if I'm um you know sort of distorting it was essentially he |
| 36:57 | he's not concerned at all about tipping points and I see Ron is shaking his head yes so I will continue um but he also interestingly he he seemed very um almost exhilarated with the with the conversation with with us um and and would said he'd be happy to come back so we talked about it would be great to have him back um with someone else to to talk and debate about tipping points and we talked about uh trying to uh recruit Johan rockstrom I think it was Robert tulip was going to try or Tim Lenton or |
| 37:31 | somebody we still love to do that so my question is does does anyone have good connections with you know someone like a Tim Lenton or McKay or or others who might be able who have a little um maybe a little um more dire uh perspective on tipping points that you could work with us to see if we can set this meeting up because I think it would be extraordinary may take us a few few weeks or a couple months so that's my first question and anyone can is it does anyone have a connection with Tim Lenton or David McKay or anyone else who you |
| 38:07 | think would be a good Counterpoint to a David Keith who's going to be arguing unless he's changed his tune the temping points are not something worth worrying about okay anyway if you do let us let let Ron know or let me know um as we go forward the the second uh question I have is there Peter Peter wens ah okay I don't know if You' do it I mean he's he's a very shy man and very self-facing uh fellow you know Peter pretty well don't you John yeah yeah you work with him would you be will to reach |
| 38:44 | out to him I never speak for myself I'm always speaking for him you probably don't realize it but that's what I'm doing I didn't realize that well would you be willing to reach out out to Peter and and see if he might be interested or if he thinks he's the you know the the right person for the to go against not necessarily against David Keith but you know it would be to some degree um don't think Peter WAMS would uh would stand up against David Keith you're saying he wouldn't I don't think he would uh I |
| 39:17 | think he would as you say John he's a very he's a quite a shy guy and David is hardly shy maybe but you're saying WAMS has a connection to Tim Lenton I think here aren't you well Tim Lenton would be would be good with Tim Lenton and David Keith would be good uh do you know Hugh Hugh do you know Tim well enough yeah well Tim we run this Cambridge climate lecture series every February March and Tim came to talk to us um uh I think it was the very very very very last day before we all locked down |
| 39:52 | in 2020 um and um yeah I could try and I can try the trouble is with Tim Lenton is he he's got no sense of urgency uh about the ti correct you're absolutely right with that we need somebody who has a sense of urgency like myself what about David Key be veryy I think the key is the science not the urgency I mean you know he's what about David Keith and David David King and David Keith um well uh confus you want to reach out to David King I could do that okay well that's a possibility as well I think that would |
| 40:37 | be pretty remarkable um though you know it actually leads into the next question I had which was the report that was issued last week the TW 2023 state of the climate report uh one of whose I don't know six or seven authors was was Dave King and and Johan and a couple others uh interestingly they did not mention anything about cooling there but but the reason I bring it up is because one of their recommendations was that the ipcc um basically do a special report on tipping points and runaway climate change and my |
| 41:15 | question to to to all of us here is do you think that's something that uh we support and if so should we get behind that in some sort of organized way what's this that the the ipcc um talking about tipping points or warning of B the same way they did a special report on the private sphere and on 1. |
| 41:42 | 5 to do a what they recommended was a special report on tipping points and runaway climate change right so do we want to get behind the idea of them doing a special report right that's my question I asked you saw right uh well when get the politicians who uh determine what goes forward from the ipcc would probably squash any bad result coming out of that so I I think it'll be effort not well spent by us yeah a lot of us here are working on our own Solutions trying to get them written up and things like that so we're not going to spend expend much energy |
| 42:26 | you know right in letters and things we just say yeah yeah yeah go for it you know let's just give you moral support okay well that's my answer I guess anybody else anybody feels otherwise anything like that I'm certainly I'm not going to say no no no no no they should not do a special report on on tipping points and you know catastrophe yes I mean we we are so backed against the wall with so so much bad news and you know Tim Jim Hansen's 10 degrees in in the pipeline um we've already blown through the whole carbon |
| 43:01 | budget and and the rest of them are only sort of starting to catch up and say oh dear you know maybe it's not quite as much carbon budget as we thought you know and 1.5 is not not going to be by 2035 it's going to be by 2029 well we've already breached 1.5 you know it's we're sort of Crossing it in different place parts of the world it's already kind of on the way it's very hard to say look it's arrived what what is what is 1. |
| 43:24 | 5 is it is it when nothing's below because it's all it's all an average anyway isn't it so yeah definitely good idea um her yeah anything like anything like that it's a good seems like a good idea to me anyway right Ron you've got your hand up and then we'll get yeah I so um I I think the Tipping points focus on tipping points is a good idea because that's where we urge the urgent need for cooling I mean that that it it it goes right into that and any any effort we can make to to make that link and and um |
| 44:00 | raise awareness of these these possible tipping points uh also can be used to raise awareness of the need to do something quick to uh to avoid those risks um and that is also uh it's very similar to the bunker fuel letter you know anything that that focuses attention on the need for cooling I think is a good thing and if we can somehow um you know uh I I don't know if the IP CC would would welcome our input into the con uh you know but but perhaps you know some of us could I mean certainly the Cambridge folks and other |
| 44:36 | folks that have connections might be able to uh to uh you know try to try to use that as I I think what we need now is is Broad Global awareness whatever we can do to to to raise these this issue in discussions and uh and and stimulate you know uh some some kind of response is is is well worth it yeah yeah absolutely that's very good point Ron that yeah if we're going to yet another paper saying look the news is bad might just get lost you know uh whereas something's saying look something can be done and there are a |
| 45:12 | range of options there's you know people talking about aerosols in the stratosphere there's people talking about aerosols in the troposphere um Marine Cloud brightening there's different things um then cooling needs to be done and Jim H so the IPC they're only supposed to report on other papers aren't they they're not allowed to kind of make something up themselves isn't that how it works but but Jim Hansen is now saying that there ought to be aerosols ought to be used to provide |
| 45:37 | cooling he said that in in his paper when it when it gets published one day the 10 degrees in the pipeline so yes I think very good um Ron yeah so yeah that's the thing call for cooling but that's the point that needs to that would be something new for most people to hear yeah thank you uh Robert Chris I just want to comment a the main thing about this Tipping Point what I think a novel and possibly quite uh extraordinary development from really getting into the the whole concept of tipping points is that as I understand |
| 46:12 | it the vast majority if not virtually all of the modeling the models that are used for climate modeling are designed with algorithms algorithms that don't actually accommodate the concept of a Tipping Point they're built they're all built on incremental change uh you know and they don't they don't actually provide for the circumstances where there might be a systemic crash and so if there was a um a greater realization of the imminent potential for tipping events to occur it could throw the entire modeling sector |
| 46:52 | into a into a spin because presumably they'd have to kind of recreate their models in ways that historically um would be quite challenging for them because they don't have the thing about Tipping Point is that they are inherently unpredictable so how do you model something where you don't really understand the Dynamics and and the and the systemic complexity is something that you you know that it's challenging to do algorithm I me I think it's really a big big issue that strikes at the very |
| 47:20 | heart of the unknowability of much of the uh the stuff at the heart of this of climate science you know could be quite an interesting thing and whilst I'm talking just one other quickie in the paper the lambo paper we were talking about at the beginning of the at the top of the meeting uh I just had a quick Scan they do talk about one and a half you know happening very soon blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah and the closing paragraph is all about this really emphasizes how important it is to get these emissions under control |
| 47:50 | there is nowhere in the paper that there is any reference to calling SRM or nothing yeah yeah so that's the big missing yeah so even so right now I mean Ron's letter seems to be one you know that's the the the latest that that's the kind that's the uh uh novel thing um let the ships um resume their sulfur emissions in the middle of the ocean I think just saying something like that that's something new uh anyway yes Herb we got got to get on to talking about just real real quickly uh in response to |
| 48:29 | what Robert just said about models and tipping points I think what we've seen the last few months in the way of temperature anomalies and the reactions from scientists like Zeke and others who were Gob smacked and bananas and you know I I mean it whe these may not necessarily be tipping points that are being activated um so it's but but their nonlinearities in the system that seem to be clearly not caught or picked up in the models or these scientists wouldn't be saying what the is going on here excuse my |
| 49:05 | language so you know it's not to contradict what you're saying right it's to broaden what you're saying about the potential the broader inadequacy of these models yeah yeah fair enough yeah okay thank you H right so um Hugh let's let's talk about MCB and controlling hurricanes for bit shall we always talk about website so um this this I guess has come about because just in the last other don't know a couple of days there's been a few emails going on around about it um and we know that |
| 49:39 | we've had some pretty amazing uh warm Waters over the last few months and perhaps the hurricane season is is every year is going to get worse but one of the things is whether we can use Marine Cloud brightening uh to uh produce clouds over warm patches of water um to uh to to prevent the water in the Atlantic and the and other oceans from getting too warm and therefore reduce the impact of hurricanes so there's three things I guess I want to question and maybe people have some thoughts firstly is that uh if you get a |
| 50:18 | little patch of warm water how do you really reliably forecast that that is a that's going to lead to a hurricane um somebody in a recent email said well what we really need is a time machine so that when the hurricane forms we can go back a year to where that patch was so we can fix it um because you know like so many things we can uh after the event we can see what we could have done to prevent this big hurricane so that's the first thing even if we'd had the technology could we reliably decide where and when |
| 50:57 | to use it secondly do we will we ever have Marine Cloud brightening which is sufficiently effective to cool the waters sufficiently to make a difference um and thirdly uh where the people who should be funding this uh research ought to be the insurance companies um who have um a lot to gain in um uh reducing the impact of hurricane so there are the three points I've got to make one is the time machine one is modeling of the effectiveness of MCB and the third is insurance companies and I don't know whether that's a a |
| 51:33 | startup or 10 on this topic that's good enough seems good enough to me uh Hugh yeah Chris please yeah I was just gonna comment on that because um it's not just a question of the Hot Patch where the hurricans initially develop because the recent example of the Otis Hurrican that hit Mexico it picked up all of its energy long after it was already started when it was only a tropical storm and it came across the hot water and and accelerated phenomenally from a from a tropical storm to a class five hurricane |
| 52:05 | in 24 hours flat which is unprecedented I believe um so you can't just look at the origin of the hurricane itself in fact I think quite a lot of the hurricanes in the Atlantic the oest one was in the Pacific um quite a lot of them gain a lot of energy when they get up towards the GF of Mexico where the water's hotter than where they started out so it's not just a question of the origin I think it's important to bear that in mind which is why I think people like Stephen Suter and others think you |
| 52:30 | might be able to do something by trying to get ahead of the where the hurricane is and fool the waters in in the area one things that that was mentioned a little while ago was that after you've had a big huran it uh it sucks the cooler deeper water up and you get a cold a cold uh patch of water behind a big hurricane yeah so sometimes you know there you are trying to predict what's going to happen next and then all of a sudden the water you thought was warm suddenly gets cold yeah the the other thing I just want to mention is |
| 53:01 | there was going way back into I think the 1960s there was an attempt to try and divert a hurricane by I think seeding it with silver Rive or something anyway the um the hurricane didn't behave as predicted and veered off in some unpredictable Direction and that frightened folks because they thought if they try and do this and it goes and hit somewhere then everyone is going to blame them and expect them to fall out for all the damages I wonder I've heard that before yeah but it but it was a real case in that case they actually tried to |
| 53:33 | do it and the thing didn't behave as as they predicted so it maybe we could do better now I don't know that was that was a 50 old years AG or more ago 70 years ago so maybe we could do better I don't know yeah um Robert Chris I just want to pick up on Hugh's last point the insurance sector and then the idea of them funding this I can see absolutely no circumstance in which there would be the slightest interest in them doing this because one of the key things about insurance is that their annual contracts |
| 54:08 | and as the risk from hurricans grows and the losses um become greater what insurers will do is put up their premiums and when they get to the point where the premiums are too great for the insurance to bear and the and they simply say well we might as well just take the risk the insurers will simply withdraw from the market because it becomes that one did before then because because it's AED risk if everybody gets hit at the same time they're just going to come out and and there' have already been evidence of this with flood risk |
| 54:40 | and other storm damage in Florida particularly where properties have just become uninsurable so the insurers have got no incentive to fund this because they'll they'll take the view that it's somebody else's risk and the people whose risk it is they're the ones that should fund it well just withdraw from the market thank you uh yeah there's a um uh the just have a think has a thing to say about that where they they basically say we'll end up with no business the conclusion they come to we'll have no |
| 55:10 | business left in the end up with no business than a huge loss and be wiped out made bankrupt well yeah fair enough yeah absolutely uh John yeah um sorry John John McDonald first John s okay yeah here what you're saying is also very relevant in Australian Waters with the Cyclones already building up here very early in the season I wrote to um Tanya plec the minister for environment to suggest doing this in the Coral Sea or out in the Solomons where there's you know geopolitical considerations as well but |
| 55:46 | uh got the Normal public Serv response you know this we're going to we're doing this on the Barrier Reef already and it will take 10 years and we're looking at mitigation and all the usual sort of response but it would be a natural extension of the work that Daniel Harrison's doing on the gbr to move further offshore offshore but um still got to get that message through to the powers to do okay uh to fun to fund Daniel Harrison is this well he's he's getting good funding but he's he's very he's |
| 56:20 | he's at at pains to say that he's not into geoengineering that is only focusing on the local Regional solution to the gbr which is very important uh he's not he's not venturing into into geoengineering so what you're saying is the message needs to get out there about you know actual geoengineering using of um yeah yeah yeah yeah okay thank you I get the droplets right before although I think that what Daniel Harrison is doing is is regional around the Great barer Reef that's right so if the message |
| 56:50 | could be even with sort of hurricans that it's regional around the path of a particular uh uh suspected hurricane path so you know if it can be labeled as Regional I think that means it ceases to be geoengineering in the big in the bigger picture um I mean stratospheric aerosols can never be Regional so that's very hard to label that is anything other than geoengineering but what Daniel Harrison's doing he can get away with with it labeled as Regional that's that's speaks very strongly about doing in the |
| 57:27 | Indian Ocean MCB of course to reduce DRS and bushfires and Cycles coming in from that side as well so it's a good reason to test this stuff yeah reg Regional engineering or Regional eco eco repair or something yeah absolutely yeah okay thank you John and John niss yeah I I've read something very positive about Marine Cloud brightening and possibility of reducing intensity of of hurricans if they originate not in the uh in the Pacific of Mexico but in in the Bay of Mexico the Gulf of Mexico I mean um paper by dou MC |
| 58:13 | Martin he's also specialist in stratospheric aoso injection interesting coming from him and he's he's taken the kind of uh uh figures for the 18in mode uh particles yeah you know if you if you could brighten clouds successfully they can vote to the kind of Maximum reasonable degree which he says is kind of 18% or something uh um then you could produce 8. |
| 58:59 | 4 watts per meter cooling required a large re region 8.4 yeah that's quite good over that um so that's kind of roughly 2% of the incident radiation from the from the Sun but but that's 340 from the Sun so was very hopeful when I uh read about the um a recent hor hurricane that um that accelerated very very quickly everybody was surprised and so I looked into why was was the surprise and I found uh it was due to guess what jet stream jet stream had stuck just north of where the hurricane was forming and it it had the effect of |
| 1:00:01 | amplifying the H Hurrican very interesting so uh refreezing the otic could actually help uh reduce not only reduce uh the tendency of hurricans to get stuck in one place which caused terrible flooding in Texas or all to divert them which is happened to one of the horrific that went up the east coast and then turned towards New York but in this case it's actually doing an intensification so getting that jet stream behaving more normally would be a fantastic thing for the for the planet yeah yeah agreed John yes thank you yeah |
| 1:00:50 | uh Ron please yes thank you CL um I I'm just I was going to try and put this in the chat but I I realized be too difficult um PE I just I want to my understanding is that any significant cooling anywhere on the planet at any time can U result in can have exter you know effects Elsewhere on the planet uh you know if it's significant cooling uh you know the the wind flows all these all the the currents etc etc could move that so I'm not uh you know particular with particularly with say polar s you |
| 1:01:31 | know some kind of attempt to do it regionally where the the aerosols will fall out more quickly you know just in the ideally just in the summer months uh that would be a a very specific local uh you know effort to to to create aerosols over that area over a particular period of time uh that uh you know would be very similar to any other kind of effort to reflect sunlight at any particular place in every particular time I mean it might be a little bit longer could be you know through throughout the summer hopefully |
| 1:02:09 | uh and a little bit larger higher leverage uh but I you know I I'm just kind of curious about your understanding of these things because that that issue has been raised as a as a um you know as kind of a ique of of s that uh you talk it to me Ron yeah yeah but I mean you know so I'm so I'm thinking you know I mean my my proposal to sort and it's not just me I mean the polar thing is a Cornell and uh you know other people have proposed that um but the idea would be to you know do it regionally just as kind of similar to |
| 1:02:51 | what Daniel Harrison is the way he's kind of framing his effort on the the great Barry reef and say you know we're trying to cool the Arctic and and you know involve all the indigenous folks and you know try and try and create a broad acceptance for for just among the Arctic Nations and what to do it regionally and um I don't see you know how that would be all that different at least in the beginning it's true what John says I mean I hopefully it would have beneficial ramifications on the jet |
| 1:03:22 | stream and other things which would then you know uh uh allow for more more acceptance for for a more a broader effort but I don't see it as that different necessarily let me Regal MCB or Regional tropospheric or whatever yeah yeah unless as someone else here we don't have Stephen here this evening Steven Suter um but I can give what you know as I understand uh the in the troposphere there's a lot of water vapor and uh aerosols you know they make clouds they you the aerosol particle um a droplet grows on the part so when the |
| 1:04:05 | aerosol particle get goes up to where the air is super saturated it's it's it's so there's so much water vapor the air can't hold it and so this water VAP doesn't know where to go that that's the due Point that's the same thing that happens in the evening when the Dew forms on on the on the leaves on the grass and stuff like that so this is where where a cloud forms but that can happen in the daytime um at a certain altitude where where the air is that cold that the the water is super |
| 1:04:31 | saturated with water vapor and a cloud that's when a cloud forms and the reason it's sort of this white thing is because the air always contains you know thousands and thousands of Aeros well several hundred aerosol particles per cubic centimeter usually at least tends to be less over the ocean so that's what why you get clouds in the troposphere and then we know what happens to clouds they the after a point you know the droplets grow grow they get bigger and bigger this is the accumulation mode and |
| 1:04:57 | then they get so coarse that they too heavy and they just fall out and you get rain in the in the stratosphere you don't really get clouds very very very few clouds in the stratosphere you get these polar stratospheric clouds very occasionally in in the springs of of the Arctic you in the polar Springs uh Antarctic mainly um but so these particles in in the stratosphere that they're just they're not clouds they're just particles that are aerosol particles reflect ing Sunshine uh doing it doing it very well but the thing is |
| 1:05:29 | they don't get rained out they just stay there they blow around and um so we're there's a hope that because we know that um the general movement of the air in the stratosphere is to move from the pole from the equator through down up to the poles and then comes down um descends but that's um a huge oversimplification because we know that the system one we've got the jet stream going around and it's undulating now so I wish I could find there was saw a YouTube it was about minute and a half |
| 1:06:03 | it looked like the sort of thing that Doug M Martin might have done very very nice modeling of stratospheric aerosol injection where there was little bit of aerosol and it just sort of but it blew around all over the place you know eventually before it was all around the whole planet so that that's the big difference between a stratospheric aerosol you know intervention and a tropospheric which is which ends up making a lot of clouds so it begins in the troposphere it begins as a sort of haze so what st's talking about is you know |
| 1:06:33 | sea salt uh sea seawater particles that partially uh evaporate so you end up with a sort of salty rather salty droplet um but at the point where it you know happens to go up uh into the air to an altitude where it's super saturated well you you find that there's already a cloud up there you know because there's always a soul particles but if you've got additional this is Marine Cloud brightening if you've got additional little particles they add to the number of particles in the cloud so they become |
| 1:07:06 | denser so it becomes and and there's always evaporation and recondensed condensation Scavenging going on so you end up with more slightly smaller particles a larger surface area more reflectivity you were going to say yeah so I I I hear what you're saying and I I don't want to I mean I'm not an expert on this obviously so I don't I don't wantan to but um we're all learning this I have seen I I do believe I've seen some estimates you know the Cornell people in particular that you know |
| 1:07:34 | that that that will fall out within four months or six months or whatever it is uh if you do it in the in the polar regions and and the broader question is though because I I don't want to debate the the technicality of these I'm not really not uh not qualified for that but but the Theo question is you know yeah the uh you know even mir's you know y's method or any of these methods if you have a signific if you actually achieve significant cooling you know it's it it it's inevitably going to affect the broader |
| 1:08:09 | picture you know if particularly if it's over a large area so so there's not you know this this anyway that that I think that's my that's my BR if it really does come out isolate these things that well yeah if it really does come out of out of the stratosphere and there's hardly anything left by the winter then that's pretty good I have to agree that it would provide some pretty valuable cooling to the to the polls it's helped to to strengthen the jet stream as John you know often says and he's absolutely |
| 1:08:38 | right um yes yeah yeah and it furthers I think Hugh's point that you know that you know that Stephen always talks about well we need we need some kind of you know method to to to artificial intelligence to to to send our ships around you the albo yachts in the you know in the best places at the best times and and one of the benefits of uh MCB is that it falls out very quickly actually so that you know it's not permanent so you can you can you it's it's flexible but anyway yeah I think I think we've we've we've uh We've |
| 1:09:11 | covered that yeah covered it you know I just like to say that that uh it really I learned a lot from the hpack um presentation that Alan gadan spoke at um or some things were kind of uh how do you say Consolidated in my mind and sort of strengthened um and you know he mentioned water vapor in the air so the warmer it gets the more water vapor the air can hold and water vapor is itself a greenhouse gas so the warmer it gets the warmer it gets this is another you know positive feedback self-reinforcing feedback about that on |
| 1:09:47 | your comment on the letter and and he he he he dismissed it maybe some you want to take up with stepen yeah so that's why I took it what about water that was not uh I think it was Stephen said it was not not a not a factor well so anyway that's I'd like to see him arguing with with Alan gadan about that because Alan Gad In This Tropics you yeah okay so but water water vapor is not a greenhouse gas but I think his the concern that adding sea salt as a as a PR precursor for aerosol you know from from a fuel that that would create water |
| 1:10:31 | vapor and that that that would you know offset the aerosol cooling uh he uh Stephen seemed to be dismissing that so yeah yeah fair enough I wasn't too sure about that so yeah Fair um yeah what what let me just make say what I'm saying here that so this is Hughes point2 can it be done can any cooling be done with with Marine Cloud brightening um and um well as I see it and France I see you you've joined us now France we started an hour earlier today you might have missed that um uh so Alan was saying there's an |
| 1:11:10 | enormous amount of heat uh absorbed in the atmosphere from the extra water vapor in in the tropics which then goes towards uh the you know the subtropics and the temperate regions and when that um water VAP condenses it gives off an enormous amount of latent heat so there's kind a lot of heat storage you know water we know the oceans store a lot of heat and water vapor in the air when it finally condenses that gives off a lot of heat and so if if if you can cool the uh the hottest places first then you're kind of |
| 1:11:45 | um you're kind of killing the animal in the heart as it were you know you're you're you're stopping the problem at its worst where it stops you're stopping it because it's kind of spreading as as it were because the heat goes from from hot to cold heat flows from from warm to cold energy goes from warm to cold so if you can this make sense uh do the start the cooling in the in the equator in the equatorial regions then you're preventing this huge amount of additional water vapor going into the |
| 1:12:18 | Earth which absorbs a huge amount of extra heat from the sun right where it's the strongest and so when it then migrates into the sub uh subtropical and more temperate regions it's not dumping as much heat into those places so there's less water vapor there to absorb more heat from the Sun and so on and so forth until it gets to the poles and so everything gets cooled if you start from from the place where it's hottest so then the question is well can you can you actually do it well I don't know how |
| 1:12:47 | many times we've brought up the the gr the um Maps the NASA Maps where you can see chlorophyll in one map map of the globe and clouds in the other map and you see that wherever there is chlorophyll there's a lot of cloud cover and wherever there's you know in the middle of the Pacific you know the Big G middle of the big oceans there's not a lot of chlorophyll and there's not a lot of cloud cover either so it it seems straight forward to me we know that chlorophyll gives off this demethyl |
| 1:13:22 | sulfide it turns to SU dioxide which oxidizes sulfuric acid it's very hydroscopic it absorbs a lot of water makes it easy for clouds to form and we now and this is another thing Alan gandan said he said the experiment has been done we're now removing the pollution from the shipping and suddenly seeing the SE temperatures rise up accelerated they're accelerating temperatures and so it's very clear and so it's the high it's the the chemistry of it um the H you know a substance that absorbs ABS water very easily sulfuric |
| 1:13:55 | acid doesn't matter if it comes from phop platin or shipping pollution it's still sulfuric acid and so but it doesn't have to be sulfuric acid what Fran has suggested which seems very good idea to me is to make particles initially with you just do it with silicon uh we can make a um almost like silicone tiny tiny particles we think we can make them much less than 100 nomers but if that's not if that doesn't absorb water in a cloud and make it a haze we can add aluminium chloride that's very |
| 1:14:31 | easy to sublimate uh you to make it into a gas and get it to uh condense onto these uh silicone particles tiny you know nanop particles that's easy to do uh and that's ra rather more B benign we think than sulfuric acid I mean sulfuric acid can't be that bad because F plank have been doing it for over a billion years uh so um obviously it's the other pollutants that that it's it's a big big whole mish mash that comes from shipping and other pollutions and black brown particulates and so forth so we think |
| 1:15:07 | there's we think there's plenty of scope and we've written to Stephen and said and and France said look you don't need um expensive equipment you can have pretty simple chemistry equipment you know glass bottles and pipes and you know make sure you have a fume Hood where if you where you're pouring your um chemical and you need tiny tiny so I said to Steven the amounts of aerosol that we need for his spray tunnel are truly tiny four micrograms per cubic meter so he's God I don't know even if |
| 1:15:41 | it's 100 cubic meters so that's 400 micrograms that's still a th less than a thousandth of a gram you know the total aerosol so it's to me that seems practical because we have a VA we have vast oceans you know the atmosphere is vast when it's sort of like 20 10 to the 23 particles are needed in the air at any one time uh additional particles 10 to the 23 so that's you know 10 with 103 zeros that that many particles so they need to be very tiny and very light and so it works out you know other than a million a |
| 1:16:20 | million tons or so and it's about $500 million dollar per year that's that's within the you know within the Realms of possibility given the billions are spent all the time on all kinds of things so I think I think it can be done and you saw my I think you saw my picture I'm trying to you know um release I'm working on a white paper and that's taken from my white paper um which France hasn't even seen properly yet um but we we discussed uh Greenland didn't we France uh this the |
| 1:16:53 | Spy down Greenland cabatic winds so again this this is the the air coming down from the upper troposphere down onto Greenland and it just blows to the side it seems to us you know if you can have a fairly large UAV that can fly for uh thousands of miles dispersing an aerosol it's going to You' probably need a fleet of them flying one out of the other and this Aeros aerosol Haze will in the summer months you can only do it you can only do any useful Cooling in the summer months you make clouds well in the winter of course they're just |
| 1:17:26 | going to trap heat actually it turns out for the for the fall as you say and the spring that' also mainly trap heat it's only really in the summer months that it works in the in the Arctic but you can do it all year round in in the tropics so but we we we need someone so I'll just say this last thing I want to hog the space too much um you know the blue cooling initiative uh people D and Buel just while we're here uh I said um oh there's this other great group I think the prag people they're looking to |
| 1:18:00 | raise 5 million uh dollars or whatever it is for Steven Suter and she said why are they doing the same thing as us uh why don't we just join forces so I said I can't I don't want to curb their enthusiasm um she said well it's best if why don't we just join together so I just just say that she's inviting a sort of close collaboration cuz I think when when there's a bigger group with lots of credible people the whole thing looks maybe e maybe it's easier to raise money but I'm still working on my white |
| 1:18:34 | white paper I'm going at it basically I'm going at it folks believe me okay um Robert you've got your hand up I just wanted to uh add a comment in response to Ron's remark because I have to say that I totally and utterly agree with him about this issue of um the impact that Cooling in one place would have elsewhere I we have to remember that the that the climate system is totally integrated you know there is it's one continuous thing that spans the planet vertically and and aerially and so |
| 1:19:11 | obviously if changes anywhere are going to going to make changes everywhere and one of the problems that I envisage here is a methodological it's kind of an epistemological problem in a way that if policy makers say oh ah well look we can't do this local thing here without understanding what the impact will be over there what you get into is a process where you're effectively trying to create weather forecasts on a sort of day byday basis you know and we know from the actual weather forecasts that |
| 1:19:45 | we have on a day-by-day basis how accurately are you know with a day or two or three days ahead so the idea of of having of being able to model this in any kind of supercomputer seems to me to be totally and utterly fanciful and I think that the only way that the really important point that Ron is making can be accommodated is through empirical experiments in the field you know you've actually got to get out there and do it all right at small scale initially in order to keep the risk slow but the only way you're going to get answers to those |
| 1:20:19 | questions about what happens if I do this here how will it affect things over there is to do it because the modeling is Never Gonna is never going to tell you with that degree of precision you can't microdel this stuff so I think the point that you're making Ron is absolutely critical and it and what it points to me is again that the emphasis on the need for getting out there and doing field experiments and getting that whole learn by doing trial and error juristic process actually underway I think AI would help AI would AI would |
| 1:20:57 | help with this as well yeah by by that was the point I wanted to make very good yeah thank you yeah if we can trust the process I think part part of our problem is lack of trust that you know they'll they'll invest some money and say oh that'll do right we'll just do that um even if then they'll say something else process about trusting the people uh trusting the people yeah yes that's all right then yeah that's that's what I should have said trusting the people yeah the people in charge um |
| 1:21:28 | I'm absolutely with you as well Robert Chris yeah get out there and and try it do do as much modeling as you can you think it through as much as you can first before you start committing millions of dollars um just so that you don't make stupid mistakes um but but then you know what because we we're we tend to our arguments tend to just go round and round you know this person thinks this and someone else thinks that we'll find out that's the whole thing of science you then you then do it and then |
| 1:21:55 | find out who's right otherwise your just arguments just go on forever can we get on the my stuff now yes uh uh John but John's got one of the advantages of stratospheric aerosol injection is that it does produce a pretty uniform uh Cooling and it's it's as close as one could get to turning down the solar constant uh and but you can restrict it to uh north of a certain latitude or south of a certain latitude uh because of the breu dopson uh circulation if you can rely on breu dopson well this is this is okay why we |
| 1:22:41 | need to have some uh some some trials why proposing an experiment um okay let's move on John um I think because I think think we've done that one to death don't forget that that's a huge advantage of stratospheric aerosol injection okay big Advantage okay thank you John that's the point big Advantage right um uh seev website okay yeah our three groups that's n HP and prag have come to realize that direct climate cooling methods are the key to restoring the climate and the oceans to health and that the IPC the current |
| 1:23:23 | scientific political consensus have got the strategy back to front now as we understand that small and financially NE negligible groups such as ours um uh even with some great ideas cannot by ourselves make the necessary uh changes in investment so we need to establish the basis for others to join us in an organized movement now one way of doing that is by establishing a website linkable to other organizations with congruent aims that showcases and evaluates prospective DCC Methods at the same time as helping to |
| 1:24:10 | matchmake Consortium development amongst funding research government agencies inventors Auditors industry NOS publicists Etc we've got some good ideas and arguments but we currently lack warm contacts with high-profile scientists funding agencies the relevant media and Outreach Services now recently we've been most fortunate to have been offered the U the the um Services of website strategy and security development by by Bruce and Anton even more recently we've undertaken to try and Link our technology services and the the upcoming |
| 1:24:59 | website with those of the blue cording initiative folks who do have these Outreach Services and contacts better than we have and also with groups like the uh the finland's Arctic momentum folk and and others so we we've gone quite a way to getting this uh prototype website going uh Bruce can give you the the the the uh URL to it um several of our discussion group members have undertaken to provide um some of the answers to some of the key things which we need to put into that websit so people can see what they |
| 1:25:41 | may be investing into and develop a suitable business plan um when we go public as we hope to do sometime well ideally it would be just before cop 28 but that may that may not be possible the blue blue carbon initiative folks uh having to say they need a bit more time to do things so we may not make that but it'd be nice if we could and U um so we're trying to get this assessment this this uh uh uh comparison assessment of various DCC methods going so that the scientific World governments investors can can |
| 1:26:35 | choose which bits look most of interest to them and so we can also be the the the matchmakers who can help the the funders meet the research scientists who want to do the research to develop prototypes and whatever to the business folk who want to run businesses from it and whatever and this is all looking pretty good um if we do go public we think that maybe Brian V hson would be of the climate Foundation would be be our a good choice for our public face um we don't have many good people who are comfortable talking in public but he he |
| 1:27:18 | is and and um so we're hoping to get this website going pretty soon the just recently BCI have contacted us through the Nautilus group with with jacko's son in curau and they they now seem interested in running some boy and Flake trials in curo uh uh using the the the formulation I've gotten maybe the the Mis CMS and if we can get that happening then we'll have a small island nation who's already very uh supportive of the blue carbon folk and their project there doing the the same sort of thing which uh Daniel |
| 1:28:11 | Harrison is doing up on the great Barry Reef only doing using a different method because the the the buy and flakes not only do they request carbon but they also brighten the sea surface and brightening the sea surface also gives albino enhancement as do clouds and we're hoping that this will be a a a a little but important uh prototype trial of the technology which I notic to David King who's only four days ago put out a a a a um a YouTube where he mentions uh uh the the the use of of uh of rice husks and |
| 1:29:04 | and lignan he's proposing I think using um uh glacial flour rather than than the the the uh mineral waste which I proposed but either either way should where's this going now SE this is starting off about the website and yes the website is the key thing yeah have you got a request in here or what is it what's your main point you're trying to make here I'm giving you a upto-date briefing of where we're at with this website development and where we hoping it's going to go yeah okay great yeah |
| 1:29:41 | and it's coming along um um last time I looked at it it was looking pretty good I thought um you're going to do the homepage I think rewrite the homepage did I say I was going to do that yep y um um various other members of ours are going to put their two Bobs worth in for their for their pet project Steven SS is going to be doing his John McDonald's gonna be doing his uh uh Robert tulip who said he's gonna put in something and and I think Brian Von hson is so hopefully we're going to get those those |
| 1:30:20 | uh answers to some of my queries about uh uh how do we address these problems uh in into the into the website with good Solutions and so we can go ahead with the uh reworking my subjective scorings so people can tell what we as a group or as a Triad or quadrad uh uh reckon are the most prospective direct climate coding methods including ining SI and and and and your stuff with the with the uh the L but also including Steven's uh wave and yeah there's tons of stuff whatever yeah yeah yeah should we have a |
| 1:31:05 | quick little look at the website folks yeah now we've pretty much had had our time so if you've if you um if you've got something else to do at um you know at this time then you know that's fine we we'll just wave goodbye and and that's it thank you for attending and see you hope to see you in a couple of weeks um Jonathan wonderful to have you in we you've turned up towards the end if you come along again I'll ask you to introduce yourself but not now not not right at the very end um so let's have |
| 1:31:38 | should we um have a brief look at the website because I think it deserves a look uh sorry but before we do that Ron just just for a um a second or two is Ron still there I'm here uh just the yeah the link to the letter is here and I would really appreciate comments uh especially uh people like Chris you know who have some expertise in this area uh would be very helpful if you could review this and and uh you know so we can get it finalized and then I do hope that everyone here signs it you know the more the |
| 1:32:17 | more put it out there and say please sign this put it in sort of Big Red Letters this is ready to be signed make sure you sign it then then people like me won't miss it do you have time to help Ron with the finalizing the letter Robert Robert Chris oh sorry oh Chris you he's sort of yeah I I I mean Robert Chris is welcome as well obviously Chris don't mean turn it into something different yeah yeah so that's ongoing then is it that your two of you are collaborating on that well we can do I've I've made a couple of comments to |
| 1:32:56 | Ron already about where he might try and get some traction through some of the NGS I'm sorry Chris can you say that again I said that I've sent Ron a um a list of some of the NOS who might be willing to pick this up those who've got Observer status at the IMO there's a number of those which I've given Ron the the access to in fact there is a great long list of all the observers but I've just picked out about half a dozen or so who seem more relevant so so Chris you would you I mean so in terms of getting it to the |
| 1:33:32 | IMO what would be the best method to do that well I think it to get ATT traction you really need to get someone who's who's actually attends the meeting officially and therefore you Pro unless you can get a state to pick it up which probably is not so likely you're more likely to get traction from from an NGO and I think those half dozen or so NOS that I mentioned I would try i' get the less of them and say you this is what we we think needs to be done um you know are you willing to sort of raise this at |
| 1:34:05 | the meeting sort of thing because the next meeting of the mvpc is I think in February or March next year okay thank you yeah Allan is has I think offered to help so yeah yeah one other very quick comment curo is actually part of the Netherlands it's not an independent state by the way so any legal issues will fall under the Netherlands all those those States in that part of the world ruber and so on are all technically now part of the kingdom of the Netherlands okay right okay so thank you both for that uh right so the website |
| 1:34:46 | um uh I'm sure I looked at it recently but um can you can you remind us uh Bruce uh I just put in the chat you sucked it in the chat great yeah uh right perfect thank you yeah um well yeah so here's the home uh right so then we've got the te list of Technologies and everything expands out like this so we've got that so we we did I say this in a recent meeting uh Bruce and seev and I sat discussed for about an hour and tried to Define what is a technology what is a method what is a project and |
| 1:35:30 | what is an effect uh they're all different things so we've got these Technologies here like buoyant flakes um these are all list of techn methods is it but it says Technologies here yeah sorry okay yeah yeah yeah thank you all right so here we go Technologies um so a small number of Technologies yes thank you uh Seb um so ocean fertilization Marine Cloud brightening yes there it is good and then when we get into that then uh Marine Cloud brightening has these different methods and each method has a bunch of |
| 1:36:13 | effects but we can also but there's a there's a you know finite list of effects um which we can get get from here that's the actual list of effects very long it's rather long list but it's a finite list and so you can kind of work your way around this um and it needs well certainly those of us who've pres who've proposed Solutions people like like me and France um need to fill in details there's still a lot of blanks but basically Bruce as far as I can tell you you've pretty much it's 90% I don't know |
| 1:36:48 | is it would you say it's 90% there or oh the basic stuff is yes there's still a lot of stuff I want to add yeah it's mostly been my way of thinking and we have the meeting a week from Wednesday what feedback is doing what what what else is missing what else do we need to get this thing live yeah so so what El it's for those of us who propose things filling in the details am I the main offender not not entering DET lot lots of folk need to still put in stuff right but but that's okay each each owner needs to put in a |
| 1:37:24 | fairy small amount so it shouldn't be too hard if we share the the workload yeah so all these need tech text it's meant to be a little popup that says what that is uh do we know who the people are because so there could be a um you know how easy would it be to yeah yeah we do know who are the people to looking after each method yeah um we haven't got any individual people looking after uh effects and we've got one or two people who are doing projects for instance uh Brian's uh uh climate Foundation is also |
| 1:38:04 | a project I it's it's it's funded and it's doing some stuff at the moment yeah okay and and the the the the seafields folk is also uh funded to do some upwelling and testing so that's a project as well right so perhaps Bruce there should be some The Tick boox somewhere that says that the uh data has been completed and therefore it is going to be presented to a public a member of the public that looks at the website because we don't want I think we don't want members of the public looking at half half finished |
| 1:38:45 | stuff it's just going to put them off isn't it and so they won't be allowed do they have to be you have to be author authorized to get the the deeper information yeah be authorized okay so no one's should be so you're saying that no member of the public would see this anyway but aren't they going to see some the see some yeah they should only sees things that are complete my point well I have there is an active flag right which can be S I could turn on so when you're in active only and I can set that to be a |
| 1:39:19 | to be just always active projects you mark the ones that are active and then they only see the active ones yeah that sounds sounds good to me so that abil that abil is is in there we just have to turn it on right the ability is there okay so you just okay turn on that ability right yeah so so people um you know Champion their project you know people are some there's a project lead and they've got what of their funding and and and it says what the project is and the project is implementing a method the project and |
| 1:39:53 | Method might have the same name but you know the project is the live thing and the method describes what they're doing and the method might might be implementing you know one of these Technologies and it'll be having effects basically so these are the four kind of um what be sort of um attributes if you like or you know the four definitions that that will that interrelate eventually the projects will have things like business plans attached and and uh you know potential funders uh collaborators uh governance types |
| 1:40:28 | whatever yeah so that'll be in the kind of documentation somewhere won't it yeah and and at the moment um most of my stuff have got all the relevant documents attached as as references so you can go and get the the full full bottle on Bo and flakes should should you wish to right let's let's try that should we yeah click references yeah click click the references tab uh where are we ref first one down click that the top one top one yeah that and CLI click buoyant flakes yeah oops okay screen's too big I need a |
| 1:41:11 | bigger screen anyway like that there you go let's go so much stuff on there okay documents nice so I could click into downloaded they've been downloaded you're saying so they can't you can download them from there you click on it download it right uh did did it do something yeah it's doing right now except it's doing something downloading it so it just downloaded it yeah I couldn't see that on the screen something popped up was on the screen look your down download you should see it uh okay |
| 1:41:54 | anyway yeah and then then if if that again that's right now it's automatically turned on on the public on for the public people you might again you have to decide do you want the public to be able to download the documents or just people who have access to it I think yeah well people who have access really yeah but yeah that's open for discussion or anything you want to be made of you could I don't know but we we could talk about that another time you can get into the details it so yeah so any um yeah Jonathan you got your |
| 1:42:26 | hand up thank you yeah um have you thought about adding an FAQ section across the public homepage yeah I had it there I I just I didn't put it up okay yeah I I enjoy writing those conversational answers to AB broad range of stuff I I tried to keep my focus fairly broad um and one point I was writing them for a website and I was knocking out about 50 FAQs a day um and in theory they could link back to some of the documents in here although that would be even more work yeah sounds like you might be offering s a service there |
| 1:43:08 | Jonathan if you are then yeah you're H certainly the FAQ related to groundbased reflective surfaces okay but I'm I'm pretty familiar with some of the other stuff too back in 2014 I did a survey of what was available then um seems like a lifetime ago and um of course then decided to commit myself to the groundbased reflective surfaces area um but I did do a wide assessment and uh an analysis of you know what was best given the money and time and and skill level so um I'll I'll help anyone |
| 1:43:43 | who wants it with the FAQs if they want problem with FAQs people may not look further they'll read two or three sentences in the answer to an FAQ like um um you know what are the buoyant Flakes and then there's an FAQ that says you know buoyant flakes are this and that they may not look any further which might cut their reach to something that you really want them to see but yeah okay Le at least it helps though um but that's very easy to add we just need someone to say start coming up with them and probably and probably |
| 1:44:14 | putting on the FAQ page please submit questions if you have questions so we get we can get questions yeah very good okay all right so um anything else from anyone thank you for that se was there anything you wanted to add to to all that se I mean it's nice to see yeah uh I think we've still got a lot there's a lot to do to fill in all those gaps really isn't there and get the thing ship shape and um we've all got a lot to do and we need to raise money for our tests that's what we really need all |
| 1:44:48 | this is to get somebody to give us some money so don't need don't even need very much some of us um since these are all cooling methods uh are there any estimates of how much cooling can be produced good question that will have to go in later on we haven't got the the techical stuff to to do that at the moment I I'd be interested in theing with anybody who's tried tried to do it great thank you yeah I'm put um doing what I'm um putting estimates well I'm putting projections I'm putting goals into the |
| 1:45:31 | white paper that I'm writing saying um did did you see my won't do it now um my picture let's let's see if don't want to bring up the um it system maybe let's just quick try and quickly do this is it there there it is yeah I brought these up I've put them out out as a couple of slides recently as an illustration here here it is um and uh just send that out the way for a minute this is what I've done to say that um that's let me yeah so this this is from Forster actually many of you will be |
| 1:46:16 | familiar with the uh the sort of bar chart that shows positives you warming influences from maybe I'll try and try and find it actually uh where is that one from forer it's somewhere here something like here who's yeah here it is so who's familiar with with this yeah I've seen that yeah oh that's new uh it's a new version but it's it's been around for a long time that yeah actually herb circulated the forer 2022 and and I saw it I grabbed it I thought hey and this is great this the up to |
| 1:46:57 | date so there's CO2 huge so these are the warming this is so this is saying the change in effective radi forcing since you know pre-industrial up to now um so we've got these warming influences and we've got some cooling going on as well but the cooling isn't as big as the warming so the overall is warming and all i' all I've done with that um uh waterfall chart is to plug these num in I've hidden the numbers but they they give the numbers on the right hand side there plug those numbers in |
| 1:47:30 | um as as a waterfall chart in a in a you know one of these um the system that I've been teaching actually today uh so there it is and there they are and there's the cooling and we see what it comes to um and that's it we've got a 2. 9 watts per meter squar overall average uh CL you know positive forcing and uh Jim Hansen says that the energy imbalance is 1. |
| 1:48:02 | 32 watts per meter squared tells me well that the longwave uh emission from the earth now has gone up to sort of whatever this is 1.58 if you subtract 1.32 from 2.90 um so that's that's the energy imbalance you know this is this is a result of the Earth's warming and so uh this is with no intervention at all so this is just the 22 2022 figures and no oxidated forcing so no methane removal so then this is what I've done John since you asked um describe it here in the scenario below the warming influences addressed by climate Catalyst |
| 1:48:40 | are reduced by 60% so I've forgot a thing where you just clicked click a button and it solves the climate crisis for you where are we um uh so 60% so all all the red uh all these red warming influences the bright red ones have been reduced by 60% these I call them pastel colored ones are unchanged because that's CO2 that's that's because you can't remove CO2 with with photocatalytic um you know oxidation but methane goes away and black carbon aerosol goes away so they would it's not that they'd all be |
| 1:49:20 | 60% so it's it's an illustration it's saying well you if they all reduced their rate en forcing by 60% you get this much less and then if you also were able to increase the what I'm just calling Cloud uh forcing and Haze forcing put them up so what were they before they were 0. 21 or negative 0. |
| 1:49:44 | 21 and negative. 77 increase them to - 1.6 andus 1. .6 by clicking that those buttons 1.6 to 1.6 it puts them up to that and then that takes you takes the radiative forcing right back below zero which means if this was allowed to play out it actually get colder than pre-industrial but immediately as soon as you do that you've now got a negative energy imbalance which means you you've got a cooling influence you're going to start cooling down immediately slowly but but that's the the sign changes Direction immediately |
| 1:50:24 | you know the change of U direction is calling so that's it um that's that's what I'm putting in my white paper I'm hoping it makes sense does it make sense yes Jonathan you've got your hand up yeah um yeah it's a different issue let's complete with this one first I think it it's a beautiful chart and you're saying that interactively I could choose the percentage of the oxidative effect uh let's see if I can find it think it might be that one or if I can if you want I can do it on a web |
| 1:51:01 | page I can set something where you can do it yeah um yeah it's a for it to be interactive on a web page uh requires a license of $10 a month why to um because that's that's what Microsoft charge to make it interactive yeah I mean this is this is interactive just as a PC you know personal computer app running in my computer on Zoom so everybody sees it uh so that's it so if I put that back to 2022 goes up to there and put that oxidative where that's where we are that's that's the first one so having |
| 1:51:50 | created this all I have to do is say try different things CH change uh the oxidative effect to 60% and these all get smaller and then we can have more Haze forcing we could if we think we can make a haze click on that thing there so Haze increases put it up to 1.6 you do that and there we are then all I had to do was add those text boxes well as a half joking thing U you could put another row across above oxidative effect and say uh donation level and it would have 50 billion 500 billion two trillion you know we could get these effects with |
| 1:52:41 | this much money that's a I never thought of that it's a good idea yeah yeah that's that's the idea to get some funding and so that's in that's in the uh that's in my my uh white paper that I'm trying to get finished beautiful thank you glad you like that gives me a hope gives me hope I'll keep going okay I've kept you all going much longer than the 90 minutes uh I do have one question on a um I was thinking it might be effective for us to to break the idea of um money into different categories I was |
| 1:53:31 | thinking uh of two categories one called science money which is what we spend now and for instance what was spent over two decades on mRNA research before the the coid and then there's something I want to call something like Panic money and that's like the4 trillion dollars the US spent during coid uh a trillion of it was to bring that mRNA technology out of the science realm and into the shoot everybody in the arm with a uh a result you know a product so I think we're going to be experiencing the same thing |
| 1:54:13 | there'll be a few more years of science money and then they'll be at some point it'll transition into Panic money and um one of our jobs is to make sure that when the Panic money arrives it goes to the right places uh for in for instance yay to is is trying to make an argument that if the Panic money all goes to stratospheric aerosol injection of a sulfur compound we're doomed and it's not impossible that there are certain things which if the Panic money is spent on that it'll have a bad result |
| 1:54:47 | or no result so we have to be position so that when the Panic money starts the trillions that it gets it gets channeled into something useful and hopefully we can first get some science money to do the science to to have the you know the results for that so anyway I thought it was interesting to possibly you know separate the money into different categories of of money y thank you Jonathan yeah makes sense well why does yay say we're doomed if if it goes to to um stratospheric aerosol well he doesn't like |
| 1:55:24 | stratospheric aerosol does he John we we know that yeah but I think the polar opposite I think if we don't if we don't panic by put stuff into the stratosphere we're doomed yeah let's leave there folks um we're back we're back to our usual conversation we most people have departed already um so uh I'll see you all again soon and we'll keep going on emails and thank you for your attendance soon sure thank you too Bruce thanks for your help FR did you want to talk to me about anything if you have a small minute yeah |
| 1:56:10 | I do I'll say goodbye then thanks John cheers we'll see you soon yep you missed my email France saying it's uh the Europeans it's one hour earlier now yeah the clock's changed yeah yeah the clocks change yeah yeah I'm going to turn this off now |